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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Confidence in the Midst of an Airline Disaster
INDONESIA · Report · 21 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Three days before the new year 2015, an Indonesian-Malaysian aircraft lost contact halfway between Surabaya, Indonesia’s second largest city, and Singapore, a two-hour flight. AirAsia is a low-cost airline owned by Tony Fernandes, a successful Malaysian airline businessman wh...

Week of January 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jan 2015

President Dilma’s second-term economics team makes its first international trip:Joaquim Levy (Finance) and Alexandre Tombini (Central Bank) participate in the World Economic Forum in Davos, but Dilma Rousseff cancelled her participation due to the inauguration of reelected Bolivian president, Evo...

A High Stakes Budget Speech
INDIA · Report · 20 Jan 2015

Executive Summary When the Modi administration took charge, there was euphoria and a genuine sense of possibility. However, the first eight months do not bode well. The economic downturn that began in 2010 has not reversed, the fiscal situation remains daunting, and a small part of the Indian rea...

MPC: Between the President and the Lira
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jan 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reduced its one-week repo rate by a relatively sizable 50 bps to 7.75%, while keeping the O/N corridor intact (see chart). The move was relatively unexpected in the sense that the majority of participants in the recent CNBC-e poll, for instance, had expected th...

China To The Rescue
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The government announced that Eximbank and the China Development Bank had agreed to extend $7.5 billion in loans.Though Minister of Finance Fausto Herrera said $4 billion would probably be disbursed in 2015, it’s likely that only $1.5 billion will be available to help finance th...

Household Consumption: No Reason for Optimism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Jan 2015

The steady decline of industrial output in 2014 is one of the reasons for the stagnation of the IBC-Br (Graph 1). Although there are some discrepancies between the quarterly variations of GDP and the IBC-Br, they tend to even out over longer periods, during which the IBC-Br acts as a good proxy f...

Weekly Tracker: January 18-24
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jan 2015

Executive Summary As ISIS and Yemeni al-Qaeda urge their followers to attack Europe, authorities in large EU countries remain on high alert, leading us to think that Charlie Hebdo-like incidents may occur more frequently. Ankara, too, remains deeply concerned about contagion from fundamentalist t...

Bad Ending for a Disappointing Year
PERU · Report · 16 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Congress approved most of the Finance Ministry’s proposed economic stimulus measures, as expected. A few are still pending, including measures that soften conditions for job cuts, especially prized by businesses. But a law that allows new workers under age 24 to be treated less ...

A Year Of Political Definitions
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 16 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Preliminary figures from the Central Bank indicate that GDP growth for 2014 exceeded expectations.It recorded an increase of 7.1% compared to 2013, the highest in Latin America. All economic sectors registered growth. The leading activities were mining (20.9%), construction (11....

Domestic retail debtors of CHF mortgages remain unaffected by the SNB's move of yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2015

In our Quarterly Report, out early this week, we expected a weaker forint for 2015, but we did not think it would come about as quickly as it did. In the wake of the Swiss National Bank's decision yesterday, EURHUF has strengthened by 1%, to 323, and CHFHUF has jumped by no less than 52 units, to...

Even With Reforms, Debt Will Constrain Global Growth
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 14 Jan 2015

Special Points To Highlight In This Issue:In spite of overwhelming historical evidence, and a sophisticated understanding of the mechanics of financial distress in finance theory, one of the most consistent mistakes macroeconomists make is their failure to recognize the growth constraints that em...

CPI-inflation deeply below consensus in December 2014
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2015

CPI-inflation for December 2014 is out this morning: -0.7% mom / -0.9% yoy (-0.7% yoy in November). The consensus expectation was -0.4-(-0.5%) yoy in various polls. Core inflation is down to 0.8% yoy from 1.2% in November, and our estimate of the underlying inflation rate is down very sharply, to...

Third Quarter Aggregate Demand
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Aggregate supply and demand data at the third quarter of 2014 describe a scenario in which Mexico’s non petroleum exports remain strong, private investment and consumption are recovering at a slightly more solid pace, and public spending remains stalled as continuing growth in p...

First Half Holds Clues to Governability
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The two events that will dominate political life in Mexico during the first half of the year are this June’s midterm congressional elections and simultaneous local races in 17 states, and the spring session of Congress with its huge backlog of crucial legislation. At a time when...

The Future Hangs on Budget Revision
UKRAINE · Forecast · 13 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Though the year has begun, it’s still hard to envision how the next 12 months will unfold. Russian aggression is still on the agenda, but the core troublemaker right now is Ukraine’s 2015 budget. Disregarding the need to comply with the IMF austerity measures, the Ukrainian auth...

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