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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Lockdown halts powerful economic recovery
CHINA · Report · 29 Apr 2022

The COVID-19 lockdowns in Shanghai and some other cities since late March have halted the strong economic recovery. In Q1, GDP was up 4.8% y/y, up 0.8 pps from Q4 2021, but 0.2 pps lower than in Q1 2020. Industrial output rose 6.5% in Q1, up 2.6 ppts from Q4, but down 1 pps from January-February....

Long-term RMB trend remains stable
CHINA · Report · 28 Mar 2022

Economic recovery has been relatively strong, thanks largely to export and fiscal policy support. In January-February, industrial output rose 7.5% y/y, up 3.2 pps from December 2021. Investment was up 12.2% y/y, up 7.3 pps from 2021. Real estate investment increased 3.7%, having stopped its previ...

Signs of monetary and fiscal expansion at last
CHINA · Report · 28 Feb 2022

Because of the long Chinese New Year holiday, the statistics bureau only announced price, financial and PMI data in February. Producer prices grew more slowly. PPI rose 9.1% y/y, down another 1.2 pps from December. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods rose 8.85% y/y, while CPI growth a...

Looser monetary policy plus investment will bring stability
CHINA · Report · 07 Feb 2022

GDP rose 8.1% y/y in 2021, up 10.6% from 2019. But industrial growth declined across quarters, indicating further growth pressure, especially when Omicron outbreaks are leading to frequent lockdowns in cities. Investment grew only 4.9%, far less than in normal years. Consumption is weak. Socia...

GDP likely to grow by about 5% in 2022
CHINA · Report · 26 Jan 2022

GDP rose 8.1% y/y in 2021, and increased 10.6% from 2019. Growth rates across quarters in 2021 were similar, and growth was only slightly higher in Q2. But industrial growth declined. This indicates further growth pressure, especially when Omicron outbreaks are leading to frequent city closures, ...

Yuan may appreciate further in 2022, but not hit 6 to the dollar
CHINA · Report · 22 Dec 2021

Growth continues to be weak. In November, industrial output grew 3.8% y/y, down 1.1 pps from Q3, much lower than the growth rates of recent years. Investment is also low, and was up 7.9% y/y, and down 1.2 pps from January-June. Its adjusted growth rate is instead negative. The real estate market ...

Real estate further cooling the economy
CHINA · Report · 29 Nov 2021

The Chinese economy faced more downward pressure in October. Industrial output was up 3.5% y/y, down 1.4 pps from Q3. Investment was also weak, with investment growth falling to 8% y/y in the January-October period. The adjusted monthly growth rate should be negative for September and October. ...

Growth slowing, with electricity under rationing
CHINA · Forecast · 05 Nov 2021

Growth has slowed, with real estate investment cooling dramatically. In Q3, GDP was up 4.9% y/y, the same rate as in Q3 2020, and lower than in Q2 2021. Industrial output in Q3 fell dramatically, rising 4.9% y/y, down 0.9 pps from Q3 2020, and up 2.1% y/y in September. Investment was up 7.3% y...

Growth falls amid global energy crisis
CHINA · Report · 28 Oct 2021

Growth slowed, with real estate investment cooling dramatically. In Q3, GDP rose 4.9% y/y, the same rate as in Q3 2020, and lower than in Q2 2021. Industrial output in Q3 rose 4.9% y/y, down 0.9 pps from Q3 2020, and was up 2.1% y/y in September -- a major fall. Investment was up 7.3% y/y, wit...

Growth weakens, though more structural reforms are underway
CHINA · Report · 24 Sep 2021

Growth has weakened, especially in services. In August, industrial output grew 5.3% y/y, and was up 11.2% from August 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 5.4%, down 0.2 ppts from July, and down 1.2 ppts from Q2. The service production index has slowed since Q2, and grew only 4.8% y/y in Augus...

Delta variant interrupts economic performance
CHINA · Report · 24 Aug 2021

COVID’s Delta variant and extreme weather have been hitting the economy for the past month, but their effects will be temporary. Industrial output was up 6.4% y/y in July, and up 11.5% from July 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 5.6% y/y, down 1 ppts from Q2 2021. Investment was up 10.3% y/...

Growth may be slower
CHINA · Report · 27 Jul 2021

The Chinese economy has been stably rising in Q2. GDP was up 7.9% y/y, and up 11.4% from Q2 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 5.5%, up 0.5 pps from Q1. Industrial output was up 8.9% y/y, and up 13.7% from Q2 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 6.6% y/y, slightly lower than in Q1 but hig...

Stronger yuan against a weak dollar
CHINA · Report · 23 Jun 2021

Growth was stable in May. Industrial output rose 8.8% y/y, and increased 13.6% from May 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 6.6%. Investment rose 15.4% y/y, and increased 8.5% from May 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 4.2% y/y -- still in a low growth zone. Consumption has recovered...

Robust growth without monetary loosening
CHINA · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Growth is stable. Industrial output was up 9.8% y/y in April, and up 14.1% y/y from April 2019, with annualized growth of 6.8% y/y, the same as in Q1, and higher than the pre-pandemic levels in 2018 and 2019. Investment is still weak, and rose 8% y/y from April 2019, with an annualized growth rat...

Trade strengthens
CHINA · Forecast · 07 May 2021

Growth is strong, weak investment notwithstanding. In Q1 2021, industrial output was up 14% y/y from Q1 2019, with annualized growth of 6.8%, slightly lower than in Q4 2020. In Q1, investment rose 25.6% y/y, and increased only 5.4% from Q1 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 2.6%, much lower...

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