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NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
GULF WEEKLY: Qatar and Abu Dhabi GDP strong in Q1, Saudi current account returns to surplus, Oman Air joins oneworld
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Jul 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to around $69, despite expectations of another OPEC+ hike. * The Iran ceasefire held, but Trump and Khamenei continued a war of words. * Saudi Arabia’s current account returned to surplus, but FDI dipped sli...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops and equities rebound as Iran war ends, Oman finalizes personal income tax, Kuwait moves towards bond issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Jun 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Qatar intercepted Iranian missiles and then helped mediate a ceasefire with the US and Israel. * This followed a US strike on Iranian nuclear sites, which caused severe damage. * Trump says there will be renewed nuclear t...
Iran fires missiles at US airbase in Qatar—possibly a stage-managed retaliation
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 23 Jun 2025
In the last hour, Iran has been firing missiles at Qatar. This is an evolving situation, but here are some very preliminary thoughts: Of all the potential targets in the region, Qatar and Al-Udeid Airbase are probably the best defended, including with Patriot batteries.The base, which houses up t...
The GCC and oil market wait to see if Iran will respond to the US strikes
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 22 Jun 2025
Oil futures have begun trading in Asia and, so far, the response is muted. The September Brent contract nearly touched $80 on open, but within half an hour of trading, had eased back to $77 (Inv). There is still nearly $10 of risk premium in there compared with 10 days ago, but it remains close t...
GULF WEEKLY: Trump mulls entering war, UAE FDI remains strong, S&P rates UAE, Oman’s GDP picks up in Q1
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Jun 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Israel has air superiority, and Iran’s medium-range missiles are nearly exhausted. * Trump is considering joining the war to bomb the hardened Fordow nuclear site. * The direct impact on the GCC and hydrocarbons remains l...
GULF WEEKLY: Israeli strikes on Iran cause major damage, Saudi Q1 GDP revised up, Oman’s tourist numbers decline
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Jun 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: *Israel's strikes caused major damage to military and nuclear sites and killed senior leaders. *Oil, hovering around $75, has not yet priced in a major risk of a closure of Hormuz. *Gulf states, including even Bahrain, cond...
Oil spikes to $75 as Israel strikes Iran and kills the head of its military
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 12 Jun 2025
What happened? Writing a few hours into the attacks, which began around 3am on Friday (7.30pm ET Thur), there is only limited information about what has happened. There were at least six explosions in Tehran, some targeting residential buildings linked to military and scientific families. Civilia...
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ accelerates taper, TSMC moots UAE gigafab, Qatar and Oman fiscal outturns
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jun 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ announced another 0.4m b/d production hike for July, but Brent rose to $66 on US-China talks. * Leaks of the US proposal to Iran suggested an enrichment compromise, contradicted by Trump. * Trump’s metal tariffs wil...
GULF WEEKLY: Aramco issues bonds, Oman records Q1 deficit, Fitch expects mild Dubai property correction
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 May 2025 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $62 amidst reports that OPEC+ could boost July output by more than 0.4m b/d. * Trump said Iran talks are going well and warned Israel not to strike. There could be an interim deal. * Saudi Arabia conducted a...
GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait plans huge debt issuances, Gulf airlines achieve record profits, Bahrain may import Russian LNG
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 May 2025 · 2 responses
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $64 on tariff worries, rising inventories and OPEC+ taper speculation. * A fifth round of US-Iran talks is underway, but Khamenei downplayed the prospects. * NEOM’s green hydrogen plant, opening next year, i...
GULF WEEKLY: Trump tours GCC, PIF launches AI champion, oil eases on talk of an Iran deal, Mumtalakat achieves record profit
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 May 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices eased back to $64 after Trump said on Thursday that an Iran deal might be close. * April data showed only a small rise in OPEC+ V8 output and continued Kazakh overproduction. * The White House counted $1trn in ...
GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain and Saudi deficits widen, Kuwait and Bahrain GDP slows, OPEC+ speeds taper, Flynas IPO announced
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 May 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ will boost output by 0.4 b/d in June, but the oil price still rose to $64 on US-China talks. * The US will fast-track some GCC investments and could ease AI chip export limitations. * Saudi Arabia recorded a -5% of ...
Saudi Q1 fiscal - no sign of spending cuts and a record increase in debt
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 05 May 2025
The Ministry of Finance is getting timelier with its fiscal releases, publishing Q1 today, just five weeks after the quarter end and a week before Aramco's earnings. I will include some more analysis in the weekly report, but a few quick takeaways: The decline in oil revenue was as expected, give...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi GDP revised up by 14%, $7.4bn in debt issued across GCC, Eric Trump launches GCC deals, Oman discusses US FTA
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 May 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil traded lower in advance of an OPEC+ meeting tomorrow that could accelerate the taper. * Despite positive noises after a 3rd US-Iran meeting in Oman, Trump threatened secondary sanctions. * The IMF’s REO forecasts see ...
GULF WEEKLY: IMF/WB revise down GCC forecasts, Adnoc signs Chinese LNG contracts, S&P puts Bahrain on Negative outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Apr 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Chatter that OPEC+ might accelerate its taper because of Kazakh overproduction weighed on oil. * There were some positive vibes regarding US-Iran talks, which will now involve a technical group. * The IMF and World Bank r...