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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi non-oil GDP rises, Kuwait’s cabinet approved the debt law, SWFs make large acquisitions
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Mar 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi non-oil GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% in 2024, led by trade & hospitality and finance. * A Neom audit report raised concerns about rising costs and unrealistic revenue projections. * PIF’s video game subsidiary bou...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ affirms taper, Aramco cuts dividends, UAE fiscal surplus, Bahraini budget considers tax hikes
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Mar 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude touched a 4-year low of $68 on OPEC+ taper and Trump tariffs. * Kazakhstan recommitted to overproduction compensation; Iraq failed to restart northern exports. * PMIs mainly eased but remained strong in UAE an...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch negative outlook on Bahrain, Saudi issues bonds, Gaza's ceasefire deadline looms
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Feb 2025 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil dipped to $72, the lowest this year, on weak economic data. * The US imposed new sanctions on Iran’s exports and ended a waiver for Chevron in Venezuela. * Moody’s added a positive outlook for Oman’s banking but...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi hosts US-Russia talks and Trump at FII Miami, Qatar issues $3bn bonds and will graduate from the EMBI, HSBC exits Bahrain
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Feb 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The first 2.5km section of The Line is planned to have 60 times the area of the Burj Khalifa and 200k residents. * New forecasts for the Saudi deficit this year include -2.7% of GDP (SNB) and -3.8% (Fitch). * Saudi Arabia...

GULF WEEKLY: US tariffs threaten aluminum exporters, Saudi deficit is as expected, Kuwait plans bonds, Lebanon forms cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Feb 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump’s 25% tariff on aluminum will hurt Gulf exporters. They are already subject to 25% on steel. * The GCC states are unlikely to be priority targets for Trump’s mooted “reciprocal” tariffs. * As Trump engages with Russ...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait budgets a large deficit, Saudi PMI soars, Sharjah issues bond, GCC opposes Trump’s Gaza plan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Feb 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped for a third week despite Trump’s return to maximum pressure on Iran. * Saudi Arabia’s PMI surged to 60.5, the strongest in a decade. There were dips in other Gulf states. * Fitch puts the Saudi fiscal breakeven...

GULF WEEKLY: Strong Q4 Saudi GDP, Dubai-AD rail link, Oman income tax debated, Trump proposes Gaza relocation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jan 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices declined for a second week, but the premium of Gulf crude over Brent is at a record $2. * Rystad forecasts the share of renewables in GCC electricity to surge from 3% to 70% by 2050. * The Saudi Q4 flash GDP re...

GULF WEEKLY: Trump demands a lower oil price and Saudi cash, MGX invests in US AI infrastructure, Oman Article IV published
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jan 2025 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf delegations were highly visible at Davos, on panels and in their national pavilions. * Trump demanded at Davos that OPEC reduce oil prices, saying this would end the war in Ukraine. * Pending IPOs include Derayah and...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediates a Gaza ceasefire, Saudi’s Maaden plans bonds, Kuwait confirms sin tax, Gulf states re-engage with Lebanon
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jan 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil touched a five-month high following substantive US sanctions on Russian oil tankers. * OPEC and the IEA still diverge on oil demand forecasts and by 0.6m b/d on the 2024 outturn. * Following the signing of its C...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil touches 3-month high, KSA issues $12bn bonds, Bahrain’s non-oil GDP rebounds but oil output is weak, Lebanon elects a president
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Jan 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil briefly rose above $80, a three-month high, on cold weather and sanctions concerns. * Regional PMIs ended the year strongly, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. * KSA issued $12bn in bonds, albeit short-dated, 7...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman achieves 2024 fiscal surplus, KSA's current account falls into deficit, and Q3 non-oil GDP accelerates in Qatar and Abu Dhabi but contracts in Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude has rebounded to $76, the highest since October, on hopes of stimulus. * Qatar, Kuwait and Oman all announced plans for 15% top-up taxes on large multinationals. * The Saudi current account fell into deficit i...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch turns positive on Oman, CI upgrades KSA, Gulf states cut interest rates, Dubai awards metro expansion
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Dec 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states mainly cut rates by -25bp, but Kuwait held steady, and Qatar cut by an extra -5bp. * An IMF policy report for the GCC recommended fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. * GCC debt capital markets crossed...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi World Cup, UAE to tax multinationals 15%, Oman may postpone income tax, Saudi and Qatar GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Dec 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC again reduced its 2024-25 oil demand forecasts, which are still far higher than the IEA. * The UAE has reportedly sharply cut oil allocations for Q1, possibly to comply with its quota. * Britain's PM visited UAE and ...

Syria post-Assad: outlook and implications for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Dec 2024 · 1 response

* While there is plenty to worry about, Syrians are celebrating the end of a brutal regime. * HTS has become the dominant force in much of Syria, but the balance with other groups is unclear. * HTS made encouraging pronouncements, including about minorities, women and non-retribution. * The gr...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ slows its taper, PMIs surge in KSA and Kuwait, Syrian rebels capture Aleppo and Hama
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Dec 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ reduced 2025 taper plans by 1m b/d and extended cuts into 2026, but the market shrugged. * Participating GCC states will increase output in 2025 by a third of what was previously planned. * Gulf leaders met in Kuwai...

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