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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Ecuador’s violence sends shockwaves; El Niño impact less severe than expected; BCRP likely to pause in February and March
PERU · Report · 16 Jan 2024 · 2 responses

We discuss three topics in this report. First, in politics, we discuss the risk that the recent wave of violence in neighboring Ecuador will spread to Peru. Next, we discuss our economic outlook, and reassess the impacts of the El Niño weather shock. Finally, we discuss the recent decision by the...

Uzbekistan-to-China road opens
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2024

On January 10 the first TIR (Transports Internationaux Routiers or International Road Transport) truck departed from China to Tashkent, Uzbekistan carrying electrical goods. It is a 6,500 km journey. The route goes via Kyrgyzstan. The journey should take 7 days. Before the new road opened it usua...

Economics: Wage hikes and pending and potential labor reforms heighten labor cost pressures following a slight 4Q inflation rebound
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Consumer inflation concluded December 2023 with a slight rebound above levels of the previous few months, but at 4.66% it was considerably lower than the 7.82% year-end rate of 2022. Core inflation (5.09%) continued to outpace headline inflation, pressured higher by core services (5.33%), and foo...

Politics: A de-legitimizing loss of civility, and new corruption scandals within the 4T and the opposition threaten citizen participation
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jan 2024

The behaviors and practices of members of the political class from all parties in Mexico show with increasing brazenness what little regard they have for rules. The privileges that government officials and party leaders have historically enjoyed plus the widespread corruption under the previous p...

CCA Highlights: Fresh tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, energy extraction drops in Azerbaijan in 2023, Georgia confirmed at BB, new CB Governor in Tajikistan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

We highlight key macro-related evenst in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: CPI falls by 0.6 percent YoY in Dec Armenia: Net monetary inflows (remittances) drop to lowest in Nov Armenia: Budget deficit to remain contained in 2023 Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinyan takes a hit at Presid...

North Korean Foreign Minister in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2024

On January 16 Choe Son Hui met her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. Very few countries are willing to receive North Korean dignitaries. Lavrov expressed his gratitude for North Korea's vote against a UN resolution calling on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. He said his meeting today was to refl...

The promise of export-led growth
INDIA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Many, if not most, global corporations have embarked on producing software, back office and R&D in India. There is considerable skill and capability in global corporations and domestically in performing these three roles in India. There was a remarkable streak of growth in these fields from 2...

Pacheco and Haddad found no solution to the payroll tax issue, Lula met with the president of Paraguay, and three ministers will attend a panel at Davos about the energy transition in Brazil
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Yesterday, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), met with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), to discuss the payroll tax exemption. The meeting ended without a solution to the issue. Yesterday, Lula met with the president of Paraguay, Santiago Peña. They discussed the ...

A record of over 9 million tourists is expected to have visited in 2023 as Bahamas repays its Eurobond
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

The Bahamas tourism-driven recovery accelerated in the second half of last year, with international flight and cruise arrivals rising well above their pre-pandemic levels. Bahamas is now expecting well over 9 million tourists to have visited during the calendar year of 2023 once December numbers ...

What Explains 2023 Growth?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

It is becoming increasingly clear that growth in 2023 was not due to increased potential GDP. Despite seducing influential observers, the narrative that Brazil is reaping the benefits of the maturing of past reforms cannot withstand the clear evidence that only actual GDP has been rising, derived...

The first problems of 2024 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Even with the congressional recess, the discussion about payroll tax relief continues behind the scenes. States and the Federal Government are working on regulating Tax Reform. Data we compiled shows that, despite the difficulties he has faced, President Lula maintains a considerable level of sup...

December’s CPI surprised on the downside
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Jan 2024

1. Inflation surprised on the downside in December; core inflation moderated to 2.7% y/y. 2. We have revised our inflation forecast upward due to the weaker shekel and higher taxation as part of fiscal accommodation. 3. This week, markets will follow closely the credibility of the fiscal ...

South Africa’s year of national elections: the ANC’s pre-election January 8 statement
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Amidst what is likely to be the toughest year since taking power in South Africa after the fall of the apartheid government for the African National Congress (ANC), President Ramaphosa, who is both President of the governing ANC and the Republic, delivered the ANC’s customary January 8 Statement,...

Exchange rates matter now more than ever
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

In 2023, the Venezuelan Central Bank (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV) sharpened its focus on taming the exchange rate. In the fourth quarter, which is when public outlays tend to be strongest, the BCV supplemented active exchange rate intervention with close monitoring of bank exchange operat...

Charter change: Game changer in the Philippines?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024

It started with one ad that made the rounds of television networks, calling for a change in some provisions of the 1987 Philippine Constitution. Repudiating the 1986 People Power Revolution that ended the elder Marcos's dictatorship, the message was that progress in the Philippines was stalled be...

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