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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China decoupling and “Altasia”
CHINA · Report · 30 Mar 2023

The economy was still on a recovery track in January-February, but a slow one. Industrial output rose 2.4% y/y, up 1.1 pps from December 2022. The seasonally adjusted m/m growth rate was weak. Investment rose 5.5% y/y, up 0.4 pps from last year, driven mainly by infrastructure investment with a g...

Treat recovery data with caution
CHINA · Report · 28 Feb 2023

Because of Chinese New Year, the statistics bureau didn’t announce price, financial and PMI data until February. China switched from zero-COVID lockdown to almost no restrictions in December 2022, and by January 2023, normal life had nearly returned. The economy is generally improving, but cautio...

Pandemic factor finally lessening
CHINA · Report · 08 Feb 2023

The economy grew 2.9% y/y in Q4 2022, down from the 3.9% growth reported in Q3, and GDP grew 3% in 2022. A number of negative factors affected the economy in 2022, including global macroeconomic tightening, the Ukraine crisis, real estate restructuring and the pandemic management policies. In thi...

Back on track in 2023
CHINA · Report · 30 Jan 2023

GDP grew 3% in 2022. Specifically, China’s economy rose by 2.9% y/y in Q4 2022, down from the 3.9% growth reported in Q3. Many negative factors affected the economy in 2022, including global macroeconomic tightening, the Ukraine crisis, real estate restructuring, the pandemic management policies ...

The shock of lifting COVID restrictions will be counteracted
CHINA · Report · 30 Dec 2022

In early December, China abandoned the zero-COVID policy restrictions it had maintained for nearly three years. This move was followed by a rapid increase in the number of infections all over the country. There are still challenges ahead, but we believe the economy should return to normal growth ...

Recovery again constrained by COVID
CHINA · Report · 25 Nov 2022

Growth is weakly recovering, with pressure ahead largely due to COVID prevention measures and related lockdowns. Although rumors have suggested that the zero-COVID policy could be abandoned, there were also signs that China would commit to this policy in the short term, citing reasons in state me...

Major growth pressure looms
CHINA · Forecast · 04 Nov 2022

Growth is slowly recovering, but pressure looms. In Q3, GDP rose 3.9% y/y, up 3.5 pps from Q2, mainly driven by infrastructure investment. Industrial output grew 4.8% y/y in Q3, up 4.1 pps from Q2. Investment rose 5.9%, up 0.1 pps from January to August, and has been rising for two consecutiv...

Growth is slowly recovering
CHINA · Report · 31 Oct 2022

Growth is slowly recovering, but pressure looms. In Q3, GDP rose 3.9% y/y, up 3.5 pps from Q2, mainly increased by infrastructure investment. Industrial output grew 4.8% y/y in Q3, up 4.1 pps from Q2. In particular, it rose 6.3% y/y in September, up 2.1 pps from August, leading the first three qu...

Recovery slows amid weakening global economy
CHINA · Report · 29 Sep 2022

Growth strengthened, but only slightly. In August, industrial output rose 4.2% y/y, up 0.4 pps, lifting overall January-August growth to 3.6%, up 0.1 pps. Investment rose 5.8% y/y in January-August, up 0.1 pps. The August growth rate was 6.4% y/y, up 2.8 pps. Real estate investment growth rate fe...

Real estate cooling drags economic recovery
CHINA · Report · 22 Aug 2022

Industrial output grew 3.5% y/y in January-July, up 0.1 pps from H1. In January-July, investment rose 5.7% y/y, down 0.4 pps from H1. In particular, the investment growth rate in July was down 2.4 pps from June. High infrastructure investment has been flattened by reduced real estate investment. ...

Rebound and resilience
CHINA · Forecast · 29 Jul 2022

With China still recovering from its lockdowns, GDP grew only 2.5% y/y in H1. A rebound in June lifted Q2 growth to 0.4% y/y. Industrial output rose 3.4% y/y in H1, down 3.1 pps from Q1. Investment growth was 6.1% y/y in H1, down 3.2 pps from Q1, but still 1.2 pps faster than in 2021. Retail sale...

Recovering from the lockdowns
CHINA · Report · 25 Jul 2022

GDP grew only 2.5% y/y in H1, but is recovering from the lockdowns. As the pandemic shock has come gradually under control, and with the start of various economic stabilization policies, the recovery of growth in June has lifted Q2 growth to achieve positive growth of 0.4% y/y, contributing to a ...

Recovering from Omicron
CHINA · Report · 24 Jun 2022

The pandemic situation in China came gradually under control in May, particularly in Shanghai. This has greatly helped economic recovery. Industrial output grew 0.7% y/y in May, up 3.6 pps from April. Manufacturing rose 0.1% y/y, up 4.7 pps from April, and has been the major force lifting aggrega...

Yuan may remain in the 6.7-7 zone
CHINA · Report · 25 May 2022

The Shanghai lockdown is dragging down all the major growth indicators. In April, industrial output fell -2.9% y/y, and its growth rate in January-April decreased to 4% y/y, down 7.9 pps, and 2.5 pps from March. Industrial output in Shanghai and Northeastern China, major lockdown areas, was parti...

Fiscal expansion is counteracting lockdowns
CHINA · Report · 06 May 2022

Lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities since March have interfered with robust economic recovery. GDP rose 4.8% y/y in Q1, up 0.8 pps from Q4 2021, but 0.2 pps lower than in Q1 2021. Industrial output rose 6.5% in Q1, up 2.6 pps from Q4, but down 1 pps from January-February. Investment rose 9.3% ...

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