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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation accelerates in September, prompting the National Bank to raise rates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Oct 2022

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation reached 1.8% m-o-m, 15.4% YTD, and 17.7% y-o-y in September. Even though the September figure was higher than expected, price increases differed across segments of the consumption basket. Food items became more expensive by 1.2% m...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 Sep 2022

Sep 15 Bureau of National Statistics: Kazakhstan’s industrial production grew by 2.5% y-o-y in 8M22 Sep 16 Parliament: The Parliament of Kazakhstan unanimously adopted amendments to the Constitution on a one-time 7-year presidency and renaming of the capital Bureau of National Statistics: Agricul...

Kazakhstan macro: budget is stable despite amendments as revenue collection is strong
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Sep 2022

Budget execution statistics in 8M22 show that the country’s fiscal situation remains good enough despite the amended revenues and various shocks Kazakhstan has experienced in recent months. They indicated that the economic situation looks good, as well. Apart from high KZT volatility in 2Q22, the...

The current account surplus widens in 2Q22
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Sep 2022 · 1 response

The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported that the country’s current account surplus widened in 2Q22 and reached $4.135 bn. In 1Q22, it was at $2.512 bn. Hence this surplus reached $6.647 bn in 1H22. In 2021 the current account was in deficit each quarter, and its annual deficit was at $5.737bn. N...

Kazakhstan macro: navigating between Scylla and Charybdis
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Sep 2022

Even as Russia and a few other countries are heading toward a recession, Kazakhstan is doing relatively well this year – despite high inflation and some disruptions in the oil-and-gas sector caused by maintenance work in two main oil fields and problems with the CPC. The economic outlook looks de...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Sep 2022

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary Sep 2 Sberbank: The bank has sold its subsidiary bank in Kazakhstan to the state-owned Baiterek Sep 5 S&P: The agency has confirmed the sovereign ratings of Kazakhstan at investment grade level (BBB-). Though the outlook has been changed from "stable" to "negative"...

Economic growth decelerates in August, albeit unevenly across sectors
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Sep 2022

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for GDP) grew by 3.7% in 8M22 (in 7M22 it was up by 4.0%). The Kazakh statistical agency doesn't publish m-o-m and even y-o-y monthly figures for some economic indicators so that only cumulative numbers, suc...

The National Bank of Kazakhstan left the base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Sep 2022

On September 5, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to leave its policy rate at 14.5% despite the fact that inflation in August accelerated m-o-m to 1.4% from 1.1% in July as reported by the Bureau of National Statistics. In May inflation was also 1.4% m-o-m while in June it was slightly high...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 01 Sep 2022

Aug 22 CPC: The company has suspended the operation of two of the three remote berthing devices at the marine terminal due to damage Aug 23 Agriculture Ministry: Kazakhstan expects grain harvest in 2022 at the level of 18.3 mln tons (vs 16.4 mln tons in FY 2021) Sberbank: The bank announced that ...

President Tokaev offers to boost liberal economic reforms and hold an early presidential election
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 01 Sep 2022

President Tokaev (69) suggested holding an early presidential election this year, limiting the presidential term by seven years and not allowing re-election. Mr. Tokaev delivered these proposals in his address to the nation at a joint meeting of the lower and upper chambers of the parliament. As ...

The Kazakh government expects the economy to grow around 4% in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 31 Aug 2022

At a government meeting last Friday, the authorities presented their view on the country’s economic growth in 2023 and beyond and discussed various scenarios. The baseline scenario assumes that the oil price would stay at $85/bbl on average and the KZT/$ averages at 470 in 2023. GDP is expected t...

Kazakhstan macro: high oil prices to support revenue flow for the rest of the year
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 29 Aug 2022

On August 27, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Zhamaubaev presented a draft law on the Republican budget for 2023-2025. Mr. Zhamaubaev mentioned that republican budget revenues are expected at KZT 17.8 trln next year while expenditures should reach KZT 21.0 trln. Hence the deficit is expected t...

Consolidated budget surplus narrows in July as republican budget deficit widens – as planned
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Aug 2022

The Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan reported that in 7M22, the authorities were able to accumulate KZT11.853 trln of revenues in the consolidated budget out of KZT18.612 trln targeted for the full year. This budget accounts for budgets of all levels, the National Fund, and state social funds, a...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Aug 2022

Aug 5 NC KMG: In 1H22 KazMunayGas increased oil production (including gas condensate) by 0.3% y-o-y and gas production by 0.8% y-o-y Aug 10 NCOC: Oil production has resumed at the Kashagan field, suspended due to a gas leak at one of the facilities Aug 11 Energy Ministry: Oil production at the Ka...

Kazakhstan macro: Economic growth slows as geopolitical uncertainty bites
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 18 Aug 2022

After Kazakhstan’s GDP grew in 1Q22 by 4.4% y-o-y, the Bureau of National Statistics preliminarily reported that in 1H22, the economy grew by 3.4%. If so, then it means that in 2H22, the GDP grew less than 2.5% y-o-y. It looks as though the economy continued to slow in July as well, as the short-...

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