NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...

Economic data confirm our projections for 2022 and 2023. The financial deficit of the defined benefit pension system is the most pressing issue of public policy in the next 18 months.
PANAMA · Report · 31 Oct 2022

The first half of 2022 presented critical messages. First, the comparison of GDP growth in the first six months of 2022 with the same period in 2021 (11.8%) confirms that the economy continues to proceed along a path to recovery. However, activity contracted by 0.5% in the first half of 2022 vis-...

September's headlines: Q2 macroeconomic results, Odebrecht and the ILO pension evaluation
PANAMA · Report · 05 Oct 2022

September's headlines were judicial and financial: (1) the end of the Odebrecht preliminary hearing and its possible outcome next year; and (2) the much-anticipated ILO evaluation of the financial conundrum of the defined benefits pension program (SEDB) administered by the Social Security Agency ...

Lower-than-budgeted revenue for the first two quarters, the search for independent presidential hopefuls begins, and the populist approach to the social crisis continues at a slower pace
PANAMA · Report · 24 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The fiscal balance for the NFPS during the first six months of the year showed an increase in revenue in real terms and reductions in current and investment expenditure, also in real terms, compared with 2021. Current savings were negative (0.35% of GDP) but better than the -0.8% of last year. Th...

Three weeks into the social uprisings: causes, consequences, and perspectives
PANAMA · Report · 26 Jul 2022 · 2 responses

Social uprisings began on July 4, when a group of teachers from ANADEPO (representing over twenty educational, civil, farming, transportation and student associations) and AEVE (a teachers' union), based in the provinces of Chiriquí and Veraguas in western Panama, closed the main arteries of comm...

President Cortizo announces that he plans to continue his tenure after his medical checkup in Houston. More subsidies are on the table to tame the inflationary effects.
PANAMA · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

In a pre-recorded televised conference yesterday, Laurentino Cortizo announced that his health is stable. He plans to continue leading the Executive until the end of the Constitutional term in July 2024. Last week Cortizo traveled to Houston, Texas, to obtain a second opinion about the diagnosis ...

Panama on the GAFI gray list and awaiting the October exam. First-quarter GDP growth and IMAE numbers confirm 6.4% projections for the year. Inflation spikes in May. Cortizo to announce the status of his health condition next month.
PANAMA · Report · 29 Jun 2022

The government faces a credibility crisis if, during the GAFI committee meetings in October, Panama remains on the "gray list" or suffers a downgrade by GAFI. Minister Alexander's statements and official reports are optimistic about the outcome of the next review, but the Bank Superintendent is m...

President Cortizo announced that he suffers from a critical condition that requires specialized medical treatment in the US
PANAMA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2022

A communique published yesterday by the Presidency of the Republic stated that Laurentino Cortizo suffers a condition known as myelodysplastic syndrome of intermediate-range, a type of bone-marrow cancer. Cortizo will continue the treatment of this disease after July 1 in Houston once he complies...

The results of the PRD elections ratify the political power of the legislators
PANAMA · In Brief · 16 May 2022 · 1 response

What the 4,146 delegates (only 1.3% absentees) decided in Sunday`s PRD elections of the National Executive Committee (CEN) of the Party confirmed the power of the legislators vis-à-vis the executive. The PRD is not only the party of President Cortizo; it also has a majority of diputados in the Le...

A solid pace of recovery in 2022 and 2023. The month of May will be an important one for local politics
PANAMA · Forecast · 16 May 2022

The economy will grow 6.4% in 2022 and 4.9% in 2023. The main drivers will be investments and exports. The former, both private and public, are expected to lead growth due to a low comparison base. The latter, in particular tourism and air transportation, will grow at a solid pace. External condi...

Brief analysis of the April IMF projections for Panama
PANAMA · In Brief · 20 Apr 2022

The Panamanian economy will grow 7.5% in 2022 and 5.5% in the medium term, close to its potential. The level of real GDP would be 1.8% higher than the pre-pandemic year of 2019. If these forecasts are correct, the GDP in 2022 at current prices would be USD 70.5 billion (+10.8% from 2021) and the ...

According to the MEF preliminary report, the first quarter of 2022 showed good news for the Central Government
PANAMA · Report · 13 Apr 2022

The recently published preliminary MEF report on total revenues showed positive signs in most items. Through March, accumulated current revenues were 6.5% above budget and 28.8% above last year's figures. Tax revenues increased 6.7% vis-a-vis the budget and 33.4% compared with 2021. Non-tax reven...

​Just for the record: new fiscal 2021 figures has published by MEF. The NFPS deficit in 2021 was revised upwards
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022 · 1 response

On April 4, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) issued its revision of the Balances of the Central Government and the Non-Financial Public Sector for 2021. The net deficit of the NFPS changed from 5.53% of GDP to 6.66% of GDP in 2021 (US$ 3.523 billion to US$ 4.238 billion) or 20.3% larger....

We share Minister Alexander's optimism for 2022, but some issues remain unresolved. Politics retake the headlines.
PANAMA · Report · 30 Mar 2022

The macroeconomic and fiscal projections presented in mid-March by the MEF are consistent with previous official forecasts and those of most analysts. Efforts to exit the GAFI list are moving slowly. Structural reforms to the CSS pension program will wait for the conclusions of the ILO report. Pr...

Labor market improvement hides a lower participation rate, and a new name with previous experience enters the political arena.
PANAMA · Report · 28 Feb 2022

The final GDP results for 2021 will be published soon. We expect a growth rate between 13% and 15%, the latter hinted by Minister Alexander in his February interview with the daily newspaper La Estrella. If confirmed by INEC, the economy will be on a path to recovery from the 18% drop of 2020. ...

​Cortizo nominates three directors to the Board of ACP: we expect their ratification by the Legislative
PANAMA · In Brief · 16 Feb 2022

On Wednesday, the cabinet approved the nomination of three new directors of the Panama Canal Authority's Board of Directors. The Board consists of eleven members appointed for nine years each, rotating in groups of three, except for the Chairman and the representative of the Legislative Assembly....