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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Two Opposite Pictures: Asset Prices and the Real Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Aug 2014

Executive Summary In the midst of economic performance that can be characterized as stagflation, asset prices have recently been appreciating. The Ibovespa has risen more than the stock market indexes of other emerging markets, and has far outpaced the S&P-500 in recent weeks. Simultaneously, ...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2014

Ibope Reveals Stability The second Ibope poll on the presidential race since the candidacies were made official presents a scenario of stability.President Dilma Rousseff (PT) preserved her intended votes from the previous poll, while senator Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG) and former governor Eduardo Campo...

Foreign Policy Coming Home
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2014

An official statement that defending compatriots abroad will be a defining trait of Russia’s foreign policy leaves the country in an uneasy position in its relations with the neighbors where large parts of the population (or even the whole population depending on the definition) can be viewed as ...

The Limits of Financial Reform
MEXICO · Report · 06 Aug 2014

Executive Summary The congressionally mandated report from the Federal Economic Competition Commission (Cofece) on the state of competition in the financial sector lacked the teeth of the telecommunications regulator’s equivalent report earlier this year, which among its main decisions designated...

What Follows the Reform Agenda
MEXICO · Report · 06 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Now that the question of energy reform has largely been settled, most of the Pact for Mexico structural reform agenda has been signed into law with and political attention will turn for the next ten months to three main policy areas before everything becomes subsumed in the midt...

Hail To The President
TURKEY · Report · 06 Aug 2014

Executive SummaryErdogan is almost certain the win the presidential election in the first round on Sunday. We start by providing an overview of the policies to be pursued in the Erdogan Era. We are not optimistic that AKP will revert to a more pragmatic policy path in social matters or the econom...

A Bend in the Road
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 06 Aug 2014

Executive SummaryAt a time of slowing growth, rising inflation and visible signs of infrastructure constraints, an adjudged bend in the administration’s Daang Matuwid has left the President not only with reduced degrees of freedom to invigorate the economy but also dented his corruption-fighting ...

This is in reply to a question by one of our readers
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2014

I thought the question is the minds of many and my answer may shed light on two important issues: Q: what is the likelihood of an early parliamentary election? should we expect that if Erdogan does well in the presidential and he does not announce an early parliamentary, we will see lower pressur...

Energy Reform
MEXICO · Report · 05 Aug 2014

Executive Summary A series of reforms to the Mexican Constitution regarding the energy sector appeared in the December 20, 2013 issue of the Diario Oficial de la Federación, the federal government’s daily gazette, and took effect on December 21, 2013. They legally codified changes to articles 25,...

Houston, We Have a Problem
TURKEY · Report · 04 Aug 2014

Consumer price inflation in July surprised on the upside coming in at 0.45%, versus consensus expectation of a modest drop of 0.1%.This has pushed the 12-month rate slightly higher to 9.3%, from 9.2% in June. Producer price inflation eased somewhat to 9.5%, probably largely owing to a more stable...

Conflicting Debt Target and Policies
HUNGARY · Report · 04 Aug 2014

Executive Summary This month, our focus is on the recent official measures on the budget, central bank interest rates and FX debt. A similarly important story is the continuation of the domestic banking saga, including compensations payable by banks to borrowers, the planned conversion of the FX ...

Political Insights: Week of August 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2014

This week there will be a concentrated effort in Congress, with important bills on the agenda.The accusations made by Veja magazine that Petrobras CPI questions were previously sent to participants should dominate the debates with the return of legislative activity.Presidential candidates partici...

Fragmentation will Help the PRI
MEXICO · Report · 04 Aug 2014

Executive Summary July indicators point to a further firming of the economy, along with evidence that an expansive fiscal policy has yet to produce its desired effects.Employment and real wages have risen steadily since January 1st, and it appears that GDP growth accelerated an estimated 2.1% in ...

The Risks and Politics
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Aug 2014

The industrial output data for June virtually guaranteed that GDP will contract in the second quarter of 2014, and that the Brazilian economy is very near recession. Certainly the drawdown of inventories accentuated the drop in the production of durables (for instance, automobile stocks are at re...

The Politics of Growth Targeting
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 04 Aug 2014

Executive SummaryThe investigation into Zhou Yongkang, announced last week but expected for months, is the most important political event in China since the related Bo Xilai scandal in 2012. It may confirm that President Xi Jinping and his followers have managed to centralize power far more than ...

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