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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political Insights: Week of October 28
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2013

The unification of the ICMS will dominate discussions in the Senate. The ICMS will also be debated by Confaz. The Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) will vote on the bill of law to create the compensation funds for state and municipal losses.In the House, we highlight the Civil Framework for the In...

Banxico Overconfident?
MEXICO · In Brief · 25 Oct 2013

Banco de México just announced a 25 basis point reduction in the Domestic Interbank Rate, to an annual 3.5%. It was an expected move by most market operators, i.e. 23 out of 24 participants of the latest Banamex Money Market Survey. Banxico justified this action based on the fact that domestic in...

COSTA RICA: Finance Minister Campaigns for a Deficit Cut
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Oct 2013

Executive SummaryCosta Rican Finance Minister Edgar Ayales is trying to turn the country’s ballooning fiscal deficit into an electoral issue, in the runup to the February 2014 presidential vote. He recently released a 52-page missive, in which he and his team analyzed the results of six months of...

Public Insecurity Worsens Further
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2013

Executive Summary The overall crime rate per 100,000 inhabitants has risen consistently since 2010 according to the National Statistics Office’s Third National Victimization and Security Perception Survey or “ENVIPE”. The study, conducted between March and April of 2013, queried people on matters...

MPC: Cut and Paste, Wait and See
TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2013

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee left all rates (weekly policy as well as the O/N rates; see graph) and all other policy levers unchanged today. The wording of the statement was literally a carbon copy of the September statement (click here for this and here for the previous statements....

Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (Mini-Budget): 23 October 2013
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 23 Oct 2013

In his Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, the SA Minister of Finance walked a tight rope, made all the right moves and repeated messages of political support for the National Development Plan.  He was ever-conscious of the importance of macroeconomic stability, given the country’s twin deficits...

MPC: No Action, No Change in Wording...
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2013

Today’s MPC decision made no changes in rates or other instruments. The wording was almost exactly the same as well. There should be no market impact.  A more detailed brief will be available later today.

Industrial Decoupling’s Future
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2013

Executive Summary The most significant news on the economic front last week was the Chamber of Deputies’ vote to pass its version of the 2014 Revenue Law. Changes to tax laws include the levying of a 5% tax on junk food (fruit-flavored candies, chocolates, chips or crisps, gelatins, ice cream, an...

Political Insights: Week of October 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2013

A busy week: Once again the Confaz will try to make an agreement for the unification of the ICMS.The government may also edit an MP on goodwill accounting in cases of mergers and acquisitions among companies in the same group. In the House of Representatives, congressmen will try to conclude the ...

Oil Boosts Finances; the President Makes Threats
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Oct 2013

Executive Summary The oil sector delivered mixed news in Q3. Crude oil production rose by 15,000 barrels per day in January-August 2013, from 2012.This fact, plus a high average oil price of $97.91 per barrel, helped to boost crude oil exports 2.7% y/y, from $8.717 billion to $8.950 billion. Yet ...

Only Moderate Growth of Consumption, Despite Positive Signals
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Oct 2013

Growth of retail sales in the restricted sense (excluding cars and construction materials) was surprisingly strong again in August. Graph 1 shows that in the quarter through August, these sales expanded at an annualized pace of 10.5%, showing continued strong acceleration in relation to the first...

Battered from Many Fronts
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Oct 2013

Executive Summary We maintain our previous forecast for subdued economic activity in South Africa over the medium-term, with inflation adjusted gross domestic product growth recording 2.0 percent in 2013 and 2.4 percent in 2014. The labor market is poised to remain weak as we expect companies to ...

Continued Higher Remittance Growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Oct 2013

The BSP reported today continuing above-forecast growth in remittances from Filipino workers overseas.  Personal remittances, which include transfers in cash or in kind, continued to exceed $2 billion for the fifth consecutive month in August, equivalent to a 7.4% yoy growth.  The bulk of this co...

PKK leader Ocalan Criticizes Peace Process, but Fails to Order New Action
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Oct 2013

Despite the Id of Sacrifice, Turkish politics is in full swing.  A team of pro-Kurdish BDP representatives visited incarcerated leader Ocalan on 15 October who sounded extremely disappointed with the Reform Package and the progress of the Peace Process. Ocalan repeated his well-known demands.   M...

Room for Improvement
MEXICO · Report · 15 Oct 2013

Executive Summary The Chamber of Deputies is facing an October 20 deadline for passing its version of the 2014 Revenue Law. While no one can predict the final details of that bill, the extent of opposition to new tax proposals suggest that both the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto a...

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