Country Insights

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Trade strengthens
CHINA - Forecast 07 May 2021
Growth is strong, weak investment notwithstanding. In Q1 2021, industrial output was up 14% y/y from Q1 2019, with annualized growth of 6.8%, slightly lower than in Q4 2020. In Q1, investment rose 25.6% y/y, and increased only 5.4% from Q1 2019, with an annualized growth rate of 2.6%, much lower...

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Imports rally
CHINA - Report 27 Apr 2021
GDP was up 18.3% y/y in Q1, and up 10.3% from Q1 2019, with an annualized growth rate of around 5%. In this report, we mostly use Q1 2019 as the benchmark period, because the major shock from the pandemic in February 2020 makes Q1 2020 data hardly comparable. The adjusted growth rate was lower th...

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Consumption set to rebound
CHINA - Report 24 Mar 2021
Economic recovery is still going strong. In January-February, industrial output was up 35.1% y/y, and up 16.9% compared to January-February 2019. Annualized growth was 8.1% y/y, higher than all quarterly growth since 2015, and up 1 pps from Q4 2020. Since the Chinese economy was shut down to a la...

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Economic resilience will stoke export growth
CHINA - Report 25 Feb 2021
Because of the long Chinese New Year holiday, the statistics bureau, as is typical in January, only announced price, financial and PMI data. Producer prices increased fast between June 2020 and January 2021, and finally turned positive. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods rose 1% m/...

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GDP set to grow more than 7% in 2021
CHINA - Forecast 05 Feb 2021
We forecast Chinese GDP to rise 7% in 2021, less than our peers’ forecasts of around 8%. Our forecast is based on the global economic uncertainty brought on by the pandemic, and the significant chance that China will take countercyclical measures to address structural reforms. GDP climbed 2.3% y/...

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Yuan faces further appreciation pressure
CHINA - Report 28 Jan 2021
Chinese GDP rose 2.3% y/y in 2020. The slower growth mainly occurred in Q1 and Q2. Growth rose to 4.9% y/y in Q3, and 6.5% y/y in Q4, reaching the normal levels. Industrial output saw a similar GDP trend, and grew 2.8% y/y from 2019. Specifically, output rose 7.1% y/y in Q4, up 1.2 pps from Q4 20...

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Exports are surging
CHINA - Report 24 Dec 2020
Growth continues to be strong. Industrial output rose 7% y/y in November, reaching its fastest growth rate since April. Investment rose 2.6% y/y, and was up 0.8 pps from October. Consumption was the worst-hit macro variable of the pandemic. But retail sales of social consumption goods recovered ...

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RCEP the largest free-trade deal in history
CHINA - Report 26 Nov 2020
Growth is strong. In October, industrial output rose 6.9% y/y, the same rate as in September, and the highest rate this year, up 2.2 pps from October 2019. The national service production index has been rising since the economic opening in February, and achieved positive growth in May. It rose 7....

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A robust recovery
CHINA - Forecast 06 Nov 2020
The stock market, FDI and foreign reserves have all returned to pre-pandemic levels, while the fiscal budget deficit has expanded further. Fiscal revenue fell -6.4% y/y in Q3, and expenditure was down -1.9% y/y. Despite the global pandemic, and the still ongoing U.S.-China trade war, exports a...

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4.9% Q3 growth, with surging exports
CHINA - Report 28 Oct 2020
GDP was up 4.9% y/y in Q3, a rise of 1.7 pps from Q2, but still 1.1 pps lower than in Q3 2019. Industrial output was up 5.8% y/y in Q3, up 1.4 pps from Q2, and up 0.8 pps from Q3 2019. Investment was up 8.8% y/y, up 5 pps from Q2, and up 4.1 pps from Q3 2019, with investment in manufacturing ...

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Recovery reaches pre-pandemic level
CHINA - Report 24 Sep 2020
Industrial output was up 5.6% y/y, up 0.8 pps from July, reaching the average growth rate of 2019. We expect growth might slightly exceed the pre-pandemic level for the rest of the year. Investment fell -0.3% y/y January-August, up 1.3 pps from previous months. The driving force is switching from...

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Recovery slows, but continues
CHINA - Report 24 Aug 2020
Industrial output rose 4.8% y/y in July, the same rate as in June, down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment grew 8.3% y/y, up 2.7 pps from June, and up 2.9 pps from Q4, and is still mainly driven by state investment, with a growth rate of 12.7% y/y. The best performer among fixed asset investments i...

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Growth forecast at 1.8% this year
CHINA - Forecast 29 Jul 2020
GDP turned in a remarkable performance amid global pandemic, rising 3.2% y/y in Q2. Industrial output was up 4.8% y/y in June, and up 0.4 pps from May, though the growth rate has still not reached its pre-pandemic level, and was down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment, mostly driven by state invest...

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Strong rebound, even without a major stimulus
CHINA - Report 26 Jul 2020
GDP rose 3.2% y/y in Q2 -- a remarkable performance amid global pandemic. In June, industrial output was up 4.8% y/y, and up 0.4 pps from May, though has still not reached the pre-pandemic level, and was down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment, mostly driven by state investment, was up 5.6% y/y, u...

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COVID 2nd wave lowers our growth forecast
CHINA - Report 25 Jun 2020
Industrial output rose 4.4% y/y in May, up 0.5 pps from April, comparable to its pre-pandemic level, and was down just 1.5 pps from Q4 2019. Investment was up 3.9% y/y, and up 3.1 pps from April, down 1.5 pps from Q4. Government investment is the main force lifting overall investment growth. ...