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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Erdogan admits meddling with judiciary, tender results
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Mar 2014 · 2 responses

I’m writing this note with a slack jaw and in a state of utter surprise. PM Erdogan admitted that he did instruct his former Justice Minister to lobby the High Court of Appeals to approve the verdict against Dogan Group chairman Aydin Dogan—he was later acquitted by the High Court. In a meeting w...

Putin’s retreat: is everything over?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Mar 2014

Abkhazian scenario did not work with Ukraine. None believes in ‘evil Ukrainians’, no evidences of nationalists threatening Russians. At the same time, all media report that ‘unidentified’ gunmen are Russian soldiers – some soldiers even confirmed this fact openly to media. Against this backdrop t...

A Muddled Outlook
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Economic indicators published over the course of February were mixed. Consumers and producers alike grew increasingly pessimistic through January, at least in part owing to higher taxes that took effect that month and which also helped to lower sales at supermarkets and departme...

March Madness
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2014

Executive Summary March Madness took start with daily releases of audio recordings suggesting that Erdogan and his family are taking bribes. The tensions will escalate through the month, though we have very little evidence to measure how much the voter sentiment is affected. AKP should win by a 4...

Headline OK, Details Not…
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2014

February CPI inflation came in at 0.4%, which meant a very slight increase in the 12-month rate to just below 8% from 7.8% a month earlier (Table 1; Graph 1). This is broadly in line with expectations and slightly lower than ours. But the underlying details are rather worrying. First, we had this...

Actions review: nerve wracking play
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2014

Though Putin already was granted permission to act officially, real military actions did not start yet. Russian troops keep teasing Ukrainian forces in Crimea trying to provoke more aggression. In particular, through the day Russian soldiers have been entertaining themselves by taking into besieg...

Weekly Tracker: March 2-8
TURKEY · Report · 02 Mar 2014

Executive Summary The Politics Author wishes to announce that he has changed his base-case scenario. He now expects political uncertainty to linger until the presidential elections in August. The trade deficit began to narrow in 12-month rolling terms in January, which should deepen in the coming...

It’s a war
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Mar 2014

Putin requested permission of the parliament to start military intervention. Effectively, this statement is equivalent to official announcement of war to Ukraine. Currently, we observe simultaneous large-scale destabilization at the southeast. In many cities pro-Russian forces organized large and...

Crimean situation review: Putin’s provocations did not work so far
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2014

Moscow is trying to launch Abkhazian scenario for Ukraine. After victory of Maidan it is critical for Vladimir Putin to take some revenge on Ukraine. Annexation of Crimea looks like his choice for revenge. Disposition in Crimea is very good for this plan: Russian-speaking population, Russian mili...

GUATEMALA: Moderate Growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryThe outlook for the Guatemalan economy 2014-2015 is similar to that of 2013. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.5%-4.0%; inflation will be within the 4% ± 1 p.p. of the Central Bank’s target range; and the exchange rate will stay at 7.90-8.10 quetzals per dollar. Interest rates wi...

Try Again
PERU · Report · 28 Feb 2014

Executive Summary President Ollanta Humala quickly lost the popularity rally he enjoyed in the wake of the favorable Hague ruling on Peru’s maritime border with Chile, after the government mismanaged the PR aspect of a 100% salary hike for top government officials. Humala’s rating tumbled back to...

The Performance of GDP in the Fourth Quarter of 2013
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Feb 2014

The GDP growth of 0.7% in the last quarter of 2013 (Graph 1) came as a surprise: it was above the most optimistic projections. In contrast, GDP contracted in the third quarter by 0.5%. With this, growth in 2013 reached 2.3%. The main surprise was gross fixed capital formation, which instead of th...

Housing Market: Bumpy Ride
CHINA · Report · 28 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Exports and imports both grew faster, up 10.6% and 10% y/y respectively in January. Almost all increases came from commodity trade. We expect the relatively high growth rate in trade to persist, and even to speed up -- especially after May. CPI rose 2.5% y/y in January, fl...

Fiscal Reforms for the Next Government …and the Canal Expansion Project is on Again…
PANAMA · Report · 28 Feb 2014

ACP announced that it had just reached a “conceptual agreement” with GUPC, the main contractor for the Panama Canal expansion project. The key elements of this new accord released on February 28th (for which the final wording is still pending) include five main conditions. The first one (importan...

Good and bad of the fiscal certainty agreement
MEXICO · In Brief · 28 Feb 2014

Today,after a meeting of a special government Committee for a “Prosperous Mexico”, specialized in economic policy and formed by different government ministries, the Secretary of Finance, Luis Videgaray, announced a “Tax Certainty Agreement”. This agreement pursues several goals. Amongst them, the...

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