Country Analysts

FAN Gang
Board Member, People's Bank of China
Chunyang Wang
Professor, HSBC Business School of Peking University

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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Internal growth is strengthening
CHINA - Forecast 09 May 2019
The Chinese economy began showing a recovery pattern in Q1. GDP rose 6.4% y/y, though it was flat on Q4 2018. Industrial output was up 6.5% y/y, and up 0.8 pps from Q4. In March in particular, GDP rose 8.5% y/y, and up 1.4 pps from Q4 -- a powerful rebound, and its fastest growth rate since Augus...

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Industrial output rebounds
CHINA - Report 30 Apr 2019
The Chinese economy began to rebound in Q1, with GDP up 6.4% y/y, flat on Q4 2018. Industrial output was up 6.5% y/y, up 0.8 pps from Q4. Then in March, GDP rose a powerful 8.5% y/y, up 1.4 pps from Q4, to its fastest growth rate since August 2014. Investment, up 6.3% y/y, showed no clear tre...

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Equal terms for foreign firms
CHINA - Report 25 Mar 2019
Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced during his annual address to the People’s Congress of Beijing on March 5th that China’s growth target for 2019 would be in the 6% to 6.5% range. Another key takeaway is a significant 3 pps cut in value-added tax rate for manufacturers, to 13%. Industrial out...

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Financial indicators reviving
CHINA - Report 25 Feb 2019
Due to the seasonal lack of comparable y/y data in the month of Chinese New Year, we can only analyze data from imports and exports, and on financial conditions and price levels. Prices are trending downwards. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods has been slowing for the past three mont...

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More government investment promised
CHINA - Forecast 06 Feb 2019
Infrastructure investment growth saw its first rise in October 2018, up 3.7% y/y, and up 0.4 pps from September. This has been underscored in recent intensive announcements for new openings and approvals of mega-projects. The Chinese government’s relatively low public debt, at 47.6% of GDP, has m...

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Growth-stoking investment push is on
CHINA - Report 29 Jan 2019
GDP rose 6.6% y/y in 2018, down 0.2 pps from 2017. Growth rates declined each quarter throughout the year, falling from 6.8% y/y in Q1 to 6.4% y/y in Q4. Industrial output was up 6.2% y/y, down 0.4 pps from 2017. The manufacturing sector is the main reason for growth slowdown, and growth there f...

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Consumption dips as growth hits new low
CHINA - Report 26 Dec 2018
Top leaders’ annual Central Economic Work Conference, held from December 19th to 21st, set countering the ongoing growth downturn as its main 2019 goal for the economy. Leaders pledged to cut taxes and fees “on a greater scale;” to increase the issuance of local government bonds by “a relatively...

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Trade surplus with the U.S. grew
CHINA - Report 27 Nov 2018
Growth in October was stable, but slower. Industrial output was up 5.9% y/y, up only 0.1 pps from September. Investment was up 8% y/y, having risen for three consecutive months, and up 5 pps from July. State investment has accelerated, to counteract other negative growth factors. Retail sales ...

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Trade war not yet hitting trade
CHINA - Forecast 31 Oct 2018
Growth slowed in Q3, though it remained in a stable zone, with GDP expanding 6.5% y/y, down 0.3 pps from H1. Though the most uncertain factor is the U.S.-China trade war, trade is booming: in Q3, exports were up 10.3% y/y, and up 7 pps from Q2. Imports were up 19% y/y, up 8 pps from Q2. Trade als...

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