Services

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​OMAN: More data needed to clarify the Q1 fiscal performance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 May 2021

Oman is now publishing fiscal data with just a month lag. The year started pretty well with signs of further expenditure consolidation in January and February. March spending ticked up quite a lot and may have been even higher in reality if it was the first month in which oil production costs wer...

​GULF WEEKLY: Moody’s negative on Bahrain, S&P affirms Sharjah, QP might issue $10bn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Apr 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Moody’s put Bahrain on negative outlook and sees debt rising to 140% of GDP by 2023. * S&P affirmed Sharjah but sharply cut its fiscal outlook, with debt up to 63% of GDP by 2024. * Its update on RAK was more positive, wi...

SAUDI ARABIA: Highlights from MBS’s remarkable interview
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Apr 2021 · 1 response

In a 90-min interview marking the 5th anniversary of his Vision 2030 strategy, MBS made major announcements on taxes (VAT will be reduced, there will be no income tax) and financing (Aramco may raise about $19bn selling equity to a "global energy company" and the 2030 target for PIF's assets has ...

​GULF WEEKLY: Covid wave eases, JCPOA negotiations progress and Saudi-Iran talks take place
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Apr 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * US-Iran talks seem to be making good progress after the US clarified sanctions it could lift. * Secret Saudi-Iran talks were mediated by Iraq, focusing on Yemen and Lebanon. * The latest coronavirus wave in the region may...

​GULF WEEKLY: Aramco sells pipelines, US-UAE arms deal approved, Kuwaiti former PM detained
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Apr 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IMF sees the fiscal breakevens improving relative to 2019 in all bar Kuwait and Bahrain. * It forecasts a surprisingly wide range of oil and non-oil recoveries across the region. * Israeli sabotage overshadowed US-Ira...

​GULF WEEKLY: Iran talks begin, IMF forecasts brighten, but Covid wave worsens
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Apr 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The first week of US-Iran indirect nuclear talks in Vienna seemed to make progress. * Coronavirus cases rose sharply in most Gulf states, and Qatar entered a new lockdown. * The IMF’s 2021 forecast increased GCC growth to...

​Turkey-Gulf re-engagement: Both stand to benefit but it won’t be easy
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Apr 2021

This report was co-written by GlobalSource Partners GCC Country Analyst Justin Alexander and GlobalSource Partners Turkey Political Analyst Atilla Yesilada. * Amid its latest crisis, Turkey could benefit from financing, trade and tourism from the Gulf, particularly if it can patch up relations...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ tapers, Saudi plans $3trn capex, Kuwaiti MPs boycott parliament
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Apr 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ will taper by 1.1m b/d and eliminate the 1m b/d in extra Saudi cuts by July. * Coronavirus continued to worsen across the region, with Qatar expected to go into lockdown. * There were hints of a softening in both US...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s emir returns to a crisis, Covid worsens, IMF lifts Bahrain debt forecasts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Mar 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases are on the rise, particularly in Bahrain and Kuwait, and new restrictions are being introduced. * Saudi Arabia rehashed a Yemen ceasefire proposal that the Houthis unsurprisingly rejected. This comes as their a...

​GULF WEEKLY: Oil pulls back, Saudi GDP recovers in Q4, Bahrain breaches debt ceiling
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Mar 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dropped sharply after a five-month rally, and the IEA published its medium-term outlook. *Iran’s president criticized hardliners' obstructing efforts to secure US sanctions relief. There is still time for progress be...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit hit $78bn, GDP data for UAE & Kuwait, Covid gets political in Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Mar 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * Saudi Arabia’s deficit more than doubled to $78bn despite above-budget non-oil revenue. * Spending was up by 2% y/y due to Covid, but salaries and capex were cut in line with plans. * Saudi Arabia lifted most Covi...

Higher oil prices offer temporary relief but could stall reforms
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 09 Mar 2021

Higher-than-expected oil prices are great news for the Gulf, particularly the weaker sovereigns, and deficits should be lower than originally feared; in the most bullish case even Saudi Arabia could achieve a surplus. However, even then, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait would still have significant finan...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ postpones taper, Khashoggi report reverberates, Kuwait forms cabinet
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Mar 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * OPEC+ surprised markets by keeping cuts unchanged for April, including Saudi’s extra 1m b/d. * Iran rejected an EU proposal for talks but there were hints of a softening later in the week after the US withdrew a cr...

​UAE: Sharjah taps the bond market despite downgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Mar 2021

Sharjah is raising $1bn in 7 and 12-year bonds despite downgrades by rating agencies to the verge of junk status and little sign of a plan to bring its structural deficit under control. Implicit support from Abu Dhabi remains key to the story.

SAUDI ARABIA: Khashoggi report blames MBS and US imposes travel ban on 76 Saudis
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 26 Feb 2021

The declassified summary of the US National Intelligence report is very brief (500 words). It states “we assess” that MBS approved an operation “to capture or kill” Jamal Khashoggi based on: "His control of decision making in the Kingdom;The direct involvement of a key adviser and members of Muha...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.