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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Negotiations failed. Party of war wins. Escalation is ahead.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Jan 2014

Today, Andrey Kluyev, the Head of National Security and Defense Council was appointed Head of President Office. Mr. Kluyev, according to media reports, is suspected to be the one who coordinated all crackdowns and provocations against protesters. After yesterdays’ fail of negotiations with Yanuko...

Turkey blind-sighted by Rojava Kurds
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Jan 2014

Syria’s long-suffering Rojava Kurds declared “transitional democratic autonomy” after they have been denied a separate delegation to represent them at the Geneva Peace Conference. While this development is not going to be noticed by the media or markets now, it actually poses a much more signific...

Search for Revived Productivity Growth
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The World Bank published its Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report last Wednesday, in which it estimates Mexico GDP will expand 3.4% in 2014 and that part of the expansion will be facilitated by US growth. The report adds that the global economy continues with its gradual recov...

New Year’s Policy and Political Hurdles
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jan 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This second part of our political perspectives report for 2014 will address two topics: the main challenges that the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto will face in matters that are a source of social discontent (the poor state of the economy and public security), an...

Dominican Rep: surprising figures of GDP growht for 2013 (Q4 and Q1-Q4)
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Jan 2014 · 2 responses

The Central Bank just released data of GDP growth for Q4 2013 and for the whole year. The figures are surprising and have been received with disbelief by many analysts. According to the Bank, in Q4 GDP grew at 7.2% compared to Q4 of 2012. As a result, GDP growth for 2013 was 4.1% compared to 2012...

Looking Ahead to the New Political Season
CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2014

Summer politics These are the last days of the Chilean political season, before senior politicians and their families repair to the country or the beach for the entire month of February. Before leaving for the holidays, the center-left is busy with the appointment of the new cabinet; the center-r...

Peso In A Free Fall?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 Jan 2014

The peso’s “free fall”, as one headline put it, has raised worries that the country’s external payments position, which has been a major source of resilience, may come under pressure as imports to fund reconstruction and other infrastructure needs increase this year. The latest balance of payment...

Reluctant Hiker?
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Jan 2014

The MPC did not change any of the rates today, but said that it would drive money market rates to 9% (from 7.75% currently) on additional monetary tightening (AMT) days. This, the Committee said, aims at aligning the inflation outlook with the medium term target. Our first impression is that this...

Revving Up
PANAMA · Forecast · 20 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The economy is gaining momentum, expanding 8.9% in Q3, up from 7% in Q1 and Q2 (cumulative growth of 8% through Q3, though, is still below the 10%+ of earlier years). These results are explained by a significant Q3 increase in key sectors like mining and construction, and transp...

Was the COPOM Decision Unexpected?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2014

The expression most heard just after the decision at the last COPOM meeting to raise the SELIC rate by 50 basis points, and extending the cycle of the rate increase, was that it was a “surprise”. For those only looking at the fact that “official” inflation was below the upper bound of the target ...

Weekly Tracker: January 19-25
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Our hopes for reconciliation between AKP and the Gulen Movement (GM) have so far failed to materialize, with both sides eagerly opening new fronts in the war instead. We start with a recap of the major developments of the last week to emphasize our thesis that the entire state a...

Radical Ideology, Pragmatic Implementation
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jan 2014

In his first annual message to the National Assembly on 15 January 2014, President Nicolas Maduro confirmed the government’s intervention strategy "no matter what happens” (sic) emphasizing on controls on prices and foreign exchange transactions. Shortly after, Jorge Arreaza, Executive Vicepresid...

Real Retail Sales: Latest Data
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2014

Real retail sales expanded in November. In the restricted sense (without cars and building materials), the increase was 0.7%, while in the augmented concept growth was 1.3% (Graph 1). The 12-month rates were 7.0% and 5.7%, respectively. Given the carry-over of 2.5% in augmented sales, even with t...

New allegations of corruption by Erdogan & Son rocks the markets
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2014

The war between AKP and the Gulen movement is escalating by the minute. Today, a third wave of arrest warrants centering on the AKP-held Beyoglu municipality of Istanbul were not carried out by police chiefs. AKP took the hatchet to the judiciary rotating more than 30 judges and prosecutors belie...

Time for Political Definition
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 16 Jan 2014

Executive Summary GDP growth in Q4 2013 will reach 3.3%, leading to annual GDP growth of 3.1% for 2013. The relatively low growth rate will result in an increase of half a percentage point in the rate of unemployment, thus reaching 15.4%. As of December 2013, the year-to-year inflation rate remai...

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