GULF COUNTRIES - Report 21 Jan 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil hit a high since 2014 of nearly $90, and forecasters expect little impact from Omicron. * Saudi issued record investment licenses in Q4 but US firms are facing frustrations there. * South Korea’s president visited the...

GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 17 Jan 2022

Preliminary indications suggest that fires in Abu Dhabi, which killed three people at a fuel depot and disrupted the airport, were caused by drones. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility. The market impact so far has been relatively muted but could become more significant if ther...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 14 Jan 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases rose by two-thirds to new records, although deaths remain low. * Oil rose to $85, close to its highest since 2014, despite a resolution to Libya’s production outage and hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks ...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 07 Jan 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Daily covid cases hit a new record in the GCC but so far there have been very few recent deaths. * OPEC+ stuck with its taper but unrest in Kazakhstan has pushed oil up to $82. * PMIs remained strong in Qatar and UAE but...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 03 Jan 2022 1 response

Oman’s budget was released on Sunday, building on headline numbers announced a few weeks ago, along with more details of the preliminary 2021 outturn. Broadly speaking, the 2021 results and the 2022 budget show the government’s continued seriousness about fiscal consolidation, even after the unex...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 30 Dec 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases have increased 10-fold in two weeks, particularly in the UAE, but deaths remain low. * Oil has rebounded to $79, partly due to supply problems, including in Libya (where elections were postponed). * There appe...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 17 Dec 2021 1 response

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and IEA have concluded Omicron won’t have much of an impact on oil demand. * The GCC summit was a fairly standard affair, with the most notable features being King Salman’s absence and a softer approach to Iran in th...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 14 Dec 2021 2 responses

* The estimated 2021 Saudi deficit of -2.7% of GDP, the least since 2013, is larger than our forecast largely because of a sharp drop in revenue remitted from sovereign wealth funds. * The oil price assumption for 2022 has been hiked to about $65 (from $50 in the September pre-budget statement),...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 10 Dec 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There were hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks today, although the US is upping the pressure. * MBS completed his tour of the Gulf in Kuwait today. The most visible immediate outcome of the tour were agreements signed...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 06 Dec 2021

MBS arrived in Oman today on the first leg of a 5-country Gulf tour, his first significant foreign trip in two years. It comes ahead of Saudi Arabia's hosting of the annual Gulf summit and could result in progress in both GCC relations and also on wider regional issues such as Lebanon, Iran and T...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 03 Dec 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ surprised markets by sticking with its taper but hinted that it could reconsider mid-month if needed. * Iran nuclear talks finally reconvened, just as Iran restarted enrichment at a controversial underground site. ...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 30 Nov 2021

The emergence of yet another worrying Covid variant has raised concerns in the Gulf, as it has globally. No cases have been identified in the region yet, but its international connectivity, including as a hub for travel from Africa, does present vulnerabilities, as has been the case for previous ...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 26 Nov 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices took a hit, more from the new Covid variant than the US strategic reserves release plan. * Gulf states may be split on whether to pause the taper at next week's OPEC+ meeting. * A $15bn Aramco investment into ...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 19 Nov 2021

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped below $80 on Covid concerns and the potential release of strategic reserves. However, continued production problems for some OPEC members is more bullish for 2022 prices. * Saudi Arabia naturalized new citizens...

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 12 Nov 2021 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia issued $3.25bn in 30-year bonds and 9.5-year sukuk and is looking to refinance a $16bn loan. * Moody’s raised the Saudi outlook back to Stable on improved fiscal policy effectiveness. * The Saudi flash GDP show...