GULF COUNTRIES
Analyst
Justin Alexander
Former Economic Advisor, Qatar Finance MinistryDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
Days 4&5: Trump moots Hormuz escort but oil hits $84, US embassies and radars targeted, Khamenei’s son likely to succeed
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Mar 2026
This update is going out as Wednesday comes to a close in the US and the GCC and Iran begin Thursday morning. Iran The intense US and Israeli bombing has continued. The US has struck over 2,000 targets and is using 200 planes in the region, along with long-range bombers. The body count in Iran ha...
Iran War Day 3: Oil and gas facilities struck, Iran downplays strikes on GCC, US clarifies imminent threat claim
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 02 Mar 2026
This update is going out as Monday comes to a close in the US and the GCC and Iran begin Tuesday morning. US-Iran developments The US says it has struck 1,250 targets so far, including all 11 ships. The Institute for the Study of War's daily updates provide a good analysis of the targeting within...
Day 2 of Trump’s war on Iran: Leadership transition, Gulf airports targeted, oil up $5
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 01 Mar 2026 · 2 responses
Firstly, my thoughts are with clients in the region who are sheltering in place, at a time when many are observing Ramadan. I’m sure everyone outside the region is also closely following the news, so I will just summarize some of the key developments with brief analysis. The assault on Iran Israe...
US and Israel attack Iran with very broad objectives. Gulf states criticize counterstrikes. Oman condemns war. OPEC+ may increase output hike
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 28 Feb 2026 · 1 response
Trump laid out very broad US objectives in a video at about 3am ET on Saturday, shortly after strikes had begun, which suggest a prolonged assault (CBS). “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime”. He listed grievances back to the 1980...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit rises, Bahrain downgraded again, Iran war concerns grow
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Feb 2026
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude touched $73 despite expectations that OPEC+ will hike output for April. * Expectations of US strikes on Iran rose further, to 63% by end-March, adding to the oil risk premium. * The third round of US-Iran nucl...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises on US-Iran tensions, UAE GDP growth accelerates, Kuwait returns to FATF grey list
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Feb 2026
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude touched $72, a 7-month high, as concerns grow about a potential US-Iran war. * There was “good progress” in Omani-mediated nuclear talks, but the US military buildup continues. * Saudi-UAE tensions persist and...
GULF WEEKLY: Dubai tourism and Abu Dhabi GDP boom, Kuwait budgets a huge deficit, Omani equities surge
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Feb 2026
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There were reports that OPEC+ might be leaning towards an April production increase. * Market expectations of US strikes on Iran declined further, despite Trump's sending another carrier. * Saudi Arabia appointed Fahad al...
GULF WEEKLY: Oman mediates US-Iran talks, Qatar signs major LNG deals, Kuwait reshuffles cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Feb 2026 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oman mediated US-Iran talks, and the market-implied risk of US strikes this month halved to 30%. * The Saudi flash GDP reading showed non-oil growth slowing to a two-year low of 3.2% in Q4. * The UAE’s PMI rose to 55.9, t...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil spikes on Iran concerns, Saudi winter games cancelled, L’imad absorbs ADQ, Bahrain issues bonds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jan 2026
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose to $70 as the US naval armada neared Iran, and betting odds showed a growing conflict risk. * Gulf states are trying to de-escalate and will deny US usage of their territory and airspace for strikes. * Three Saud...