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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Rate cut far from certain despite slowing inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Mar 2024

1. Despite inflation moderation in February, a rate cut in April is far from assured. 2. We are forecasting inflation of 3.2% in the NTM due to an expansionary fiscal policy, higher shipping costs, and an expected acceleration in rental prices. 3. The current account surplus has improved bu...

Philippines: Jobs trend slightly reverses course
PHILIPPINES · Report · 18 Mar 2024

The Philippines’ employment rate increased slightly, to 95.5 percent in January 2024 from the 95.2 percent posted in January of the previous year. The rate was, however, lower than the 96.9 percent employment rate recorded in December 2023. Some seasonality is definitely involved here. Consider...

Putin wins record vote in dubious election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

As we predicted, Putin won a higher share of the vote than ever before: 87%. He expressed his gratitude to those who voted and took the opportunity to praise Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. He said the war explained the high turnout, which was a record breaking 70%. The runner up was the co...

Next rate decision will hinge mostly on the direction of the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024

Inflation continued to moderate in February Inflation slowed to 2.5% y/y from 2.6%, and core to 2.2% from 2.4%. The main item moderating inflation was housing rental prices which decelerated to 2.0% y/y from 3.0% last month. Other items tended to surprise on the upside, both goods and services. I...

It's all about the MPC
TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2024

The races in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir turned largely static during the week, while new poll data from Anatolia was full of surprises. The politics author is confident in calling Ankara and Izmir for CHP incumbents, while Imamoglu stands a good chance to edge out AKP’s Kurum in Istanbul. Yet,...

Presidential election underway in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2024

On March 15 the election began. Polls close on March 17. The government has warned that protests during elections will be dealt with firmly. Anti-Putin groups armed by Ukraine have vowed to disrupt the election. They have been raiding across the border in March 2024. In the last presidential elec...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco hiked dividends, Saudi Q4 GDP, UAE Q4 fiscal, Dubai PMI surges
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Mar 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose to $85 as the IEA’s latest forecast sees the market in deficit this year. * US criticism of Israel intensified as Ramadan began without a ceasefire and with growing famine concerns. * Hamas reduced its demands, t...

100 Days to Celebrate
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Mar 2024

President Daniel Noboa can celebrate his first 100 days in office with an 80% acceptance of his mandate—the highest level of popularity enjoyed by an Ecuadorian president. He moved fast on the right track to partially contain the dangerous insecurity and violence situation of last January and to...

Lula will hold the first ministerial meeting of 2024 on Monday, three bills submitted by the government should be put to a vote next week, and the STF is expected to analyze the case of the lifetime review of the INSS
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Mar 2024

President Lula will hold the first ministerial meeting of 2024 on Monday, March 18. The meeting was motivated by the drop in popularity recorded by opinion polls published a few days ago (Atlas, Genial/ Quaest, and IPEC). Next week, starting on March 19, four bills that have an urgent status in t...

Inflation continues to moderate, rate cut in April far from certain
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Mar 2024

Inflation continues to moderate, but the devil is in the details Inflation in February (0.4% m/m, 2.5% y/y down from 2.6% in January) was in line with expectations (or a bit at the high end, we were expecting 0.3%). Core inflation (headline excluding energy and fresh produce) moderated to 2.2% y/...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diverging impulses in monetary policies across CCA
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Mar 2024

This week brought three rate decisions in the CCA, including Armenia, Georgia and Uzbekistan. They demonstrate that, while the broader easing momentum in the region continues, policymakers take a different view on how underlying macroeconomic conditions affect the path for policy rates. Indeed...

Moldova has met most conditions for EU membership
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

On March 12 the EU Commission privately published a report saying that Moldova has met 11 of the 12 conditions for accession talks. The report was leaked to the media. The last remaining condition is to examine the background of judges properly and appoint a new Prosecutor General. There have bee...

February CPI and monetary policy implications
CHILE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The second CPI under the newly-designed basket surprised on the upside again, confirming that the new basket inherited the old basket’s volatility. Some of the problem might be attributed to the volatility of the exchange rate and international prices, but this would only affect a limited part of...

NBU surprised with a minor prime rate cut by 0.5 ppt down to 14.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The NBU Board reduced the prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 14.5%, effective March 15. This decision came as a surprise to the market, especially following the January announcement that a minor prime rate cut might only be considered in the second half of 2024. The main justification for this unexpected m...

Haddad canceled his trip to Berlin because of the ministerial meeting on Monday, Tarcísio met with Haddad to discuss São Paulo’s federal debt, and the bill on electronic gambling was approved in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2024

The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, was going to participate in the 10th Edition of the Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue next week. However, he decided to cancel his trip because there will be a ministerial team meeting on Monday, March 18. Yesterday, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de...

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