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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Federal budget surplus exceeded R2.3 trln in 11M21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budget surplus exceeded R 2.3 trln amid strong revenue collection and rather moderate spending in November. In 11M total revenues exceeded the initial annual plan by 19.6% as oil-and-gas revenues exceeded the annual target by 36.6%. Non-oil-and-gas r...

​OFZ: Russian institutional investors have reduced positions in 3Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2021

CBR has published data on OFZ holdings by local institutional investors following as of end of 3Q21. For the first time in a year, they reduced positions in government bonds (-R51 bln in nominal terms in June-September). Pension funds have cut investments by R48 bln, and insurance companies --- b...

Russian macro forecast: emphasis on inflation and rates as growth returned and “booster” sanctions offered
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 09 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that 2Q21 GDP was up by 4.3% y-o-y, implying that the economic growth could vary between 4.6% and 4.7% in 9М21, which is in line with our previous 2021 GDP growth forecast, which ranged from 4.2% to 4.3%. In 2022 GDP growth will naturally decelerate. What has changed signific...

The current account surplus to be record high in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Dec 2021

The CBR published its flash estimate of the 11M21 current account surplus and the trade balance. The former widened from $94.4bn in 10M21 to $111.4bn. The latter increased to $162.8 bn. In 2021 as a whole, the current account will likely reach $128bn (if not more) therefore beating the historical...

Consumer lending rates climbed, weekly inflation statistics surprised
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2021

The CBR published October statistics on consumer lending and deposits rates that continued to climb (but not evenly and proportionally) as the regulator moved its key rate up. As the key rate was hiked last time by 75 bps at the end of October, the effect of this particular rate hike is yet to be...

Investment activity rebounds in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that investment in production capacity was up y-o-y by 7.8% in 3Q21 and by 7.6% in 9M21. Investment increased almost all across the economy apart from the mining sector (down by 0.2% y-o-y in 9M21). This decline occurred due to a 6.4% contraction of investment in the oil-and-gas....

Economic growth looked decent in October but accelerated inflation will erode it at year-end
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2021

Rosstat reported that in 10M21 and October, the aggregate output of the five basic sectors (industry, transport, trade, construction, agriculture) was up y-o-y by 6.3% and 6.5%. This measure of the country’s economic activity is usually more volatile than GDP but is calculated monthly, while the ...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: facing challenges… having created them
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Dec 2021

After a rather mild weekly lockdown in early November, Russia’s daily incidence rate declined gradually from over 40K to 32-33K on November 30 and December 1. Even though the daily death toll remains high, it started to subside as well. Russia’s numbers do not look too high compared to many Europ...

Consumer credit growth remains strong, albeit slows moderately in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2021

The Central bank reported that the stock of bank credits to households grew by 1.65% m-o-m in October and reached R25.6 trln. In September credits grew by 1.73% m-o-m versus 1.93% m-o-m in August. Out of this amount, mortgages accounted for R11.4 trln and grew m-o-m by slightly more than 2.0%. Th...

Decent rate of industrial growth in October amid high inflation and decelerating credit growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021

Industrial performance was good enough in October. Rosstat reported that industrial production was up y-o-y by 7.1% in October and 5.0% in 10M21. Seasonally and calendar adjusted by Rosstat m-o-m growth was positive (0.8%). The mining sector grew y-o-y by 10.9% and 3.7% over the same periods, whi...

Russia’s 3Q21 GDP growth is in line with expectations, while elevated inflation boosts nominal GDP numbers
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2021

Rosstat published its flash estimate of the 3Q21 y-o-y GDP growth (4.3%), which appeared in line with expectations and didn’t challenge the view that in 2021 as a whole Russia’s GDP will grow by around 4.2%. Rosstat provided no more details on the 3Q21 GDP. No breakdown of growth by sectors, no s...

Russian macro: how Minfin’s actions hamper the effectiveness of CBR policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Nov 2021

Russian federal budget revenues soared this year and exceeded the initial annual plan by 8.9% in 10M21. Oil-and-gas revenues were 21.8% higher than expected, while the rest of the revenues were 2.1% above the planned annual amount. In 10M21, the government spent 85% of budgeted expenditure, which...

Russia is back as a twin-surplus economy in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that in 10M21 federal budget revenues exceeded the formally approved annual budget plan by 8.9%. Oil-and-gas revenues exceeded the annual plan by 21.8%, while the non-oil-and-gas revenues were higher than the annual target by 2.8%. Total revenues reached R20.4 trln w...

Russian macro: mortgages to remain in demand despite higher key rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Nov 2021

Consumer credit and mortgages, which grew fast during the pandemic, remain among the pillars of Russia’s economic growth. In 2Q20 the government offered subsidies for mortgages so that households were able to borrow at a fixed rate (6.5%), implying that banks provided mortgage loans below the mar...

Inflation up to 8.13% y-o-y in October despite CBR series of rate hikes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Nov 2021

Rosstat reported that inflation in October continued to accelerate – the m-o-m figure was at 1.11%, while inflation y-o-y accelerated to 8.13%. Inflation YTD reached 6.49%. Inflation w-o-w remained steady and high, showing no clear signs of deceleration (in the seven days ending on November 1, it...

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