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Unsettling politics, flagging economy
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2025 · 1 response

The battle of wills between President Erdogan and the main opposition CHP reached a crescendo last week, with courts ordering the arrest of 100 suspects on charges of graft, 5 of the suspects being CHP borough and township mayors. There are credible rumors that another court will rule the prev...

Moody's affirmed their Baa2/Negative sovereign rating to Hungary on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jun 2025

This means that the government has escaped a downgrading from a key rating agency for now. But the negative outlook was maintained, and Moody's will review their rating again no later than November 28. The next review by a top-3 agency is due in a week's time, by Fitch Ratings, currently rating H...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco issues bonds, Oman records Q1 deficit, Fitch expects mild Dubai property correction
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 May 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $62 amidst reports that OPEC+ could boost July output by more than 0.4m b/d. * Trump said Iran talks are going well and warned Israel not to strike. There could be an interim deal. * Saudi Arabia conducted a...

Domestic demand shrinks in Q1
TURKEY · Report · 30 May 2025

The Turkish economy grew by 1% in the first quarter of the year, sequentially, which was notably less than expected (around 1.5%), while annual growth was 2.0%, y/y (Graph 1). The expenditure composition of growth is starkly different in annual vs. sequential (quarter-on-quarter) data, with domes...

Growth in industry to remain slow in 2025 despite some improvements in April
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 May 2025

After an abrupt slowdown of industrial growth in 1Q25 (1.1% up y-o-y that followed a 5.7% y-o-y increase in 4Q24 and 4.6% in 2024 as a whole), April statistics looked somewhat better, albeit marginally. In 4M25, industrial output grew by 1.5% y-o-y, which pulled the 4M25 tally to 1.2% y-o-y. Seas...

May CCA highlights: Armenia and Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, Tajikistan cuts rates, Uzbekistan's FX reserve reach record-highs, Azerbaijan's CPI breaches CPI target range
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 May 2025

I briefly touch on the key macro and political events in the CCA in May: Armenia: GDP expands by 5.2% YoY in 1Q25 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator increases by 5.4% YoY in Apr Armenia: Amulsar mine launch may have positive impact on GDP growth of about 0.5% Armenia: Central Bank keeps po...

The Finance Ministry may revise the IOF tax increase due to backlash, the STF begins adjudication of three important cases, and next week will be the XI BRICS Parliamentary Forum
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2025

After the negative backlash to the decree that raised the IOF on credit and foreign exchange operations, the Ministry of Finance may revise certain aspects of the measure. The goal is to address the R$ 800 billion in tax waivers granted by the government. Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) be...

Haddad met with congressional leaders to discuss the IOF tax increase, the Senate approved the bill that grants a salary increase to federal servants, and the Senate also approved advertising restrictions on “bets”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 May 2025

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad met yesterday with the President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta, the President of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, and party leaders. Despite pressure from Congress, according to Haddad, there is no alternative to the IOF decree at this time. On Wednesday, May 28, the...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 May 2025

May 15 Tengizchevroil: The company increased oil production by 25% y-o-y in 1Q25. Oil transportation: The volume of oil transportation via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline decreased in 4M25 by 3% y-o-y Sanctions: The US has lifted a ban on previously imposed restrictions to provide services to CP...

Silent concessions
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2025

The exchange of concessions between the U.S. and Venezuelan governments signals a pragmatic understanding that prioritizes immediate mutual interests. Maduro seeks to consolidate his grip on power, while Trump (via Grenell) aims to secure gains on deportations and limit Chinese influence over Ven...

Congressional pressure to overturn Lula’s IOF decree continues to mount, the STF will hear a case on the CIDE tax on money transfers abroad, and the Senate may vote on a bill that increases federal salaries
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2025

In Congress, pressure continues to mount to overturn President Lula’s decree raising the IOF tax. The agribusiness caucus is working in coordination with other parliamentary fronts to approve a legislative decree nullifying the tax hike. Pressure on public finances is also coming from the Judicia...

Slowdown and remittance fears
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 May 2025

Costa Rica’s economy is entering a clear slowdown phase, after two years of strong post-pandemic momentum. GDP growth decelerated to 3.9% y/y in Q1 2025, driven by a sharp weakening in the domestic (definitive) regime, which accounts for the bulk of national output. While free trade zone activity...

Sanctions on Venezuela become tighter and more opaque
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 May 2025

There will be no General License 41c. We infer that Chevron is now operating under private licenses, out of public view. The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) did not issue a general license clarifying the conditions for Chevron's continued presence in the country after the ex...

Will China's economy and technology surpass the U.S.?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 May 2025

There is a growing view that China’s economy and technology will soon surpass that of the U.S. Kyle Chan, a researcher at Princeton University, outlined this argument in a New York Times op-ed: “For years, theorists have posited the onset of a 'Chinese century': a world in which China finally ...

No policy change at today's Monetary Council, as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 May 2025

The base rate remains at 6.5%, and the interest rate corridor has also been left at 5.5-7.5%. The Council expect headline CPI-inflation close to (meaning not a lot above) the target range. They continue to aim at maintaining the stability of financial markets (in our reading this primarily means ...

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