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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GULF WEEKLY: Neom reviews The Line, Qatar Q2 deficit, Kuwait exits 2-year recession, Bahrain signs $17bn in US deals
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Jul 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi oil production rose by 0.6m b/d in June, but only a third of this was supplied to the market. * Saudi Arabia’s local T-sukuk could get a 5.5% weight in the JPM GBI-EM index. * Neom may cut a fifth of its workforce a...

Israel’s political crisis and its fiscal implications for 2025–2026
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Jul 2025

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government lost its parliamentary majority this week, after the two ultra-Orthodox parties—Shas and United Torah Judaism—announced their resignation from the government. The move came after the coalition failed to submit a draft law that would exempt most ultra-Orthodox...

Congress recesses today and should return the week of August 4, Lula gave a nationally broadcast speech last night addressing Trump’s tariffs, and a recent poll shows the tariff episode has had a positive impact on Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2025

Today marks the start of the National Congress’s recess. Legislative activities will resume during the week of August 4. Yesterday, President Lula delivered a nationally televised and broadcast speech addressing the U.S. government's decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports. He said t...

Special report: Moscow-Baku diplomatic row in perspective—destabilization of the South Caucasus?
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 18 Jul 2025

- Russian police launched raids on the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia, citing its involvement in organized crime. - Azerbaijan retaliated by arresting and beating Russian nationals and closing Russian media outlets. - Aliyev maintains a stable equilibrium in his country's relatio...

Low growth persists; monetary policy responds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 17 Jul 2025

The most recent data confirms that low growth is consolidating for 2025. The Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE) for May showed y/y growth of 3.1%, and cumulative growth for January–May stood at 2.6%. Lower rates can be observed across most sectors, and are particularly noticeable in co...

Justice Moraes reinstated the decree that raised the IOF tax rate on credit operations, Lula vetoed the bill that would have increased the number of congressmen, and Lula will address Trump’s tariff hike tonight
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2025

Yesterday, Justice Alexandre de Moraes reinstated the decree that raised the IOF tax rate on credit operations. After a conciliation hearing failed to reach consensus, he ruled that the only valid portion of the legislative decree is the one that suspends the IOF tax on “risco sacado” (receivable...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2025

The rally on the OFZ market continued, and the yield curve approached 14% in its long end (versus 15% two or three weeks ago). The CBR published its regular survey on the current economic trends, which indicated that current inflation “in annualised terms moved close to 4%”. This statement suppor...

Israel's June CPI surprised to the upside: +0.3% m/m, 3.3% y/y - lowering chances of a near-term rate cut
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jul 2025

The June CPI surprised on the upside, rising by 0.3% month-on-month at the upper end of market expectations—and pushing annual inflation up to 3.3%, from 3.1% in May. Food and housing remained the main drivers of the increase, each rising by 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. Core services also increas...

"New" cabinet or musical chairs reshuffle?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jul 2025

The Ukrainian leadership has launched a Cabinet reshuffle. The possible replacement of former Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal had been discussed for several years, but he remained too convenient for President Volodymyr Zelensky—flexible and without any personal agenda—making him easy to keep in plac...

The STF conciliation meeting ended without agreement, the House approved the PEC on court-ordered payments yesterday, and today the Special Committee on income tax may vote on Deputy Lira’s report
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2025

The conciliation meeting between the Executive and Legislative branches, mediated by Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes, ended without agreement. Yesterday, the Lower House concluded the vote on the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) regarding court-ordered government pa...

(Kurdish) Peace Process: A little bit of Peace, a lot of Process
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2025

Most visitors come back from Bodrum with fun memories: Sun-kissed pristine beaches, endless rave parties and excessive food and alcohol consumption. Your Truly came back with food poisoning, thus skipping his contribution to our Weekly Tracker. This Market Brief is to atone for his sins, where he...

Magín Díaz appointed Minister of Finance following Jochy Vicente's resignation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 15 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Jochy Vicente has resigned as Minister of Finance of the Dominican Republic, and economist Magín Díaz has been appointed as his successor. Vicente had served in the role since August 2020, at the start of President Luis Abinader's first term. Magín Díaz has dedicated his professional career to fi...

We revise down exchange rate and inflation forecasts
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2025

We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for two main reasons: the reduction in cash transfers under the Patria system following the elimination of some benefits starting in June 2025, and our assumption that the government will seek to contain inflationary pressures by keeping mo...

Steady as she goes
CHILE · Report · 15 Jul 2025

Despite the headline boost in May’s IMACEC, the underlying momentum remains soft. The y/y figures will likely stay high into June, due to favorable base effects. IMACEC’s consumption-related sectors and retail sales point to softening consumption dynamics. This is echoed in commerce sentiment. Wi...

Is this President Boluarte’s last dance? Economy grew sluggishly in Q2; PEN/USD appreciation justifies one 25 bp rate cut in the next nine months
PERU · Report · 15 Jul 2025

In this report we offer an update on Peru’s political, economic and market developments. We first discuss politics and the likelihood of President Dina Boluarte’s facing a successful impeachment before her term ends on July 28th, 2026. Although we continue to ascribe a 45% probability to Boluarte...

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