GULF COUNTRIES
Analyst
Justin Alexander
Former Economic Advisor, Qatar Finance MinistryDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait returns to deficit, Dubai GDP robust in Q1, Turkey returns Saudi $5bn, UAE considers Gaza role
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Jul 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude is set for a third weekly decline, to about $80. * The GCC fiscal surplus fell to 0.4% of GDP in 2023 as spending rose 8% and revenue fell by -10%. * Saudi tourism numbers surged by 65% in 2023, led by the lei...
GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait finds offshore oil, Masdar issues green bond, Islamic State attacks Omani mosque, ICJ rules on Israeli occupation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jul 2024 · 2 responses
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * PIF signed agreements with three Chinese renewable firms to establish local manufacturing. * Bond issuance is planned to refinance the $13bn bridge loan for Aramco Gas Pipelines. * Masdar issued $1bn in 5-10 year green bo...
GULF WEEKLY: Aramco sells bonds, Adnoc signs up LNG investors, Pezeshkian wins Iran’s presidency
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jul 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate former health minister, won Iran’s presidential election. * Aramco sold $6bn in 10 to 40-year bonds at tight spreads. * Saudi Arabia raised a further $1bn from the Aramco equity sale through ...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi employment improves in Q1 but FDI remains weak, PIF and Qatar Airways report strong profits, Israel sends ceasefire negotiators back to Qatar
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Jul 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Current surpluses rose in Q1 in Qatar (15% of GDP) and KSA (3%) but eased in Bahrain (5%). * Inward FDI remained weak in KSA (1% of GDP), fell in Bahrain (to 2%), and turned negative in Qatar. * Qatar’s PMI surged in June...
GULF WEEKLY: Oman’s GDP improved in Q1, PIF advanced 5.5GW of solar power, the UAE issued a $1.5bn bond, Bahrain’s foreign minister visited Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Jun 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * EY and Mizuho are the latest firms to receive licenses for Regional HQs in Riyadh. * A PIF-led consortium signed $3.3bn in power purchase deals for 5.5GW in solar plants. * Aramco announced plans to buy a 25% stake in Por...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises to $86, GCC competitiveness improves, UAE FDI surged in 2023
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Jun 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude continued to rebound, rising to $86 today, the highest since April. * Gulf states all improved in IMD’s competitiveness index for a second year, led by the UAE at 7th globally. * The UAE led GCC FDI inflows in...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises but demand forecasts diverge, Qatar and Bahrain appoint ambassadors, Saudi and Kuwait GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Jun 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude rebounded to about $83, above its level before the recent OPEC+ meeting. * The gap between IEA and OPEC demand forecasts widened to 1.3m b/d this year and 5.6m in 2029. * There was confusion about the position...
GULF WEEKLY: Aramco equity offering raises $11bn, Kuwait crown prince appointed, Oman spending down -2% in 2023
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Jun 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude partly recovers to $80, after initially bearish sentiments about the OPEC+ deal. * Qatar is hosting more ceasefire consultations as Biden’s Gaza plan faces pushback. * Qalibaf and Ahmadinejad added their names...
OPEC+ outlines production through 2025, phasing out this year’s cuts and giving an uplift for the UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jun 2024 · 1 response
* The ministerial meeting was more ambitious than expected after a shift in venue to Riyadh. * This year’s 2.2m b/d in voluntary cuts by 8 countries will be phased out from Q4-24 to Q3-25. * The UAE has been allocated an additional 300k b/d that will phase in during 2025. * A fuller reallocati...