CHINA

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Country Analysts

FAN Gang
Board Member, People's Bank of China
Chunyang Wang
Professor, HSBC Business School of Peking University

In The News

Databank

Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Financial indicators reviving
CHINA - Report 25 Feb 2019
Due to the seasonal lack of comparable y/y data in the month of Chinese New Year, we can only analyze data from imports and exports, and on financial conditions and price levels. Prices are trending downwards. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods has been slowing for the past three mont...

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More government investment promised
CHINA - Forecast 06 Feb 2019
Infrastructure investment growth saw its first rise in October 2018, up 3.7% y/y, and up 0.4 pps from September. This has been underscored in recent intensive announcements for new openings and approvals of mega-projects. The Chinese government’s relatively low public debt, at 47.6% of GDP, has m...

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Growth-stoking investment push is on
CHINA - Report 29 Jan 2019
GDP rose 6.6% y/y in 2018, down 0.2 pps from 2017. Growth rates declined each quarter throughout the year, falling from 6.8% y/y in Q1 to 6.4% y/y in Q4. Industrial output was up 6.2% y/y, down 0.4 pps from 2017. The manufacturing sector is the main reason for growth slowdown, and growth there f...

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Consumption dips as growth hits new low
CHINA - Report 26 Dec 2018
Top leaders’ annual Central Economic Work Conference, held from December 19th to 21st, set countering the ongoing growth downturn as its main 2019 goal for the economy. Leaders pledged to cut taxes and fees “on a greater scale;” to increase the issuance of local government bonds by “a relatively...

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Trade surplus with the U.S. grew
CHINA - Report 27 Nov 2018
Growth in October was stable, but slower. Industrial output was up 5.9% y/y, up only 0.1 pps from September. Investment was up 8% y/y, having risen for three consecutive months, and up 5 pps from July. State investment has accelerated, to counteract other negative growth factors. Retail sales ...

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Trade war not yet hitting trade
CHINA - Forecast 31 Oct 2018
Growth slowed in Q3, though it remained in a stable zone, with GDP expanding 6.5% y/y, down 0.3 pps from H1. Though the most uncertain factor is the U.S.-China trade war, trade is booming: in Q3, exports were up 10.3% y/y, and up 7 pps from Q2. Imports were up 19% y/y, up 8 pps from Q2. Trade als...

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FDI keeps flowing in
CHINA - Report 29 Oct 2018
Growth slowed in Q3, though it remained in a stable zone, with GDP expanding 6.5% y/y, down 0.3 pps from H1. Although the most uncertain factor is the U.S.-China trade war, trade is booming: in Q3, exports were up 10.3% y/y, and up 7 pps from Q2. Imports were up 19% y/y, up 8 pps from Q2. Trade a...

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Deleveraging amid trade war
CHINA - Report 27 Sep 2018
Growth is weak, but can still be viewed as stable. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, up 0.1 pps from July and down 0.5 pps from Q2. Fixed asset investment was up 4.1%, and negative in real terms; it could decline further in the future. CPI was up 2.3% y/y in August, and up 0.5 pps from May. ...

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Despite financial turbulence, fundamentals are sound
CHINA - Report 27 Aug 2018
Growth is still stable amid the uncertainty of trade war. Industrial output was up 6% y/y in July, the same rate as in June, and down 0.6 pps from Q2, still in a stable zone. Investment increased 3% y/y in July, down 2.2 pps from Q2, and down 3.8 pps from July 2017, showing a stark decline. But p...

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