CHINA

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Country Analysts

FAN Gang
Board Member, People's Bank of China
Chunyang Wang
Professor, HSBC Business School of Peking University

In The News

Databank

Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Consumption dips as growth hits new low
CHINA - Report 26 Dec 2018
Executive SummaryTop leaders’ annual Central Economic Work Conference, held from December 19th to 21st, set countering the ongoing growth downturn as its main 2019 goal for the economy. Leaders pledged to cut taxes and fees “on a greater scale;” to increase the issuance of local government bonds ...

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Trade surplus with the U.S. grew
CHINA - Report 27 Nov 2018
Executive Summary Growth in October was stable, but slower. Industrial output was up 5.9% y/y, up only 0.1 pps from September. Investment was up 8% y/y, having risen for three consecutive months, and up 5 pps from July. State investment has accelerated, to counteract other negative growth factors...

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Trade war not yet hitting trade
CHINA - Forecast 31 Oct 2018
Executive Summary Growth slowed in Q3, though it remained in a stable zone, with GDP expanding 6.5% y/y, down 0.3 pps from H1. Though the most uncertain factor is the U.S.-China trade war, trade is booming: in Q3, exports were up 10.3% y/y, and up 7 pps from Q2. Imports were up 19% y/y, up 8 pps ...

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FDI keeps flowing in
CHINA - Report 29 Oct 2018
Executive Summary Growth slowed in Q3, though it remained in a stable zone, with GDP expanding 6.5% y/y, down 0.3 pps from H1. Although the most uncertain factor is the U.S.-China trade war, trade is booming: in Q3, exports were up 10.3% y/y, and up 7 pps from Q2. Imports were up 19% y/y, up 8 pp...

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Deleveraging amid trade war
CHINA - Report 27 Sep 2018
Executive Summary Growth is weak, but can still be viewed as stable. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, up 0.1 pps from July and down 0.5 pps from Q2. Fixed asset investment was up 4.1%, and negative in real terms; it could decline further in the future. CPI was up 2.3% y/y in August, and up 0.5 ...

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Despite financial turbulence, fundamentals are sound
CHINA - Report 27 Aug 2018
Executive Summary Growth is still stable amid the uncertainty of trade war. Industrial output was up 6% y/y in July, the same rate as in June, and down 0.6 pps from Q2, still in a stable zone. Investment increased 3% y/y in July, down 2.2 pps from Q2, and down 3.8 pps from July 2017, showing a st...

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Growth in spite of trade war
CHINA - Forecast 06 Aug 2018
Executive Summary GDP was up 6.8% y/y in H1, the same rate as in H2 2017. Industrial output was up 6.7% y/y, up 0.4 pps, while investment was up 6% -- down 2.6 pps, and up only 0.3% y/y in real terms, down 3.5 pps from H1 2017. The major drop in state investment is likely the main cause for the s...

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Weak Yuan compensating for potential trade war losses
CHINA - Report 23 Jul 2018
Executive Summary GDP was up 6.8% y/y in H1, the same rate as in H2 2017. Industrial output was up 6.7% y/y, up 0.4 pps from H2 2017. Fixed asset investment was up 6% y/y in H1, down 2.6 pps from H1 2017, and up only 0.3% y/y in real terms, down 3.5 pps from last H1. The major drop of state inves...

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Downward pressure on growth
CHINA - Report 25 Jun 2018
Executive SummaryGrowth is facing downward pressure. Chinese fixed asset investment, a key growth driver, was up by a new low of just 3.9% y/y in May, and down 3.6 pps from Q1, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States would apply tariffs of 25% to roughly $50 billion worth ...