Country Analysts

Andrew Collier
Former President, Bank of China International USA

In The News

Recent Country Insights

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Can China avoid the Japan trap?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 24 Nov 2021
Two concerns dominate elite politics in China. One is the collapse of the political system similar to the Soviet Union. The second is the Japanese period of economic stagnation in the 1990s. The fear of economic stagnation is behind the sharp cutbacks in the property market and the collapse of Ev...

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China’s property bubble and the wealthy – who will win?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 02 Nov 2021
China is struggling with reducing the property bubble while maintaining adequate housing for the population along with adequate growth in the property sector. Now, there is talk of an expansion of local property taxes to replace land sales as a source of revenue. Can China restructure its revenue...

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China’s growth strategy
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 21 Oct 2021
The harsh restrictions on the property sector have thrown in doubt the primary growth engine for the Chinese economy. The Politburo has three choices: reinflate the property market, accept radically lower growth, or switch to a new growth driver. Can China find a new source of economic growth to ...

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Beijing’s Evergrande solution
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 06 Oct 2021
Beijing believes the risks of a US-style financial crisis caused by a property bubble outweigh the risks of an Evergrande default. But it is also encouraging a “soft” landing for the resolution of Evergrande’s debt problems that would avoid political unrest and a bank crisis. How will Beijing res...

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A quick note on Evergrande
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 16 Sep 2021
The Evergrande crisis appears to be accelerating. Although the dollar bonds rose Tuesday on hopes for a better recovery rate, the overall tone is very negative. The central government has hired outside advisors to assess Evergrande’s credit situation. Morgan Stanley and Fitch have downgraded thei...

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Delinking debt in China
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 14 Sep 2021
China’s leadership is promoting the concept of delinking debt from government obligations. Two recent examples are the high profile debt workouts for property developer Evergrande and asset management company Huarong, which have raised questions about the Chinese government’s support for the corp...

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What does Xi Jinping’s "common prosperity" mean for the economy?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 30 Aug 2021 2 responses
Xi Jinping launched his vision for common prosperity officially in an internal meeting in the Politburo on August 17. This was a follow-on to the harsh regulations imposed on China’s technology sector. Although Xi has been using the term “common prosperity” for several years, its appearance in hi...

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Policy direction in China
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 13 Aug 2021
Faced with unusual challenges, including Covid and US-China decoupling, China is choosing to focus on four main policy areas. These are: * Covid response. * Macroeconomy. * Regulatory environment (including US-China policy). * The Property sector. The choices the lead...

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China’s education crackdown – How far will this go?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 27 Jul 2021
The new regulatory crackdown on the educational sector in China was a surprising move by China. New Oriental Education’s shares plunged 17.5% on the news. What really is a shock is how small the companies are in this sector – EDU has a market cap of just $6.6 billion. What is going on and how far...

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