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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Growth and Budget Strengthen, But Debt and Bank Worries Rise
HUNGARY · Forecast · 15 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The key economic issues for Hungary are the momentum of recovery, the fiscal situation, the inflation trajectory and the consequences of government initiatives on banking, reserves, the currency and interest rates. Compared with our April forecast, we expect faster growth, a low...

MPC Pendulum Swaying Towards a Rate Hike
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Jul 2014

The outlook on South Africa’s consumer price inflation has deteriorated more than the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) had anticipated. Meanwhile, South Africa’s economic growth outlook has suffered and continues to do so as a result of, inter alia, labor-related production stoppages. Despite th...

More Signals of Falling Industrial Production
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jul 2014

Although the unemployment rate remains at a historically low level, the job market is clearly weakening. Net hiring has been virtually stagnant and the jobless rate only has been holding steady because of the decline in the participation rate, which annuls the growth of the labor force (economica...

How Far can the Central Bank go to Secure the Exchange Rate?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jul 2014

Executive Summary In situations where the exchange rate is near equilibrium (the current account deficits are being financed by capital inflows not artificially stimulated), but is highly volatile, interventions in the foreign exchange market are perfectly acceptable. They dampen the volatilit...

Political Insights: Week of July 14
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2014

A busy week in Congress: The House could vote on the Provisional Measure (MP) that deals with the commercialization of electric energy and changes in taxation for the beverage sector.Congress may also analyze the bill to revoke the decree creating the National Social Participation Policy. The end...

Indonesia’s Presidential Election: Waiting for the Final Verdict
INDONESIA · In Brief · 13 Jul 2014

The Indonesian Presidential Election was successfully done on July 9, 2014. There was no report of any major incidents related to the election. Even though the tension was very high during the campaigning period, yet there was no report of any horizontal conflicts between the supporters of the tw...

Weekly Tracker: July 13-19
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The presidential race witnessed the rapid rise of HDP candidate Mr. Demirtas to the status of left-wing favorite, as Erdogan and Ihsanoglu not only put forth opposing visions, but campaign strategies as well.After all that has been said and done, with one exception, polls point ...

Clashes at the Russian Border Become Tougher
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Jul 2014

Over the last few days clashes at the border with Russia became really tough. After surrender of Slovyansk, the city which Moscow propaganda made a symbol of ‘rebel’, Kremlin intensified its activity in this undeclared war. Ukrainian army is trying to encircle the region and to close the border. ...

The Indian budget speech
INDIA · In Brief · 10 Jul 2014 · 1 response

The speech is a disappointment. It sounds much like the budget speeches of the last 10 years: A lot of focus on trivial and small actions that pursue one narrow target group after another. There was little evidence of the big thinking that's required. It reiterates the problem of the BJP: they wo...

Mexico's Telecom Reform produces results earlier than expected
MEXICO · In Brief · 09 Jul 2014

Last week telecom’s secondary laws were approved in the Senate. Today as the Lower House passed the new legislation, with no major changes, América Móvil (AMX), announced they’ll divest some assets in order to avoid the sanctions of being a dominant telecommunications player, as was established b...

Economic strategy thinking at the Ministry of Finance
INDIA · In Brief · 09 Jul 2014

Just before the budget, they have released an important document that gives a good big picture about economic reforms in India: http://indiabudget.nic.in/es2013-14/echap-02.pdf

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jul 2014

The effects of the German massacre on the elections The scenario of a Brazilian defeat in the World Cup had been considered.Despite the fact that Brazil always plays with an obligation to win, everybody knows that the game must be played and that only one team wins the Cup.However, a scenario in ...

The Economic Strategy of the Modi Government
INDIA · Report · 08 Jul 2014

The Economic Survey and the Budget Speech of the next two days are a crucial milestone for the Modi administration. Contrary to the claims made during the campaign, there is little sign of a plan, a team or a coherent strategy for economic policy. The Budget speech is unlikely to rival July 1991 ...

Public Disconnect on Structural Reform
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Now that the last major obstacle to a resumption of the reform process has been cleared – all but two states have made changes to the electoral laws necessary for them to comply with those adopted on the federal level – Congress has quickly begun to address bills regarding the t...

Buying Power Up, but Sales Flat
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jul 2014

Executive Summary During the first six months of 2014 we have witnessed a recovery in the main determinants of private consumption, but so far it has failed to help accelerate growth in sales. The flow of workers actively paying into the social security system through the first five months of 201...

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