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Kazakhstan macro: gradually increasing trade with Europe to remain an important GDP driver
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 03 Mar 2025

A few weeks ago, we briefly broached the evolution of the 2024 aggregate structure of Kazakhstan's balance of payments and some issues related to the recent volatility of the tenge. In this report, we concentrate on some details of foreign trade statistics that provide additional color on economi...

Inflation accelerates, base rate hike is likely in March
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Mar 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in February, inflation m-o-m accelerated to 1.5% (versus 1.1% m-o-m in January). The y-o-y tally climbed to 9.4% (versus 8.9% in January). Prices rose across the board – for services, food, or non-food items. The latter implies that the main reason ...

Kazakhstan macro: Various factors are pushing the tenge off equilibrium again
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Feb 2025 · 1 response

In our previous reports, we have repeatedly mentioned that an excessively strong tenge was one of the main reasons for the poor flow of the exchange rate-related taxes on various levels of the country’s budgetary system, including the National Fund. As the tenge weakened in December and remained ...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Feb 2025

Feb 6 Prime minister: Kazakhstan gives priority to localization of production and technology transfer when choosing vendors for nuclear power plant construction. Feb 7 Fitch: The agency confirms the QazaqGaz rating at BB+ with a "stable" outlook. NBK: Demand for gold bars from private individuals...

GDP grew by 4.8% in 2024, growth acceleration unlikely this year
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Feb 2025

Last Friday, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that the country’s GDP grew by 4.8%, which is not too bad (albeit the government growth targets are more ambitious). Production of goods (35% of GDP) was up by 5.6%, as industry, agriculture, and construction delivered 2.8%, 13.7%, and 13.1%...

Economic activity in January looks uneven across segments as statistics sends puzzling signals
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Feb 2025

The National Bureau of Statistics began publishing its regular macroeconomic statistics for January, and some data appear surprising. For instance, passenger transportation continued to grow fast in January (by 15.0% y-o-y) having increased by 13.8% in 2024 as a whole. Freight transportation grew...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025

Jan 24 Tengichevroil: Oil production has begun as part of the “Future expansion” project at the Tengiz oil field. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan wants to choose the vendor for the nuclear plant construction project by July. NBK: The Bank increased its gross gold and FX reserves by 27% (up to $45.8 b...

The current account deficit widened in 4Q24, and January tax collection is likely to be poor
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025

The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported that the current account deficit widened to $2.9 bln in 4Q24 (versus $0.3 trln in 3Q24) and reached $4.4 bln in 2024. In 4Q24, exports decreased by about $1.2 bln compared to 3Q24, while imports rose by $0.9 bln. Lower oil prices and limited volumes of exp...

Kazakhstan macro: government considering reform agenda amid overspending and fiscal difficulties
KAZAKHSTAN · Forecast · 31 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The Kazakh Ministry of Finance recently released the budgetary statistics for full-year 2024. The figures didn’t look impressive, either for the republican budget or the National Fund, because their revenues strongly depend on the exchange rate. Local budgets, however, performed very well because...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Jan 2025

Jan 10 UN: The organization expected Kazakhstan's GDP to grow by 4% in 2024, it expects 4.8% annual growth in 2025-2026. National railways: The cargo turnover of the national railway carrier (Kazakhstan Temir Zholy) grew by 1.1% y-o-y in 2024. Jan 14 NBK: Kazakhstan's international reserves decre...

Kazakhstan macro: The unexpectedly high rate of economic growth in 4Q24 is unlikely to persist in 2025
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Jan 2025

In a few days, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance will publish budgetary statistics for the entire year 2024, but it looks as though spending soared in December. It already started accelerating in October-November. We mentioned earlier that apart from the generous budgetary stimulus, expanding hous...

NBK holds its base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jan 2025

The National Bank of Kazakhstan announced today that it decided to keep the base rate at 17.25%, quoting the usual symptoms, such as rising inflationary pressures, some signs of domestic demand overheating, and the lack of spare production capacities. Inflation in Kazakhstan remained at 0.9% m-o-...

Economic activity reportedly soared in December, albeit quite unexpectedly
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics announced that in 2024, the short-term indicator (that takes into account activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communications) soared to 6.2%. In 11M24, it was up by 5.6%, implying a rapid acceleration in December alone. Mea...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jan 2025

Dec 26 NBK: The regulator has approved a 5-year strategy for digitalization of the financial market regulation. Dec 28 President: Mr. Tokayev and the Russian President Mr. Putin had a telephone conversation and discussed the situation around the crash of an Azerbaijani plane near Aktau. Jan 3 Pre...

Kazakhstan macro: Fiscal Year 2025 may still be challenging despite the weaker tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Dec 2024

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance recently published budget execution statistics for various segments of the budgetary system, including extra-budgetary funds and the National Fund incorporated in the consolidated budget. The fiscal trends that we have regularly covered didn’t change much, apart f...

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