GULF COUNTRIES

WANT IN-COUNTRY EXPERTISE TO HELP NAVIGATE AN EMERGING MARKET?

Country Analysts

Justin Alexander
Former Economic Advisor, Qatar Finance Ministry
Rory Fyfe
Former Head of Economics, QNB

Recent Country Insights

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Gulf weekly: Lebanon government, Saudi bond, MBS/Bezos spat
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 24 Jan 2020
The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Lebanon formed a government of technocrats, but it doesn’t yet inspire much confidence. * Saudi issued a $5bn bond. * Allegations have resurface...

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​Gulf weekly: Oman’s new sultan, Kuwait’s budget and Iran’s woes
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 17 Jan 2020
The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Sultan Haitham succeded in Oman and was well received by markets; we are cautiously optimistic that he will decentralize power and implement overd...

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​IRAN: Admission of guilt for downing plane is a risk-off development
GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 11 Jan 2020
For three days, Iran insisted that the crash of Flight 752 to Ukraine on Wednesday was due to mechanical error, despite the coincidence of it happening just hours of Iran’s counterstrike on US bases in Iraq. This was maintained despite mounting evidence and accusations from Canada’s prime ministe...

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OMAN: Sultan Haitham should be well prepared to address fiscal challenges
GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 11 Jan 2020
Oman's bizarre and untested succession system, set up by Qaboos to reduce the risk of rivals (after he’d deposed his father), was supposed to involve three days of deliberation by the Royal Family Council, during the period of official mourning, and only if they could not agree would two letters ...

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​OMAN: Succession will be credit-positive
GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 10 Jan 2020
A month ago, when Sultan Qaboos checked out early from a specialist hospital in Belgium we said it seemed likely that it had been determined that his cancer was untreatable and he had returned to Oman to die. Sadly, this prediction proved accurate, despite state TV claiming that he was in a stabl...

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Gulf weekly: Iran counterstrike, Kuwait and Bahrain GDP data
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 10 Jan 2020
The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Iran’s limited counterstrike on US forces in Iraq seemed to be a signal of de-escalation. * Iraq’s parliament voted to expel US troops. * MBS’s ...

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Limited Iranian counterstrike seems credit positive for GCC
GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 08 Jan 2020
Soon after midnight, Baghdad time, January 8, Iran fired over a dozen ballistic missiles at two of the main bases hosting US forces in Iraq. The missiles struck the main al-Asad base in the western Anbar region and another base near Erbil in the Kurdistan region. Initial reports, including from T...

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​Gulf weekly: US assassinates Iranian general, Saudi GDP contracts
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 03 Jan 2020
The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Saudi GDP contracted by -0.5% y/y in Q3, a base effect due to high oil output a year before, but non-oil growth picked up to 4.3% (a five-year hig...

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US killing of Iranian general could re-escalate Gulf tensions
GULF COUNTRIES - Report 03 Jan 2020
Oil prices spiked by $2 after a US drone strike in Iraq assassinated one of Iran’s most powerful generals. The situation is evolving rapidly and puts at risk the Saudi-driven cycle of de-escalation that has seen an apparent pause in attacks on oil interests in the Gulf since September. There may ...

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