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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Kazakhstan bans fuel exports to Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2023

On October 20 Kazakhstan made the move saying it needs fuel for itself. The bank covers liquefied petroleum gas, propane and butane. The ban is to last until 2026. A fuel price hike in Kazakhstan in January 2022 caused massive protests and riots that left over 200 dead. Therefore the government i...

US sanctions on countries accused of supplying Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023

On November 3 the US said it was sanctioning individuals and entities whom it believes are enabling Russia to prosecute its war in Ukraine. The people and entities are from the United Arab Emirates, China and Turkey. Russia is sourcing technology and equipment for its armed forces from abroad. Ru...

EU Commission's evaluation of Hungary's judicial reform is delayed further by new questions
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023

Following a letter with questions sent out on September 26, which the government answered on October 19, the EU Commission sent another letter with new questions regarding 'certain elements' of Hungary's judicial reforms on November 1, a Commission spokesman told the Hungarian press the other day...

Kazakhstan hosts Turkic Summit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023

On November 3 the members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) met in Astana. It marked the 10th anniversary of the OTS. The presidents of its members attended.  The Kazakh president stated the 8 pillars for his chairmanship of the OTS in 2024. He seeks deeper cooperation. There is talk of ...

Senior Ukrainian general says war is a stalemate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023

On November 1 Valery Zaluzhny said in an article in The Economist that neither side can make a breakthrough unless they get new technology. He tacitly admitted that the counter-offensive had failed. Zaluzhny is asking for long term aid. He says a war of attrition favors Russia, which outnumbers U...

No one falls from grace halfway
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Nov 2023

In Latin American national elections today, the opposition has an 80% chance of winning, according to a recent statistical analysis. After the 2015 commodities crisis, and especially after the COVID pandemic, opposition parties won almost four of every five elections in the region. We are seeing ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi non-oil growth slowed in Q3, UAE non-oil growth strong in Q2, Bahrain reconsiders relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia is the sole bidder for World Cup
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Nov 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Russian and Iranian oil production/exports rose in October. * The ground phase of the Gaza war began, and concerns grew about civilian casualties and displacement. * Qatar mediated to enable foreign nationals to leave Gaz...

Headline better than expected, thanks to softer food inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2023

Consumer prices rose by a slower than expected 3.4%, m/m, in October, compared with (including ours) forecasts of around 4%, with our forecast error largely stemming from lower food inflation. Annual CPI-inflation has thus remained broadly unchanged from a month ago, standing at 61.4%, slightly l...

The goal is to vote on Tax Reform in the Senate by the end of November, the payroll tax bill will be sent to Lula for approval, and the STF may resume analysis of the FGTS case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2023

In the Senate, the focus is on Tax Reform. In a meeting with the Ministry of Finance, the rapporteur, Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), said that he is making small changes to his text. Although there may be a delay in this schedule, the vote is expected to be completed in the Senate in November. T...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia likely to get a conditional Yes (or a conditional No) in its bid to earn EU candidate status
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Nov 2023

Georgia is anxiously waiting for European Commission’s final report on the fulfillment of the 12 recommendations needed to earn the much-coveted status of an official EU candidate country. In this short note we review the background of Georgia’s journey to applying for the status and argue that t...

Slowing growth as the South African economy labors under local and global headwinds
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 02 Nov 2023

• South Africa’s growth: The South African economy’s real GDP was 0.9% higher in H1-2023 than it was during the corresponding period in 2022. The muted GDP growth rates recorded during both the first and second quarters of 2023 indicate the South African economy is struggling under the strain...

Kazakhstan macro: Too-strong tenge still hindering budget revenue growth
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 02 Nov 2023

On October 30, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published the budgetary statistics for 9M23, and the publication appeared later than usual. One cannot rule out that this delay was caused by internal discussions about the feasibility of the amended 2023 budget plan, as well as the 2024 budget. Tax...

2024 inflation forecast revised up slightly, band widened sharply
TURKEY · Report · 02 Nov 2023 · 1 response

The CBRT has released the final Inflation Report of the year today, which was, as usual, accompanied by a speech and a presentation by Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan. The CBRT aligned the end-2023 forecast with the MTP, raising it to 65% up from 58% in the July report, and revised the end-2024 foreca...

Putin withdraws Russia from nuclear treaty
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

On November 2 Putin signed the de-ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). CTBT forbade nuclear weapons tests. This takes effect immediately. Russia and the US signed it on 1996. Although Russia ratified it, the US never did so. Several other nuclear weapons states refuse...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

Oct 20 Bereke Bank: An investor from Qatar is evaluating Kazakhstani Bereke Bank (a former subsidiary of Russian Sberbank). The aim is to propose the Kazakh government to purchase the controlling stake in the institution. Ministry of Trade: The Government confirms that there is no ban on exports ...

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