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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Transition government: The political and economic landscape takes shape
ECUADOR · Report · 07 Nov 2023

President Daniel Noboa surprised everyone in New York with two statements aimed at convincing the markets and multilaterals of the need to support Ecuador with financing for its fiscal and social needs during the period of his mandate. However, these two statements could work in opposite directio...

COSTA RICA: Positive economic news
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 07 Nov 2023

The last few weeks have been marked by positive news for Costa Rica's economy. First, the EU recently removed the country from the tax haven blacklist as a result of the amendments approved by the Legislative Assembly to the foreign exemption regime. This is a major accomplishment because it remo...

Moldovan municipal elections are mixed result for pro-Western government
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Nov 2023

On November 6 the results came in. The mayor of the capital was re-elected. His National Alternative Movement (MAN) is said to be pro-Moscow. The Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is the ruling party. PAS wants the country to join the EU. PAS won 19 out of the 32 counties in the country. Presi...

The CCJ may vote on Senator Braga’s report on Tax Reform today, the Joint Budget Committee may vote on Deputy Forte’s preliminary report, and Lira and Pacheco said the government should continue to pursue the zero-deficit target
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2023

Today, November 7, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Senate may vote on Senator Eduardo Braga's (MDB-AM) report on the Tax Reform Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). Also today, the Joint Budget Committee may vote on the preliminary report of Deputy Danilo Forte (União Bras...

Economics: GDP outperforms in 3Q even as evidence grows of slowing ahead that could be aggravated by the toll Hurricane Otis is taking
MEXICO · Report · 07 Nov 2023

Mexico’s economy expanded in the third quarter an annual 3.3% according to Inegi’s preliminary calculations. That headline result was better than expected but marked a slowing compared to the 3.7% recorded through the first half of the year and pointed toward the likelihood of further slowing in ...

Politics: Hurricane Otis’s devastation has only just begun as AMLO’s typical unipersonal response stymies reconstruction efforts
MEXICO · Report · 06 Nov 2023

When Hurricane Otis delivered a devastating blow to the state of Guerrero, the second poorest in the country, no one from any level of government or emergency services was anywhere to be found even as civil society sought to fill the void, backed by the solidarity of philanthropic foundations and...

Kazakhstan macro: A vicious circle not yet broken
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 Nov 2023

The excessively strong tenge was one of the main reasons for the widening republican budget deficit in 9M23. Another reason for the wider deficit was the amended expenditures—along with the assumption that the revenue would grow as much as the additional spending. As the latter has not yet happen...

Public policy anchors inflation and growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Nov 2023

What macro data are to be released? The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release the actual October 2023 inflation, both headline and core, tomorrow November 7. As we write this In Brief in Rome, we are guided by the BSP’s own press statement last October 26 after its off-cycle mee...

The fiscal conflict and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2023

In the Senate, the highlight is the vote on Tax Reform. Discussions continue around the fiscal target for 2024. On Tuesday, the Joint Budget Committee votes on the preliminary report on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). Appointments to the Central Bank (BC) may be sent to the Senate. The STF may a...

The Lula of 2003 and the Lula Of 2023: From Pragmatism to Populism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Nov 2023

In this report, we compare the objectives and the motivations – economic and political – underpinning the fiscal policy in two Lula administrations. The first (Lula 1), starting in 2003, was marked by an acute crisis of confidence, prompting Lula to be temporarily pragmatic, unconditionally accep...

German Foreign Minister visits Armenia and Azerbaijan on peace mission
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2023

On November 4 and 5 Annalena Baerbock visited the two countries. She is trying to prevent the conflict between the two Caucasian countries from breaking out anew. The European Union is trying to establish itself as a force in the region. Georgia was rejected for EU candidate membership in 2022 bu...

The CCJ should vote on Senator Braga’s report on Tax Reform tomorrow, the Joint Budget Committee should vote on Deputy Forte’s preliminary report, and the STF should resume analysis of the FGTS ADI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2023

On Tuesday, November 7, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Senate may vote on Senator Eduardo Braga's (MDB-AM) report on the Tax Reform Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). The objective is to vote on the text on Wednesday and Thursday in the plenary. Also on Tuesday, Novembe...

A widening fiscal deficit amid the conflict will require additional (but manageable) bond issuance
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Nov 2023

1. The shekel appreciated sharply last week as a result of both strong equity markets abroad and growing expectations that the war will be limited to Gaza. 2. Credit card purchases continue to expand modestly, but private consumption remains far below pre-war levels. 3. We expect a fiscal d...

A widening fiscal deficit will require additional (but manageable) bond issuance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Hamas. There is much fog regarding the war, Israel has encircled Gaza city, a major Hamas stronghold including underground tunnels. International pressure for a cease-fire is mounting as civil...

Our election coverage kicks off
TURKEY · Report · 05 Nov 2023

In a development that may improve CHP’s chances of keeping big-city municipalities in the March 2024 local elections, delegates threw out incumbent Kemal Kilicdaroglu to crown “change” candidate Ozgur Ozel. The politics author thus initiates his local election coverage, tentatively concluding ...

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