NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...

China’s charm offensive
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Mar 2024

China has been engaging in a full-court “charm offensive” toward Europe and the United States, encouraging diplomatic, military and economic discussions. Some analysts dismiss these efforts as a fig leaf to cover China’s true ambitions. However, there is an economic logic to them: the domestic ec...

China's growth and the Two Sessions
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Mar 2024

Investors are hoping that China finds a magic wand to reach the 5 percent plus growth target for 2024. Following the Two Sessions, one of the tools the government plans to use is fiscal, rather than monetary, stimulus. However, there is limited room for fiscal growth given the significant debt bu...

The Evergrande court case - what's next?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Jan 2024

The Hong Kong high court ordered one of China’s largest property developers, China Evergrande Group, to liquidate, theoretically ending several years of uncertainty about the future of the developer. The court appointed a Hong Kong restructuring firm, Alvarez and Marsal, to handle the liquidation...

Steel demand in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Jan 2024

China’s property industry, one of the major buyers of steel, is in decline. Property accounts for about one third of steel demand in China. The top 100 developers suffered declines of 4 percent sequentially and 30 percent year on year for contracted sales in November, according to CRIC estimates....

Seven predictions for China in 2024
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Dec 2023

In this report, I give my sometimes “out-of-the box” predictions for China in 2024. These include views on US-China relations, the upcoming Taiwan elections and the importance of the US dollar to China.

Alibaba and China’s property collapse
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 Dec 2023

How will China’s property crisis end? With a whimper or a bang? One advantage China has is geographical and financial diversity. China’s 22 provinces each have distinct economic attributes and are economically quite diverse, mainly because they raise and spend the majority of their own revenue...

Russia's attack on a Chinese bank
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Nov 2023

The cyberattack by Russian agents or their proxies on a Chinese bank in the U.S. is more serious than it may appear on the surface. The Russian group LockBit, based in Netherlands but with Russian employees, conducted a ransomware attack on the Chinese bank Industrial and Commercial Bank of China...

Albert Hirschman and China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Nov 2023

How will China’s property crash end? There are different views: *Consumption boom. Chinese economists argue that after a short period of post-Covid adjustment, consumption will increase and the economy will gradually transition to an era of new technology, including AI and semiconductors. *Du...

China’s “shock therapy”
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Oct 2023

China’s two largest property developers this week have said they are on the verge of default. China Evergrande faced a government cancellation of its restructuring plan for $19 billion of international bonds that investors say could lead to a collapse of the company. Meanwhile, Country Garden has...

A "Lehman Moment" for China?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Sep 2023

Shadow banking poses a systemic risk to the Chinese economy as part of a greater debt problem. In this report, we trace the development of shadow banking in China and discuss the areas where risks to the sector lie. The main driving force behind the current demand for shadow credit has been th...

Webinar replay: China - How risky is shadow banking?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

What are the systemic risks in China’s shadow banking industry today? What constraints will this put on China's future growth? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Andrew Collier discussing the likely risks caused by Zhongrong and the shadow banking industry.

Slide Presentation: China - How risky is shadow banking?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

Get insight into the likely risks caused by Zhongrong and the shadow banking industry with the presentation from our webinar, "China - How risky is shadow banking?".

Country Garden: further stress in China’s property market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Aug 2023

Country Garden, China’s second-largest property developer, has exhibited several signs of stress. It failed to inject additional funds into its developments and did not make payments on two bonds. Country Garden's June contracted sales at 17 billion yuan, according to CRIC's preliminary estimates...

China’s "schizophrenic" economic policy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jul 2023

The People’s Daily on July 20 published a policy statement issued July 14 by the Party’s Central Committee calling for promotion of the private sector. The statement was entitled “Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on promoting the development ...

China’s weak Q2 economic data
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Jul 2023

China reported weak economic Q2 2023 data. GDP rose 6.3 percent. This was below median forecasts of 7.1 percent by economists surveyed by Bloomberg, but many sell-side economists may have been bullish in their forecasts for political reasons. Retail sales were anemic at 3.1 percent, and auto s...