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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

An opportunity for President Lasso to reinvent himself
ECUADOR · Report · 17 May 2022

The various unsuccessful attempts to reach agreements with the Assembly are not President Lasso's only headaches. Several massacres in the jail system that have caused the deaths of over 350 inmates since 2021, and violence and insecurity on the streets – especially in Guayaquil, which now has th...

A cornered government
ECUADOR · Forecast · 22 Apr 2022

The good news of the higher-than-expected GDP growth of 4.2% y/y, which clearly speaks of a robust (albeit jobless) economic recovery in 2021, came amidst the dense political turmoil caused by dubious legislative processes, another massacre in the jail system, the discovery of a Ponzi scheme amon...

Lower popularity does not make a hard job any easier
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Mar 2022

It seems like a long time ago that President Lasso enjoyed his highest levels of popularity, when over 70% of Ecuadorians approved of his performance, back in August 2021. By the end of January, his popularity had fallen below 40%. In this context Lasso is facing strong opposition outside and ins...

Legislative decisions that are beyond controversial
ECUADOR · In Brief · 14 Mar 2022

Last Thursday, the Assembly voted in favor of granting amnesty to all of those prosecuted for violent acts of public property destruction carried out during the riots of October 2019. Albeit some of the cases could fall within the category of political persecution, there is no doubt according to ...

Conspiracy is in the air
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Feb 2022

More than one political analyst and/or well-informed journalist is talking about the evident intent of UNES, Social Christians and the nine dissident members of Pachakutik to take over the Assembly, appointing new authorities and destabilizing the government of President Lasso, as well. As twe...

President Lasso carries an important agenda to China
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jan 2022

Thanks to the fragmentation and disagreements among legislators, it proved easier for the government to raise taxes than to reduce significantly public expenditures in 2021. Even so, $1000 million of additional tax collection and $2,000 million in higher oil revenue, together with a reduction of ...

The political winds blow hot and cold for President Lasso
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Dec 2021

The Comptroller General exonerated President Lasso from any involvement in the Pandora papers. In this context, the case was archived, and the dark clouds of a possible impeachment blew away. But the relationship with the Assembly is still complicated and even more uncertain than at the beginn...

The Tax Reform passed under the authority of the law
ECUADOR · In Brief · 29 Nov 2021

Ironically, it was the UNES party that allowed the tax reform to become an effective bill, to be applied next January. The bill passed by the authority of the law without changes since legislators could not reach an agreement either for its approval, its rejection or its archival. Legislators who...

Tax reform approval still not secured
ECUADOR · In Brief · 25 Nov 2021

After an incomplete second debate of the tax reform, the government still does not have the necessary 70 votes for its approval. Pachakutik (27 votes), Izquierda Democratica (17 votes), BAN (25 votes) could approve the tax reform if their suggested modifications are taken into consideration.And e...

Ecuador: Open for business
ECUADOR · Forecast · 19 Nov 2021

Around 300 business national and international business people gathered last Thursday to learn about the investment opportunities in Ecuador, that according to President Lasso sum $30b over four years. Areas where the Republic has the most important portfolio of projects are hydrocarbons, mining...

A full political agenda for the coming weeks
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Nov 2021

President Lasso continues his official tour through Europe, where he attended the 26th UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow and is currently presenting the Ecuadorian investment portfolio to government officers and private businessmen in Spain. In the meanwhile, the Commission of Constitutiona...

A trapped president
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Oct 2021

President Lasso is trapped in a power battle with the Assembly, which is the omen of a lose-lose situation unless both sides seek ways to lower the political heat. Ever since the CAL rejected the mega-bill project, conflict between the parties has escalated, with mutual accusations. Finally, Lass...

Solomonic decisions ahead
ECUADOR · In Brief · 30 Sep 2021

As we expected, five of the seven members of the Administrative Committee from the Assembly (CAL) rejected the bill Creating Opportunities submitted personally by president Guillermo Lasso for the legislators’ approval. They justified their decision alleging the project referred to multiple topic...

The clock is ticking
ECUADOR · In Brief · 23 Sep 2021

Guillermo Lasso will personally present the labor and tax reforms together with other bills to the assembly on Friday, September 24, after socializing their main contents tonight. The government has decided to send these bills together as one economically urgent law. In this fashion, the Assembly...

Webinar Replay: Rethinking Ecuador: Is now the time?
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Sep 2021

Visit our calendar page to watch Magdalena Barreiro discuss how ​ a new IMF program, higher commodities prices, and a centrist president appear to have Ecuador positioned for a comeback, and the risks and opportunities in the country’s current macro and political environment.

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