MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Mexico Macro Monitor: Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY according to timely figures
MEXICO · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025
Q1 2025 GDP maintains slowdown trend, growing just 0.6% YoY due to industrial contraction and weakening servicesAccording to timely figures from INEGI, Mexico’s GDP in Q1 2025 posted weak annual growth of 0.6% (seasonally adjusted), similar to the previous quarter and nearly one percentage point ...
Economics: Consumer confidence extends its slide as employment weakens; a further erosion of consumption is possible
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2025
Mexico’s consumer confidence index deteriorated in its latest reading, prompting some analysts to note that it foreshadows a greater deceleration of private consumption for the coming months. It is important to consider that the index allows anticipating the behavior of consumption in certain co...
Politics: The National Development Plan—where is Mexico headed?
MEXICO · Report · 28 Apr 2025
Mexico’s immediate future will largely be determined by the National Development Plan (NDP). The 2025-2030 version of the plan was recently approved by Morena and its allies in Congress. The plan had sparked optimism in some business circles given the perception—and hope—that President Claudia Sh...
Mexico Macro Monitor: In the first quarter of 2025, the trade balance recorded a high surplus due to an increase in non-automotive manufacturing exports and a reduction in consumer and capital imports
MEXICO · In Brief · 28 Apr 2025
In January-March 2025, the trade balance recorded a surplus of 1,097 USD million which compares to a 2,706 USD million deficit in the same period of the previous year. This result meant that the negative trade balance observed in January was offset by surpluses in February and March. CHART 1 Trad...
Mexico Macro Monitor: The Global Indicator of Economic Activity shows very weak annual growth (0.5%) as of February
MEXICO · In Brief · 25 Apr 2025
The Global Indicator of Economic Activity shows very weak annual growth (0.5%) as of February, with a 1.0% monthly increase using seasonally adjusted figures The Global Economic Activity Index (IGAE) continued to show weak annual growth in February 2025 (0.5%), after expanding by 0.2% in January ...
Mexico Macro Monitor: Inflation rebounds, Banxico should think twice about relaxing monetary policy in May
MEXICO · In Brief · 24 Apr 2025
Annual inflation in the first half of April rebounded due to increases in both core and non-core inflation, erasing the progress made earlier in the year… ●Consumer price inflation in the first half of April rose to an annual rate of 3.96%, approaching December 2024's level of 3.99%.●The core inf...
Mexico Macro Monitor: In February 2025, sales services stagnated compared to the previous month, though they continued to post a strong year-over-year growth.
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Apr 2025
In February 2025, revenues (sales) of private non-financial service providers increased by 5.8% compared to the same month last year but remained unchanged from January (seasonally adjusted figures). This suggests that service sales continue to be an important driver of consumption and economic a...
Mexico Macro Monitor: In February 2025, retail sales continued to grow, though at a slower pace compared to January. Meanwhile, wholesale sales kept declining.
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Apr 2025
In February 2025, retail sales maintained the growth observed in the previous month, albeit at a slower pace: They rose 1.7% year-over-year (compared to 2.7% in January) and 0.2% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted figures). As a result, the first two months of 2025 saw a cumulative annual incr...
Economics: Current US tariff schedule significantly impacts Mexican exports and the broader economy
MEXICO · Report · 15 Apr 2025
President Trump’s recent announcement of a 90 day pause on his “reciprocal” tariffs left many countries with a 10% across-the-board rate for that period. Mexico was not included in the list of reciprocal tariffs, a development celebrated by Mexican authorities as an achievement. However, there ar...