CHINA ADVISORY
Analyst
Andrew Collier
Former President, Bank of China International USARecent Country Insights
China’s sugar high
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Apr 2024
Recent data from China’s economy has indicated a turnaround, mostly in the industrial sector including autos, but also in some high technology products. However, the improvements have been fueled by a sharp increase in industrial loans even as monetary policy overall remains sluggish. Further gro...
China’s charm offensive
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Mar 2024
China has been engaging in a full-court “charm offensive” toward Europe and the United States, encouraging diplomatic, military and economic discussions. Some analysts dismiss these efforts as a fig leaf to cover China’s true ambitions. However, there is an economic logic to them: the domestic ec...
China's growth and the Two Sessions
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Mar 2024
Investors are hoping that China finds a magic wand to reach the 5 percent plus growth target for 2024. Following the Two Sessions, one of the tools the government plans to use is fiscal, rather than monetary, stimulus. However, there is limited room for fiscal growth given the significant debt bu...
The Evergrande court case - what's next?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Jan 2024
The Hong Kong high court ordered one of China’s largest property developers, China Evergrande Group, to liquidate, theoretically ending several years of uncertainty about the future of the developer. The court appointed a Hong Kong restructuring firm, Alvarez and Marsal, to handle the liquidation...
Steel demand in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Jan 2024
China’s property industry, one of the major buyers of steel, is in decline. Property accounts for about one third of steel demand in China. The top 100 developers suffered declines of 4 percent sequentially and 30 percent year on year for contracted sales in November, according to CRIC estimates....
Seven predictions for China in 2024
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Dec 2023
In this report, I give my sometimes “out-of-the box” predictions for China in 2024. These include views on US-China relations, the upcoming Taiwan elections and the importance of the US dollar to China.
Alibaba and China’s property collapse
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 Dec 2023
How will China’s property crisis end? With a whimper or a bang? One advantage China has is geographical and financial diversity. China’s 22 provinces each have distinct economic attributes and are economically quite diverse, mainly because they raise and spend the majority of their own revenue...
Russia's attack on a Chinese bank
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Nov 2023
The cyberattack by Russian agents or their proxies on a Chinese bank in the U.S. is more serious than it may appear on the surface. The Russian group LockBit, based in Netherlands but with Russian employees, conducted a ransomware attack on the Chinese bank Industrial and Commercial Bank of China...
Albert Hirschman and China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Nov 2023
How will China’s property crash end? There are different views: *Consumption boom. Chinese economists argue that after a short period of post-Covid adjustment, consumption will increase and the economy will gradually transition to an era of new technology, including AI and semiconductors. *Du...