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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

What Xi Jinping won’t do
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Apr 2025

Many outsiders tend to view Xi Jinping as a rational economic actor who implements policy with an authoritarian hand, who would make the same decisions economically that the U.S. would. However, that is not always true. The priorities of the Chinese state often differ from those of the U.S. There...

Seven likely outcomes in China from the Trump tariffs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Apr 2025

China struck back against the new tariffs with a significant 34 percent tariff on US goods, set to take effect on April 10. This is a much broader attack on the US than China engaged in during the first Trump Administration. China also restricted exports of seven types of rare earth metals, added...

Pressure points on China from the Trump Administration
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Mar 2025

Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0 have or may impose a variety of tariffs. We have some sense of the macroeconomic impact on China. But what about the domestic political pressure points? We know that China has deliberately targeted its tariffs heavily on red states to weaken Trump’s base. Is there likely t...

China’s “DeepSeek” tech rebound
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Mar 2025

The success of DeepSeek along with Xi Jinping’s meeting with technology firms has caused a rally in Chinese tech stocks. DeepSeek’s ability to create a sophisticated AI engine with minimal chip hardware has been taken as sign of China’s ability to improve on western technology at a much lower pri...

Unpegging the Hong Kong dollar peg
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Feb 2025

Given the difficult state of Hong Kong’s economy, and more broadly its role in the world, it is not surprising that we are seeing speculation about how the city will refashion itself under tighter mainland control. There are concerns about the direction of the economy; the strength of its pillar ...

Geopolitical risks and the domestic economy: Are Chinese officials getting nervous?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jan 2025

Xi Jinping is fighting two fires simultaneously: the geopolitical risk of sanctions and a trade war, and a rapidly slowing domestic economy. The trade war outcome is out of his control until Trump enacts specific policies. Even then, Xi has limited retaliatory options such as restricting exports ...

Policy shift or feint?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jan 2025

Recent statements in China have been interpreted by some analysts as a change in policy. Xi Jinping is now warning of “challenges” in China’s economy. These and related comments have been viewed by some as hinting at a possible change in the central government's attitude toward economic stimulus....

China's weak hand
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Dec 2024

China’s economy is likely performing worse than the official data suggests, including in both the private and state sector. For structural reasons, any stimulus is likely to be ineffective. Given the weak economic data points, along with the difficult trade environment among China’s main customer...

Beijing tries again
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Nov 2024

Beijing has once again—after several earlier attempts—tried to strengthen the economy through a stimulus package. This package, at 10 trillion yuan, is larger than previous attempts but is unlikely to achieve the desired turnaround in the economy to halt the decline in property sales and the rise...

Trump and China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Nov 2024

While we don’t know the details of President-elect Trump’s plan for China, we can expect increased financial sanctions, higher tariffs, and a generally hostile climate toward trade and investment. These policies will heighten already sharp tensions within the Chinese economy and politics. The ele...

How long can consumer savings last?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Oct 2024

China is hoping a short-term stimulus package will revive the economy. The rumored size of a package keeps growing. Although a large stimulus package has not taken place, the impact of the slowing economy on ordinary citizens has been reduced due to the size of savings deposits in the banks and g...

China’s "drip-drip" stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Oct 2024

The PBOC announced a series of measures that some compared (with a modicum of hyperbole) to a bazooka. Bloomberg said it was a “massive adrenaline shot." One reporter said he was at the press conference “typing with nervous fingers.” The market took the announcements on board, with the CSI 300 In...

China’s Struggling Consumer
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Sep 2024

Some Recent consumer data shows the Chinese economy steadily weakening. We look at several key data points pointing to the decline. Declining film box office revenue: The totals for film revenue is down 43 percent for the three months from June through August. According to a senior film exe...

China’s circling of the wagons financial strategy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Sep 2024

China’s bond market has been on a tear recently. Chinese banks, including both rural and city, along with the big national state banks, have been significantly increasing their purchases of central government bonds, leading to the rare event of 10-year and 30-year bonds trading below the central ...

China’s report card
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Aug 2024

In the first half of 2024 China faced significant challenges and some important decisions. How did it do? Here, we provide a quick report card on China’s successes and failures in navigating a difficult environment.

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