Country Analysts

Andrew Collier
Former President, Bank of China International USA

In The News

Recent Country Insights

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Trade War deal and the income multiplier
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 23 Jan 2020 1 response
Despite relatively benign recent economic data, we expect a rising negative impact on China’s economy as a result of the existing tariffs. Exports are likely to continue to decline accordingly due to existing US tariffs on Chinese goods. We anticipate continuing problems for the Chinese economy b...

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China’s local debt clean-up squad
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 17 Jan 2020
The four original Asset Management Companies (AMCs) established to handle bank non-performing loans have been expanded with the addition of more than 60 local AMCs. They are integral to the disposal of bank NPLs, which are increasing in size. The shift from central to local AMCs means Beijing is ...

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China’s half-hearted stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 10 Jan 2020
China is entering 2020 with a weak response to the economic decline. Beijing is accepting slower growth as one of the casualties of avoiding excessive investment that would lead to inefficient growth and the potential for financial systemic risk. However, in place of a substantial monetary or fi...

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What to expect in China 2020
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 03 Jan 2020
The obvious question for 2020 is – can China maintain growth without causing a bank failure, widespread defaults, or massive unrest as a result of unemployment? So far, Beijing has done a pretty good job, although my working assumption is that there is significant unemployment in more remote reg...

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Will Rebalancing in China Work?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 20 Dec 2019
We have argued in a previous note that the middle class in China is most likely much narrower than much analysis would suggest. This has important ramifications for rebalancing of the economy – a policy announced repeatedly by the Chinese leadership. I decided to analyze the data concerning retai...

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China’s schizophrenic stimulus policy
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 16 Dec 2019
Recent negative economic data is forcing Beijing to devise creative responses. The responses show a political compromise between the “spenders” (the National Development and Reform Commission, the local provincial governments, and the State Council) against the “savers,” which would include the P...

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China's understated global loans
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 06 Dec 2019
Three economists in July published a paper at the Kiel Institute in Germany arguing that China’s international lending is understated by a significant margin. The authors, Carmen Reinhart, Sebastian Horn, and Christoph Trebesch, arrive at a figure of US$4.6 trillion, which includes holdings of so...

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Notes from Ningbo
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 29 Nov 2019
We just spent three days in Ningbo, China’s largest port city, 200 km from Shanghai, visiting finance companies, banks, and regulators. Four quick conclusions: 1) The trade war is having less economic impact, even on a port city, than one would expect. 2) The crackdown on shadow banking and un...

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Alibaba’s singles day: Does it signal consumer strength?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 15 Nov 2019
Alibaba’s annual "singles day" is the largest day of online sales of goods in the world. It is viewed by some economists as a bellwether for the strength of the consumer sector in China. This, in turn, has ramifications for rebalancing of the economy from industrial production to the service sect...

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