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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Reform program – any luck this time?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Feb 2014

Parliament today approved new Cabinet with Arseniy Yatseniuk as a prime-minister. Also parliament accepted reform program of the new Cabinet. In fact the document (reform program) appeared to be a summary of key actions the authorities plan to do in the nearest future without much details. Among ...

Budgeting Under Stress
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Feb 2014

Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan presented yesterday a balanced budget despite a lack of space for fiscal maneuvers. His eye was clearly on averting another credit rating downgrade. The Minister spoke the right language in (1) containing expenditure and (2) keeping all welfare expenditure incre...

Escalation in Crimea
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Feb 2014

Some unidentified armed people captured the government and parliament building in Crimea today in the morning. There are also reports that Russian armed forces moved out of their military bases in Crimea (few dozens of Infantry Fighting Machines are reported standing near Simferopol the capital o...

Budgeting Under Stress
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 27 Feb 2014

Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan presented yesterday a balanced budget despite a lack of space for fiscal manoeuvres. His eye was clearly on averting another credit rating downgrade. The Minister spoke the right language in (1) containing expenditure and (2) keeping all welfare expenditure incr...

The Central bank will not intervene at the forex, Head of the Bank said
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Feb 2014

The Central bank will not use its gross foreign reserves to balance forex market, the Head of Central Bank Stepan Kubiv said today. It is not clear whether this statement means the Bank will move to real free float. However, it means that new head of the Bank will not resist devaluation over the ...

Yatsenyuk Nomination for Prime-Minister looks Distrubing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Feb 2014

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Batkivshchyna party, was nominated for the prime-minister post today at Maidan. A lot of new names were presented for his Cabinet. Tomorrow the parliament will be voting for this decision. In our opinion, Arseniy Yatsenyuk is not the best choice for this post. He has never been...

Economic growth in Mexico in 2014 is estimated at 3.0%
MEXICO · Report · 25 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Last week Mexican authorities reported that fourth quarter 2013 GDP grew 0.7% year over year, the second weakest quarterly performance last year. As a result, the economy grew 1.1% in full year 2013, just as we at GEA predicted in December and the weakest reading of GDP since th...

Q4 2013 GDP Recovery Fails to Lift Annual Outcome
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Feb 2014

Inflation adjusted (real) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by a quarterly, seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.8% in the last quarter of 2013. The outcome added 3.1 percentage points to the preceding quarter’s muted rate (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Quarterly Inflation-adjusted GDP growth ra...

Political Reform before Holy Week, Energy Reform in Late April
MEXICO · Report · 25 Feb 2014

Executive Summary There is some lingering uncertainty over the order in which Congress intends to handle secondary legislation related to the constitutional amendments passed last year. Those dealing with political and electoral law will be addressed first, with energy and telecommunications refo...

Optimism and Challenges
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Feb 2014

Executive Summary After two months of peaceful protests and a month of deadly attacks that left 100 protestors dead, the Yanukovych dictatorship has collapsed. The day after agreeing to limit his authority, the president fled Kyiv.But the story is far from over. Viktor Yanukovych is refusing to r...

March Madness started early
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2014

In our weekly we warned the investors: “Cosmo loves to kill a good buzz, so he warns all readers that the March Madness is about to start. March Madness is a very ugly and downright dirty campaign by all actors in Turkey to discredit and undermine their rivals using Machiavellian means to win the...

New Head of the Central bank appointed – no changes in policies anticipated
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Feb 2014

Yesterday Verkhovna Rada appointed new Head of the Central bank, Stepan Kubiv. He was a head of mid-level local commercial bank for many years. But the main reason for his appointment was his active participation in Maidan events. Bankers are optimistic about this appointment anticipating better ...

A Bath of Humility for the official Alianza Pais
ECUADOR · In Brief · 24 Feb 2014

Last Sunday 23d, Ecuadorians went to the polls for the 10th time since 2007 to elect sectional authorities. Every time, the President and his movement emerged victorious from these elections and public consultations. However, this last time is quite different. Quito, Guayaquil, and Cuenca and 16 ...

Vargas-Lleras is President Santos' vicepresidential formula for May elections
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 24 Feb 2014

President Santos has just announced that Germán Vargas-Lleras, his former minister of politics (2010-2012) and housing (2012-2013), will be his vice-presidential candidate for next May elections. Even though the announcement does not come as a surprise, it helps Mr. Santos' intentions in more way...

The Announcement of the Primary Surplus Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Feb 2014

The announcement of the primary surplus target was greeted by the market with an appreciation of the real and a downward shift of the entire yield curve – the short and long ends (Graph 1). Thus it was a positive reaction. In reality, the real was not the only emerging market currency to get stro...

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