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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Kazakhstan macro: economy doing well—but unclear how well
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 May 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that economic growth looked strong in 1Q25 and 4M25: in the former case, GDP grew by 5.6% y-o-y, and in the latter case, the short-term indicator was up y-o-y by 8.5% in 4M25 and 8.9% in April alone. The short-term indicator grew faster than GDP because ...

Budgets of various levels perform differently in 4M25 - subject to revenue sources
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 May 2025

As the Kazakh economy reportedly posted strong growth in 4M25, as the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity in six key sectors of the country’s economy) was up by 8.5% y-o-y, budget revenues in various segments of the budgetary system were reasonably strong. Meanwhile, a few ...

Economic growth in 4M25 looked strong y-o-y amid a low base effect
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 May 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics announced that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of economic activity that includes industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and IT/communication segments) grew by 8.5% y-o-y in 4M25. To remind the m-o-m statistics are unavailable for t...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 May 2025

Apr 30 Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan is considering an increase of oil supplies to Germany to 2.2 mln tons in 2025 (vs initially planned 1.5 mln tons). Parliament: The Lower Chamber has approved a new Tax Code, which assumes VAT increases up to 16%. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Kazakhstan introduce...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge gradually weakens on lower oil, but not enough
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 07 May 2025

In recent days, the Kazakh authorities published macroeconomic statistics that shed additional light on the country’s situation (which looks not bad at all) and possible challenges ahead. Despite accelerated economic growth in 1Q25, it looks as though tax collection wasn't sufficient, not only in...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Apr 2025

Apr 17 The Parliament: The Upper Chamber of the Parliament of Kazakhstan has ratified the agreement with the CIS on free trade in the services sector. Ministry of Trade: Kazakhstan has not yet discussed the issue of retaliatory tariff increases on imports. President: During a telephone conversati...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth reportedly accelerates as tax collection improves
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Apr 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy of combined economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation/warehousing, and IT/communications) grew by 8.3% y-o-y in 1Q25. In March alone, its y-o-y growth was even higher (9...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025

Apr 3 National pipeline company: The volume of Kazakh oil transportation to Germany via the Druzhba oil pipeline in March reached 150K tons and increased by 50% compared to February. Ministry of Trade: US tariffs will affect less than 5% of Kazakhstan exports to the US. KMG: The heads of KMG and ...

Economic growth accelerated in 1Q25, the NBK keeps base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Apr 2025

The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its base rate unchanged at 16.5%, which looks unsurprising given that y-o-y inflation climbed to 10.0% in March amid m-o-m inflation at 1.3%-1.5% in the past two months. The NBK chairman, Mr. Suleimenov, quoted high inflation expectations as one of the main re...

Kazakhstan macro: Exchange rate in the spotlight amid tariff games
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 09 Apr 2025

The USD/KZT has been on a roller coaster in recent months, pushed up and down by various factors. After several months of natural depreciation that lasted until the end of January 2025, when the USD/KZT tested 530 in mid-January, the Kazakh currency moved below 500 a month later. Now, it is appro...

The US tariffs on Kazakhstan look peculiar, but the overall impact of the US trade policy won’t be unnoticed
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

As the US administration published the list of countries and tariffs imposed on many countries, Kazakhstan found itself in a quite peculiar situation as its foreign trade with the US so far was insignificant. According to the Kazakh Bureau of National Statistics, exports to the US accounted for a...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025

Mar 19 Energy Ministry: Mr Akkezhenov (formerly Deputy Minister) has been appointed as the new Minister of Energy. National nuclear company: In 2024, Kazatomprom’s net profit increased by 38%. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan held talks with French EDF. These negotiations are part of the process of ch...

Kazakhstan macro: Budget revenues grow YoY but not enough, prompting tax reform
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Mar 2025

We recently mentioned that the republican budget accumulated about 15.1% of annually planned tax revenues in 2M25, which looks like an improvement compared with January, when the authorities collected only 5.1% of the annual plan. However, things still don’t look very reassuring as some taxes are...

Revenue collection improves in 2M25, but more improvement is required
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Mar 2025

The Ministry of Finance published February budget statistics, and the numbers looked comparatively better than in 2M24. However, more action is required to avoid unnecessary FX interventions associated with various schemes to raise additional revenues. As in 2M25, the USD/KZT was close to 515, wh...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Mar 2025

Mar 6 President: Mr. Tokayev held a phone conversation with the Russian President, Mr. Putin, and discussed the implementation of joint trade and energy projects and economic relations in general. Mar 7 NBK: The Bank hiked the base rate from 15.25% to 16.5%. National pipeline company: Kazakh oil ...

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