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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia’s political/pandemic update: Russia and the West − “social distancing” to continue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 May 2021

Despite mild restrictions and widespread non-compliance with safety protocols by ordinary Russians, in April and early May Russia’s pandemic situation remained generally unchanged, showing neither deterioration nor improvement. The officially reported daily number of newly infected people fluctua...

Economic activity is flat y-o-y in 1Q21, key rate hikes to limit growth going forward
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that in 1Q21 output of the five basic sectors was flat y-o-y, while in March, it increased by 2.4% y-o-y. Even though trends in industry, agriculture, construction, transport, and trade (retail and wholesale) that contribute to over 60% of the country’s economic activity, were un...

The CBR has chosen to accelerate rate hikes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2021

The CBR raised the key by 50 bps to 5.0% and explained it by the need to contain inflation expectations, which according to the CBR, remain elevated. The regulator also mentioned that the domestic economy is recovering faster than was anticipated - on the back of strengthening domestic demand to ...

Economic growth gradually turns positive y-o-y in most sectors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Apr 2021

As was generally expected, most of Russia’s monthly indicators improved in March and posted positive y-o-y growth. This growth will strengthen in the coming months due to a low base effect in 2Q20. The only exemption in March was retail sales as y-o-y growth remained negative due to a high base i...

Russian economy: More sanctions, more resilience
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Apr 2021

It appears almost certain that, after the US administration sanctioned the OFZ market, more sanctions will be imposed later this year, and in the years to come, as both sides, i. e., the West and Russia, will be keen to continue playing the same game for years, and even longer. Therefore, mountin...

​Industrial production to grow fast this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that even though the mining segment remained under pressure due to the OPEC+ deal and in 1Q21 contracted by 7.3% y-o-y, in March contraction was not so deep as the extraction of gas, coal, and metal ores were up y-o-y. Starting from May, y-o-y growth in the mining segment will tu...

OFZ market is sanctioned by the US, albeit moderately
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Apr 2021

Today, US President Mr. Biden signed an executive order, which imposes new sanctions against Russia. According to the document US financial institutions from “participation in the primary market for ruble or non-ruble denominated bonds issued after June 14, 2021” by Minfin, CBR, or National Wealt...

Inflation slows and may decelerate faster than expected
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that inflation was at 0.1% over the seven days ending on April 12. From April 1 to April 12, it also remained at 0.1%. There are more signs of gradually declining prices across a growing number of products of the consumption basket. These observations generally support GKEM Analy...

The Russian budget posted a surplus in 1Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that revenue collection soared in March so that in 1Q21 the government was able to collect 28.2% of total revenues targeted for 2021 as a whole. In 1Q21 the government collected 27.0% of annually planned oil-and-gas revenues and 28.8% of the non-oil-and-gas revenues....

Balance of payments remains stable in 1Q21
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2021

Russia’s balance of payments continued to evolve in 1Q21 and looked relatively healthy. The current account surplus reached $16.8bn, while the trade surplus was at $24.4 bn. Even though these numbers are lower than in 2Q20 ($23.9 bn and $33.1 bn), they looked solid. Note that Russia’s oil exports...

Russia’s macro: CBR promises more rate hikes despite moderate growth, lower inflation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Apr 2021

As Russia’s y-o-y inflation has remained high in recent months, the Central Bank of Russia has become more hawkish. After the 25 bps rate hike at its latest meeting, it warned of more hikes this year. Historically, the key rate was usually a few months behind inflation, especially at tipping poin...

Inflation peaked in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that inflation in March reached 0.66% m-o-m, which is a deceleration compared to m-o-m in February. Even though y-o-y inflation reached 5.79% it is only slightly higher than y-o-y inflation in February. Overall, in the second half of March inflation w-o-w started to decelerate. I...

Russia’s 2020 GDP is revised up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Apr 2021

Rosstat announced that according to its second estimate, Russia’s GDP contracted by 3.0% instead of 3.1% reported previously. The result is not unexpected as earlier upward revisions of the 2018 and 2019 growth should have affected the 2020 data. At the same time, Rosstat finally released quarter...

Russia’s Pandemic/Political Update: Every Sandpiper Praises its Swamp
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Apr 2021

In the past four weeks, Russia’s daily average registered virus cases gradually descended from around 10K to around 9K, and were getting closer to 8K quite often in recent days. Overall, the trend was downward so far, albeit decelerating. The country’s epidemiological picture looked more favorabl...

The economy steadily recovers as historical statistical data consistently revised up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2021

Rosstat reported that Russia’s aggregate output in the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade, which represent nearly two-thirds of GDP) was down by 2.3% y-o-y. This result looks good given the high base effect in February 2020 due to a leap year's additional da...

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