Country Analysts

Andrew Collier
Former President, Bank of China International USA

In The News

Recent Country Insights

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Private credit for state ends
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 15 Mar 2019
China is quietly privatizing much of its debt due to an increasing shortage of domestic capital. This will have several outcomes: * A rise in off-balance sheet financing. * An increasing division between state firms that obtain state capital and local infrastructure and private companie...

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The National People’s Congress: Worrying assumptions about revenue in 2019
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 05 Mar 2019
China’s annual National People’s Congress provides a window into the thinking of the government about its plans for the year. Both the assumptions and omissions are a valuable tool for forecasting China’s economic trajectory. The Ministry of Finance’s report on the economy outlined by Premier ...

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Who’s buying China’s domestic bonds?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 04 Mar 2019
One large part of China’s growing credit stimulus has been the bond market. A significant portion of this increased investment has come from the private sector. But how much? And how stable and transparent is this source of funding? We analyzed data on China’s bond market to understand the cha...

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Concerns at the top despite high credit growth
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 22 Feb 2019
Premier Li Keqiang warned about excessive credit growth in a meeting at the State Council this week. The January data would seem to confirm the excess growth. Li’s comments suggest conflict within the senior levels of government about the degree of monetary expansion. We just spent several days i...

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No quantitative easing for China
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 15 Feb 2019
There is a widespread expectation among western investors that China will enact quantitative easing to counter the effects of the trade war and the slowing economy. This is highly unlikely. Although there is substantial data indicating significant pain in the economy, including defaulting SMEs, u...

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China’s illegal shoppers: New rules may slow capital outflow
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 08 Feb 2019
“Daigou,” a new word produced as the result of burgeoning e-commerce in China, refers to personal shoppers who purchase overseas goods for mainland Chinese consumers for a fee. Unlike cross-border e-commerce, daigou is a gray market where consumers enjoy lower prices and, most important, no impor...

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China’s winners and losers
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 01 Feb 2019
China has instituted several targeted stimulus measures designed to improve GDP growth and provide capital for small businesses, the country’s largest employment sector. These measures, however, are likely to be inadequate compared with the decline in capital due to the restrictions imposed on sh...

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January 2019 China Bank Survey
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 24 Jan 2019
China’s banking system is under pressure to strike a balance between supporting economic growth and reducing credit risks. On one hand, Beijing is calling for lenders to step up funding for small businesses and infrastructure projects to revive the ailing economy. On the other hand, worsening cor...

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Apple’s China Problem: Is luxury consumption declining?
CHINA ADVISORY - Report 14 Jan 2019 1 response
The decline in Apple earnings has gotten mixed reports about what it means for consumption in China in general. We use a novel data set to look at consumption trends in China. Our conclusion is that consumption is for the most part concentrated in a small portion of wealthy citizens. Their purcha...

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