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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Give me some doughnuts
CHILE · Report · 02 Mar 2021 · 1 response

The Monthly Index of Economic activity (IMACEC) in December surprised strongly on the upside, and provided a slight upward bias to our 2021 growth projection of 6.5%. The monthly variation of the seasonally-adjusted series excluding mining was 4.4%, the best result since September 2020. According...

Finance Minister Ignacio Briones resigned
CHILE · In Brief · 26 Jan 2021

As expected, Finance Minister Ignacio Briones resigned on Tuesday to launch a presidential run. Briones’ political skills and common touch made him a valued addition to the government in the aftermath of the 2019 protests. His popularity has made him a natural choice as a presidential candidate f...

Recovery, but with significant risks
CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2021 · 1 response

Economic recovery resumed in November after October’s pause, although less intensely than in August and September. Although the 0.3% 12-month variation was helped by a low comparison base due to the violent protests of Q4 2019, the seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC increased by 1.4% m/m. In t...

International Reserves Replacement and Expansion Program
CHILE · In Brief · 13 Jan 2021

In an unexpected decision, the Central Bank of Chile announced today the purchase of US$ 12 billion in the spot market with the goal of increasing international reserves to 18% of GDP (the highest figure since 2003). The Central Bank plans to buy US$ 40 million per day over a period of 15 months....

Struggling to move on
CHILE · Report · 16 Nov 2020

During September the IMACEC suggested a further acceleration in the recovery. Any resulting optimism should be tempered, however, by one-off factors. The performance of retail sales for September was atypically positive, favored by a temporary boost from the partial withdrawal of pension savings....

80% Approve
CHILE · Report · 26 Oct 2020 · 1 response

In an 80-20 vote, Chileans opted to begin a process to draft a new constitution. In April they will elect a constituent assembly, which will then have a year to do its job. The process introduces new uncertainty to Chilean politics, but also helps the country heal not only from the conflict of th...

A fast but uncertain recovery
CHILE · Report · 21 Sep 2020

Economic activity continues to be hit hard by the pandemic, but seems to be recovering faster than expected. In July, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) surprised on the upside. In line with the IMACEC, the gradual recovery in retail sales continued in July, and the result surprised ...

Putting the worst behind us
CHILE · Report · 13 Aug 2020

Recent economic data support the idea that economic shrinkage bottomed out in May, and there are reasons to believe that the recovery will accelerate in coming months. But room for optimism remains limited. In June, the 12-month variation of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity stayed negati...

Chile: Cabinet Shuffle
CHILE · In Brief · 28 Jul 2020

President Sebastián Piñera announced a major cabinet shuffle today, replacing six ministers, the most important of which was the Minister of the Interior. Gonzalo Blumel, who has been seen by the hard right as too soft on the protests and, more recently, as unable to push through the government’s...

The 10% solution: fiddling with Chile's pensions
CHILE · Report · 21 Jul 2020 · 2 responses

The House of Deputies last week passed a bill that would allow some Chileans to withdraw 10% of their AFP savings. The approval of the measure, which is intended to provide further relief to those suffering from the economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis, was met with indecorous scenes of c...

AFP reform passes first major hurdle
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Jul 2020 · 1 response

The House of Deputies last night voted 95-25 (with 31 abstentions) in favor of going forward with a constitutional amendment that allows Chileans to claim up to 10% of their private pensions savings. The bill will now move on to the Deputies’ Constitution Committee, and then on to the Senate, but...

The incommensurable cost of COVID-19
CHILE · Report · 23 Jun 2020

COVID-19 caused a historic drop in the March Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC). The 12-month variation was -14.1%, below the consensus projection of -11%. April’s IMACEC is the worst in the history of the series. Retail sales took a historic hit in April, while the drop in industrial pr...

Chile Covid Response: Mañalich Out, Stimulus Agreement In.
CHILE · In Brief · 15 Jun 2020

After a fairly reasonable start, Chile is now one of the world’s most affected countries by Covid-19. Chile is now number three in the world for new cases of coronavirus, and number six in cases per million. The mishandling of the pandemic has now cost Health Minister Jamie Mañalich his job. Pres...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series featuring Igal Magendzo and Robert Funk: From protest to pandemic
CHILE · Report · 15 May 2020

Igal Magendzo and Robert Funk discuss the impact of the coronavirus crisis on Chile’s macro and political situation.

COVID in action
CHILE · Report · 14 May 2020

Due to the early social isolation measures, and helped by a bit of panic, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) contracted by 3.5% in the 12 months to March. Moreover, in March the seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC declined by 6.1% m/m. March retail sales, the first to capture the e...

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