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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political Insights: Week of February 3
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2014

Congress resumes activity today and proceeds with two priority questions on its agenda: in the House, the Internet Framework Law; and in the Senate, the renegotiation of state and municipal debt with the federal government. The February agenda for the Supreme Federal Court should see the trial on...

The Central Bank and its Difficult Mission
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2014

Emerging countries are being sharply penalized by the markets at the start of this year. The recovery of the advanced economies, especially the American, is reducing global liquidity, which is happening alongside signals of slower growth in China, accentuating the uncertainties. This cycle is the...

Something for Everyone
PERU · Report · 03 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryIn what seemed a Solomonic judgment, The Hague has solved the long-running maritime border dispute between Peru and Chile by awarding something to each. Chile was able to retain more or less intact the grounds it has been fishing for the past 50 years, while Peru has added 50,000...

We Better Get Used To It…
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2014

January CPI inflation came in at 1.7%, broadly in line with expectations on the back of high food inflation -- much above seasonal averages -- and continued lira weakness. Twelve-month CPI rate now stands at 7.5%, marginally up from 7.4%.The weak lira effect is apparent from the jump in the core ...

The Tide Is Turning
TURKEY · Report · 02 Feb 2014

It is crunch time for AKP. After an unprecedented 11-year reign with few rivals of note, the party is facing severe challenges at home and abroad in the eve of do-or-die elections. Since Gezi Parki almost everything has gone wrong for AKP, which leads us to speculate that the tide may have turned...

Central America: Costa Rica´s Central Bank reduced its inflation target range
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 31 Jan 2014

The Central Bank of Costa Rica reduced its inflation target range for 2014-2015 to 4.0% ± 1 p.p. The new target, included in the Macroeconomic Program 2014-15 approved on January 29th, is consistent with the observed decline in the inflation rate during last year (3.68% y/y as of December). The B...

Full Course Dinner
PANAMA · Report · 30 Jan 2014

According to the electoral law, candidates for the general elections must be ratified according to each political party’s bylaws three months before the May 4 event. Therefore, almost all the candidates are already in place: the menu has options for all political tastes. Fusion cuisine prevails i...

Better-than-expected GDP growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Jan 2014

At 6.5%, 4Q13 GDP growth reached the top end of the government's revised forecast, confirming its assessment of Typhoon Haiyan's limited growth impact. Apart from the overall growth rate, the good news from the 4Q GDP release include stable, albeit slower, consumption growth (5.6%), double-digit ...

Robust Growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jan 2014

Executive SummaryEl Salvador and Costa Rica have crucial presidential elections this Sunday. Both races seem headed for a runoff, since none of the candidates seem poised to gather enough votes to win in the first round. In both countries, a leftist party is a major contender -- a new situation f...

Key Leadership Choices Ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jan 2014

Executive SummaryEl Salvador and Costa Rica have crucial presidential elections this Sunday. Both races seem headed for a runoff, since none of the candidates seem poised to gather enough votes to win in the first round. In both countries, a leftist party is a major contender -- a new situation f...

The SARB Raises the Repo Rate
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Jan 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) opted today to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% per year. On the face of it, it appears that, after a protracted period of inaction, the SARB preferred this time to join the monetary policy...

The SARB Raises the Repo Rate
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Jan 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) opted today to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent a year. On the face of it, it appears that, after a protracted period of inaction, the SARB preferred this time to join the monetary ...

Dominican Rep: against all odds, 2013 fiscal deficit on target
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 29 Jan 2014

The Ministry of Finance just released final figures on the fiscal deficit for 2013. It set the deficit at DOP 70.0 bn, slightly below the level authorized by the 2013 Budget Law. This is equivalent to 2.77% of GDP. The target was 2.8% of GDP. Total spending reached DOP 442.2 bn and revenues total...

Financial Reform’s Scope and Limits
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Last week’s inflation report showed that consumer prices rose 0.68% during the first half of January, the sharpest increase for that two-week period in four years. That result pushed the National Consumer Price Index’s 12- month rate of inflation to 4.63%, the highest level sinc...

After-resignation review: risks of military conflict remain high
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jan 2014

Resignation of prime minister and cancelled dictatorship laws allowed to breathe freely to society for a while. In fact, yesterday the country stepped back from abyss. For January 28 everyone anticipated state of emergency to be voted in which under current tension would be the official start of ...

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