GULF COUNTRIES
Analyst
Justin Alexander
Former Economic Advisor, Qatar Finance MinistryDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
Iran War Days 11–12: Iran fires on ships as IEA agrees on oil reserve release
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 11 Mar 2026
Highlights Iran struck two oil tankers near Iraq and three cargo ships near Hormuz, and concerns grew about mines in the Strait. ADNOC shut the 922k b/d Ruwais refinery after a drone strike, and drones hit fuel tanks at Oman’s Salalah port. Aramco said it will soon ramp up the East-West Pipeline ...
Iran war fiscal impact model: Kuwait and Qatar hit hardest, Bahrain may need support
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Mar 2026
This report includes a simple model (which clients can manipulate) to estimate the possible fiscal impact of the war. Kuwait and Qatar face the largest fiscal hits due to their near-total reliance on Hormuz-dependent exports, but both have deep reserve buffers. Kuwait will soon need to shut down ...
Iran War Day 10: Oil whipsaws on shifting US signals
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026
Highlights The US sent conflicting signals on the war's timeline. Brent crude briefly hit $119 before retreating sharply after Trump's comments and G7 reserve-release talk, dropping below $90. Iran's new Supreme Leader adviser Kamal Kharazi told CNN there is "no room for diplomacy" and that Tehra...
Iran War Day 8-9: Khamenei’s son succeeds, oil spikes to $110
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 08 Mar 2026
Highlights: Mojtaba Khamenei has succeeded his father, signaling hardline continuity and no appetite for a negotiated exit from the war. President Pezeshkian apologized to Gulf neighbors and pledged to halt cross-border strikes, but they continued and struck more civilian targets, exposing intern...
GULF WEEKLY: Gulf crudes hit $100 as Hormuz blockage continues, some hydrocarbon and downstream production shuts down, Iranian attacks on the GCC continue
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Mar 2026
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude touched $90, Oman/Murban $100, and Qatar’s energy minister warned of $150. * Hormuz remains largely closed, with no visible action on US escort or insurance plans. * Saudi Arabia is increasing oil loading on t...
Webinar replay: War in Iran - Implications for the Gulf and Israel
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Mar 2026
As war breaks out with Iran, what's happening on the ground? How might the Gulf states respond to Iranian attacks? What are the short-term and long-term economic and market implications for Israel and the Gulf countries? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Glob...
Days 4&5: Trump moots Hormuz escort but oil hits $84, US embassies and radars targeted, Khamenei’s son likely to succeed
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Mar 2026 · 1 response
This update is going out as Wednesday comes to a close in the US and the GCC and Iran begin Thursday morning. Iran The intense US and Israeli bombing has continued. The US has struck over 2,000 targets and is using 200 planes in the region, along with long-range bombers. The body count in Iran ha...
Iran War Day 3: Oil and gas facilities struck, Iran downplays strikes on GCC, US clarifies imminent threat claim
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 02 Mar 2026
This update is going out as Monday comes to a close in the US and the GCC and Iran begin Tuesday morning. US-Iran developments The US says it has struck 1,250 targets so far, including all 11 ships. The Institute for the Study of War's daily updates provide a good analysis of the targeting within...
Day 2 of Trump’s war on Iran: Leadership transition, Gulf airports targeted, oil up $5
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 01 Mar 2026 · 2 responses
Firstly, my thoughts are with clients in the region who are sheltering in place, at a time when many are observing Ramadan. I’m sure everyone outside the region is also closely following the news, so I will just summarize some of the key developments with brief analysis. The assault on Iran Israe...