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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Economic cycle to serve the new Georgian government well in the run-up to the Oct elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Feb 2024

As the new government led by Irakli Kobahidze starts its term, prospects for the economy look bright, with Georgia gearing up for the October parliamentary elections. The strong economic momentum continues, with 2023 GDP growth upgraded to 7.5 percent from 7.0 percent previously. We forecast 2024...

Economic growth moderates in January
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Feb 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for an overall economic activity) grew by 4.3% y-o-y, i.e., down from about 5.0% in the previous months. Even though this indicator was affected by a high base effect (faster growth in January 2023), there a...

A rate cut this month cannot be ruled out
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Feb 2024

Another low CPI print in January Inflation in January was stable (0.0% m/m) and slowed to 2.6% y/y from 3.0% in December. This index came in at the low end of expectations (0.0%-0.1%). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) slowed to 2.4% y/y from 2.7%. Prices of core goods t...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2024

Investors are waiting for a new sanctions package - to be announced on Feb 24. There are no indications that it will target the financial sector, but this scenario cannot be ruled out. The ruble weakened in anticipation of this event but remains more or less stable. Financial markets, in general,...

The South African economy on shaky ground beyond the post-pandemic recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 Feb 2024

• Bonds: The South African bond market continues to be a reflection of the levels of confidence in both the country itself and as a member of the emerging markets group. At the same time, South Africa’s own homegrown economic weaknesses have been responsible for the bulk of the vulnerability in t...

Disinflation Continues
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Feb 2024

In January, inflation slowed down for the fourth month in a row to 1.7 percent from 3.0 percent in December. Had it not been for increases in services—chiefly recreation and basic services—inflation would have come in lower still. Food prices, with their weight of nearly 50 percent in our basket,...

Bolsonaro has called for a demonstration on February 25 that he hopes will establish him as a significant electoral player, and his supporters seem to be organizing themselves to attend
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Feb 2024

President Jair Bolsonaro is calling for a demonstration on February 25 so that he can defend himself against accusations of an attempted coup d'état. He believes this would be a demonstration in defense of the democratic rule of law. It appears that his supporters are organizing themselves to att...

Balancing the books, shifting the landscape: the NFPS deficit and Martinelli's disqualification
PANAMA · Report · 15 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Despite having to resort to accounting artifices, the government upheld the fiscal ceiling, as highlighted by credit rating agencies and analysts. In 2022, the Non-Financial Public Sector deficit was 3.98% (when the legal limit was 4.0%), and in 2023, it fell below the required 3.0%. In the last ...

Russian macro 2024: Adjusting to new realities may be challenging as realities change
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 14 Feb 2024

It turned out that Russia’s 2023 economic growth looked decent, as its nominal GDP exceeded R171 trln and grew by 3.6% in real terms according to Rosstat’s preliminary estimates. Eventually, after a series of revisions, the nominal figure may be even higher—as has happened repeatedly in the past....

Russia issues arrest warrant for Estonian Prime Minister
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2024

On February 13 this unprecedented move was made against Kaja Kallas. Kallas advocated for the removal of a Soviet monument in Estonia. Estonia is a former Soviet republic and has a significant Russian minority. It is an EU and NATO member and has been vociferous in support of Ukraine.  The arrest...

The Signs of Economic Activity and Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Feb 2024

For inflation to converge to the target, it is necessary for economic activity to decelerate sufficiently for inflation expectations to equal the target. Although after the strong result observed in November (mainly due to Black Friday promotions), real retail sales cooled, our models indicate th...

Q4 GDP came out even weaker than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Feb 2024

This morning, KSH reported its first estimate for Q4 GDP growth at 0% qoq, 0.4% yoy, implying a 0.8% decrease of GDP in full-year 2023, following 4.6% growth in 2022, all in real terms, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. As usual, details have not been released at this stage; KSH made only a v...

President Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet as anticipated
PERU · In Brief · 13 Feb 2024 · 6 responses

Tonight President Dina Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet and replaced the following ministers: Economy and Finance, Alex Contreras; Defense, Jorge Luis Chavez; Energy and Mines, Óscar Vera; and Environment, Albina Ruiz. She has taken oath of office this afternoon from the new ministers: José Arista...

Cabinet crisis persists; Chancay port could create a Pacific hub; BCRP to cut 125bp in 2024
PERU · Report · 13 Feb 2024

In this report we cover politics, the economy and markets. First, we discuss the crisis gripping President Dina Boluarte’s Cabinet. In our last report, we argued that Boluarte may opt for a reshuffle – but as of this writing, that had not happened. As a consequence of her failure to act, the Cab...

Economics: Recent economic data anticipate early 2024 slowdown
MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2024

Preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures and recently released November and December economic activity indicators point to a slowdown in the early months of 2024 in the face of the contraction trend in manufacturing and the high comparison posed by a rally in construction activity that we estimate ...

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