Country Analysts

Andrew Collier
Former President, Bank of China International USA

In The News

Recent Country Insights

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Apple’s China Problem: Is luxury consumption declining?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 14 Jan 2019 1 response
The decline in Apple earnings has gotten mixed reports about what it means for consumption in China in general. We use a novel data set to look at consumption trends in China. Our conclusion is that consumption is for the most part concentrated in a small portion of wealthy citizens. Their purcha...

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Winter is coming to China
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 02 Jan 2019
Local employment data is highly negative Summary Recent data on employment and investment in fixed assets suggests a modest stimulus will lead to improvements in China’s economy. However, a closer look at local polls, along with interviews of corporate managers, indicates that employment is much ...

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Monetary stimulus and land sales
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 07 Dec 2018
Correlations show systemic stress Summary China has witnessed a significant increase in unsuccessful land auctions in 2018. The rate for the top Tier 1 and 2 cities rose to 6.4 percent in 7M 2018 from 5.7 percent in 2017. In this report, we ask the question – what types of credit are linked to th...

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Rising fiscal stimulus and support for the private sector
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 23 Nov 2018
Summary To understand how the Chinese banking system is coping with the economic downturn, we spoke to 15 banks in 10 cities. Despite concerns about expansion of debt, our November 2018 survey of fifteen banks shows that banks are lending for infrastructure projects in a clear bid to stimulate th...

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Does monetary policy work?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 16 Nov 2018
How effective is China’s monetary policy? Does Chinese monetary policy work? If the central bank changes interest rates, does the market react? Or are interest rates irrelevant and only fiscal policy – direct intervention – effective? These questions are essential to understand the effectiveness ...

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China’s infrastructure model is broken
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 09 Nov 2018
The widening fiscal deficit will restrict further stimulus efforts Summary China’s economic growth in the near term will depend on further investment in infrastructure, which has been the main driver in the past. The switch to consumption will take time. Our analysis suggests there are inadequate...

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Monetary noise from Beijing: Little support for equities - yet
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 26 Oct 2018
Chinese equities ended the week higher after senior Chinese officials expressed support for the markets. The comments by officials in the central bank and the central economic leadership were interpreted as indications of a support for stocks. However, the comments focused more on the fundamental...

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China bank survey: The return of shadow banking
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 19 Oct 2018
Conclusion Beijing is returning to stimulus to prevent a decline of GDP at a time of the threat from the Trade War. We see this growth in lending, both on and off balance sheet, in our October bank survey. One policy that has been surprisingly effective is the increase in lending to small busines...

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China’s Belt and Road: Debt trap – for China?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 04 Oct 2018
I spent three days at the end of September in the city of Astana in Kazakhstan, at a conference that was part of a larger effort by Nazarbayev University to create a China Centre. Kazakhstan is feeling pressure due to its location between China and Russia and is seeking greater depth of knowledge...