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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China and Venezuela
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Jan 2026

The American extraction of Maduro in Venezuela and American engagement in the country is likely to have two long-term impacts on China: 1) New assumptions about American military power, particularly relating to Taiwan; and 2) A more multilateral approach to debt negotiations with Venezuela ...

Notes from Beijing and Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Dec 2025

I just returned from a two week trip to Hong Kong and Beijing, giving a speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, and meeting with property developers and other businesses. Here are a few random thoughts from the trip, including on the overall economy, the property market and activit...

No property bailouts in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Dec 2025

Ever since property prices began to collapse in 2021 following Beijing’s draconian Three Red Lines policy limiting bank loans in 2020, the markets have been expecting a central government bailout of the property market. Instead, we have seen drips and drabs of help, mostly for individual projects...

Trade talks and fourth plenum end with a whimper
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Two important meetings—on China’s five-year plan and between Xi and Trump—have ended not with a bang but a whimper. Trump retrenched to pre-tariff trade agreements but there were no long-term structural changes or solutions to the underlying conflicts. Meanwhile, China’s Central Committee met for...

Is China open for business?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Oct 2025

China’s rising equity markets and the improving atmosphere in US-China relations is convincing some foreign funds to return to China. They are also attracted to the success of companies such as DeepSeek and BYD and the expansion of robotics, which suggest China’s economy is improving. However, I ...

Will Beijing bail out the property market?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Sep 2025

“China’s regulatory rescue efforts are sometimes cautious, like giving a band-aid after a knife wound,” said Huan Li, co-founder of Forest Capital Hong Kong Ltd., a hedge fund with $200 million under management. “They don’t act until the worst moment, but when that comes, it may be too late.” Blo...

The great Chinese tech mirage
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Sep 2025

“Underestimating China” has become the new consensus of China’s current global position. From China’s rise to the collapse post-Covid, we now have a new discussion that sees China’s industrial capacity and technological prowess as a potential threat to the West. Council on Foreign Relations An...

Supply-side cutbacks in China—real or a red herring?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Aug 2025

China’s overcapacity is leading to global price deflation as the country exports subsidized goods. The government has discussed supply-side reform—but how real is this? Does China have the political capacity to reduce production enough to change global supply dynamics? Supply-side reform is no...

Is Xi Jinping losing power?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jul 2025

There’s been a lot of recent chatter about a possible decline in Xi Jinping’s power and what this means for the leadership of China. The arguments are divided: some analysts are convinced Xi’s been unofficially demoted, while others believe we are reading the tea leaves incorrectly. I tend to thi...

No easy solutions for China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Jun 2025

The two economic issues facing China are the US-China trade talks and economic stimulus. The first can be partly resolved through negotiations, although even tariffs of 10 percent would cause a drop in GDP. The agreement thus far appears to be an agreement to negotiate—not an actual contract. On ...

Will China's economy and technology surpass the U.S.?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 May 2025

There is a growing view that China’s economy and technology will soon surpass that of the U.S. Kyle Chan, a researcher at Princeton University, outlined this argument in a New York Times op-ed: “For years, theorists have posited the onset of a 'Chinese century': a world in which China finally ...

Thoughts on the trade talks (a win-win?) and China's stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 May 2025

China and the U.S. plan to hold two days of trade talks in Switzerland starting May 10 for the first time since the beginning of Trump’s second administration. The Financial Times noted that “The meeting will be the first high-level interaction between the two sides since Vice President Han Zheng...

What Xi Jinping won’t do
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Apr 2025

Many outsiders tend to view Xi Jinping as a rational economic actor who implements policy with an authoritarian hand, who would make the same decisions economically that the U.S. would. However, that is not always true. The priorities of the Chinese state often differ from those of the U.S. There...

Seven likely outcomes in China from the Trump tariffs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Apr 2025

China struck back against the new tariffs with a significant 34 percent tariff on US goods, set to take effect on April 10. This is a much broader attack on the US than China engaged in during the first Trump Administration. China also restricted exports of seven types of rare earth metals, added...

Pressure points on China from the Trump Administration
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Mar 2025

Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0 have or may impose a variety of tariffs. We have some sense of the macroeconomic impact on China. But what about the domestic political pressure points? We know that China has deliberately targeted its tariffs heavily on red states to weaken Trump’s base. Is there likely t...

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