Country Analysts

Cyrillus Harinowo
Former Director Central Bank

Recent Country Insights

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Ending 2018 with confidence
INDONESIA - Report 28 Dec 2018
Executive Summary The month of December 2018 is set to end with greater confidence. Indonesian President Joko Widodo inaugurated the last stretches of the Trans Java toll road on December 20, 2018, and on the following day holiday travelers started to utilize the road happily. Many Indonesians ce...

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Has the rupiah started to rebound?
INDONESIA - Report 29 Nov 2018
Executive Summary The Indonesian economy has recently enjoyed some small relief because of the “rebound” of the rupiah, after it depreciated continuously over the past several months. Having fallen to more than Rp.15,000 per greenback, the Indonesian currency gained a bit of strength in November....

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The success of international events in the midst of disaster recovery
INDONESIA - Report 29 Oct 2018
Executive Summary In the month of September 2018, disasters hit the area of Central Sulawesi, especially in Palu, Donggala and Sigi. A huge earthquake created deadly tsunamis and flooding, which especially hit Palu just shortly after the earthquake. That earthquake followed another large earthqua...

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Good economic news in the midst of uncertainty
INDONESIA - Report 02 Oct 2018
Executive Summary This publication reports on developments in September prior to the tragic earthquake over the past weekend. We will keep you apprised of that situation in coming reports. The month of September 2018 brought good economic news. The first was the report of the Minister of Finance ...

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The Allure of Bread and Circuses
INDONESIA - Report 03 Sep 2018
Executive Summary The 2018 Asian Games began a few days ago, and the headlines have been filled with stories of the athletes’ heroic achievements. Just as in the Roman Empire, this grand event has managed to draw public attention away from various problems, such as the heated preparations for the...

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The return of optimism
INDONESIA - Report 30 Jul 2018
Executive Summary After displaying some pessimism, Kompas Daily, the most prestigious and credible newspaper in Indonesia, reported the return of optimism in the FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) industries. A number of retailers gave testimony to the optimism they shared. The FMCG industries als...

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Annual exodus
INDONESIA - Report 02 Jul 2018
Executive Summary The month of June was full of interesting economic activity. In the first half of the month, the majority of Indonesians were finishing their fasting month. The peak was the big holidays, similar to the Christmas holidays in western countries. This year, the holidays lasted for ...

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Bank Indonesia raises the benchmark rate
INDONESIA - In Brief 31 May 2018
At a special policy meeting on May 30, Bank Indonesia announced another increase in the benchmark rate by 25 basis points, to 4.75 percent. The rate increase, as we suggested in our most recent report, was able to reverse expectations, so that the exchange rate of the rupiah turned to Rp. 13 thou...

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The Central Bank acts to stabilize the rupiah
INDONESIA - Report 30 May 2018
Executive Summary Like many other emerging economies, the Indonesian economy has been challenged by the policy undertaken by the US Fed, which has raised its interest rates for the last few quarters and has strongly indicated it will raise the Fed Funds rate further. Being a small open economy, I...