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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 Nov 2023

Nov 17 Economy Ministry: The draft of the new Tax Code, which is due to come into force in Kazakhstan in 2025, includes the introduction of a two-step scale of personal income tax rates for salaries Ministry of Transport: Kazakhstan is ready to transfer two of its ports - Aktau and Kuryk - to the...

Budget deficits grow as FX sales from the National Fund appreciate the tenge and trim revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 10M23, the republican budget deficit reached KZT 2.9trln, while the plan for this period was far smaller (KZT 2.355 trln) as the deficit for 2023, as a whole, assumed the KZT 3.209 total amount. In 10M23, the government financed 78.0% of annual planned exp...

National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts the base rate to 15.75%
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Nov 2023

On November 23, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 15.75%. The regulator referred to slowing inflation (0.7% m-o-m and 10.8% y-o-y in October) and now expects it to fall to the 9.3%-10.3% range by the end of the year. Next year's inflation target remains unchanged at...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2023

Nov 2 President: Kazakhstan and Hungary have the potential to increase the annual trade turnover to $1 bln (vs $172.2 mln in FY22) Nov 3 Energy Ministry: In 2024, oil extraction in Kazakhstan may exceed 90 mln tons Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan's gas exports to China will amount to 11 bcm in the ye...

Kazakhstan’s economy continues to grow steadily
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Nov 2023

According to a preliminary estimate of the Bureau of National Statistics, in 9M23, the country’s GDP expanded by 4.7% y-o-y—not a bad result despite some deceleration of growth compared to 1H23 (5.0% y-o-y). There are still powerful 2022 base effects, which could lift GDP growth in 4Q24 and the 2...

Kazakhstan macro: A vicious circle not yet broken
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 Nov 2023

The excessively strong tenge was one of the main reasons for the widening republican budget deficit in 9M23. Another reason for the wider deficit was the amended expenditures—along with the assumption that the revenue would grow as much as the additional spending. As the latter has not yet happen...

Kazakhstan macro: Too-strong tenge still hindering budget revenue growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 02 Nov 2023

On October 30, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published the budgetary statistics for 9M23, and the publication appeared later than usual. One cannot rule out that this delay was caused by internal discussions about the feasibility of the amended 2023 budget plan, as well as the 2024 budget. Tax...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

Oct 20 Bereke Bank: An investor from Qatar is evaluating Kazakhstani Bereke Bank (a former subsidiary of Russian Sberbank). The aim is to propose the Kazakh government to purchase the controlling stake in the institution. Ministry of Trade: The Government confirms that there is no ban on exports ...

Strong current account deficit persists in 3Q23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

The National Bank reported that in 3Q23, the current account again registered a strong deficit ($2.9bn), although this deficit was slightly narrower than in 2Q23 (close to $3.3bn). In 9M23, the current account deficit widened to almost $7.7 bn. The trade balance in 9M23 was in surplus ($13.7 bn),...

Kazakhstan economics: Economic growth to moderate as domestic credit growth is set to decelerate
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Oct 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan reported that the short-term economic indicator (the Bureau’s monthly measure of overall economic activity in the country) grew by 4.6% y-o-y in 9M23. The growth rate was higher in 7M23 and 8M23—5.3% y-o-y. In 1H23, this indicator grew even faster—b...

Kazakhstan fixed income: The debt market is attractive, but the moment is not perfect
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 18 Oct 2023

Uncertainty still prevails in Kazakhstan’s debt market. The increased exchange rate volatility is limiting the demand for securities denominated in tenge. The weakening of the national currency will lead to higher budget revenues in the remaining months of the year, but even under these condition...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Oct 2023

Oct 6 National Bank: The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to cut the base rate from 16.5% to 16% with a corridor of +/- 1 pp National Bank: The base rate in Kazakhstan at the level of 16% is balanced, and no hike is on the agenda Oct 7 Gas supply: President...

As y-o-y inflation slows, NBK cuts the base rate to 16%
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 06 Oct 2023

On October 6, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its base rate from 16.5% to 16.0%. This move looks quite cautious but justified. On the one hand, from April to September, average monthly inflation remained at 0.6% m-o-m, implying that the annualized 6M moving average inflation fell to 7.4%. The...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Oct 2023

Sep 21 KTZ: The National railway company in January-August increased grain loading and transportation by 45% y-o-y to over 7.7 million tons. Sep 22 Government: Kazakhstan plans to develop 75 companies to develop cotton growing and the textile industry, which will deliver over 40K new jobs and abo...

Kazakhstan macro: long-awaited tenge depreciation to boost budget revenues in 2024
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Sep 2023

The Kazakh Finance Ministry recently published regular monthly budgetary statistics for August, including the cash flow data of the National Fund, the execution of the republican and aggregate local budgets, and the consolidated budget. Statistics on the National Fund’s revenue flow reveals that ...

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