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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economy grows at decent pace and remains overheated
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

Rosstat reported that in 9M23, the output of the five basic sectors grew by 4.8% y-o-y. In September alone, it grew by 8.9% y-o-y - largely due to a low base effect. The industry grew by 3.3% and 5.6% over the same periods (both numbers are y-o-y). Agriculture moved from negative territory to pos...

Essential CIS Politics: November 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 02 Nov 2023

* Russia hosts Hamas for talks in Moscow during the Israel-Hamas conflict. * Russia is increasing arms production and allegedly buying from N Korea. * Fighting in Ukraine shows no advantage being gained for either side. * Armenia was forced to hand Nagorno-Karabakh back to Azerbaijan. *...

The Central Bank reduces the monetary policy interest rate from 7.50% to 7.25% annually.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

On October 31, 2023, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) decided to reduce the monetary policy interest rate again by 25 basis points, decreasing from 7.50% to 7.25% annually. Also the rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) is reduced from 8.00% to 7.75% an...

Strong current account deficit persists in 3Q23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Nov 2023

The National Bank reported that in 3Q23, the current account again registered a strong deficit ($2.9bn), although this deficit was slightly narrower than in 2Q23 (close to $3.3bn). In 9M23, the current account deficit widened to almost $7.7 bn. The trade balance in 9M23 was in surplus ($13.7 bn),...

Fear of floating vs. fear of falling
CHILE · Report · 01 Nov 2023 · 3 responses

The August IMACEC delivered a pretty big surprise -- and not a good one. Beyond the monthly volatility, economic activity has remained stagnant since late 2022, and the output gap continues to narrow. In August, retail sales recorded a negative monthly change for the eighth consecutive month. In ...

A mid-week macro update
TURKEY · Report · 01 Nov 2023 · 1 response

As we’ve noted in Sunday’s post, the econ author could not contribute his share to the Weekly report as he was in transit on Sunday – and hence, today’s post, which provides a quick rundown of recent macro developments, along with a few quick thoughts and impressions from his meetings while in Lo...

Lula says the fiscal target depends on the approval of the government’s proposals in Congress, the question is whether the government will maintain the zero-deficit target, and tomorrow is a federal holiday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Nov 2023

During the meeting with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, party leaders, and other ministers, President Lula made some important points, namely that the fiscal target for next year depends on the National Congress’s approving the measures sent by the government to increase revenue by the ...

Inclusion in the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Index
INDIA · Report · 01 Nov 2023

In 2024-25, for a period of 10 months, global index funds will bring $24 billion into a group of “Fully Accessible Route” (“FAR”)-designated Indian government bonds. This flow will be material when compared with the flow of government borrowing of that period. Beyond that, this policy change i...

Azerbaijan becomes the last CCA country to cut rates
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 01 Nov 2023

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan cut the policy rate by 50bpts to 8.5 percent on Nov 1. There was some intrigue about this policy decision given the recent downpath of inflation and the fact that the central bank was the last holdout in the CCA space regarding the transition to easing. While it had...

Turkey switches to inflation accounting in 2024, will all Hell break loose?
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Oct 2023

Turkish Ministry of Finance and Treasury issued a circular last week, informing all incorporated and limited liability firms that balance sheets must be adjusted according to inflation accounting rules for YE2023. In 2024, income statements, too, shall be revised in such a manner. The revised 202...

Growing rift between Russia and Israel
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2023

On October 31 Israel criticized the Russian government for failing to prevent a crowd trying to stop a plane from Israel landing in Russia. The crowd of hundreds took over the Makhachalka Airport and was looking for Israelis and Russian Jews. One police officer was killed in clashes. 60 people ha...

Avdiivka offensive amid depleted Russian artillery
UKRAINE · Report · 31 Oct 2023

Despite no significant territorial gains being reported, the intensity of the fighting escalated along all fronts throughout September and October. Ukrainian forces continued their push south toward Tokmak, and have been gradually encircling the ruins of Bakhmut. However, since the beginning of O...

Haddad announced new members of the Central Bank Board of Directors, Lula will meet with Haddad to discuss the economic agenda, and the House may vote on the creation of infrastructure debentures this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Oct 2023

Rodrigo Teixeira was announced for the Relationship, Citizenship, and Conduct Supervision Directorate of the Central Bank, and Paulo Picchette for International Affairs and Corporate Risk Management. Today, President Lula will meet with Haddad, leaders, and presidents of allied parties to discuss...

Pithy data commentary-October 31, 2023
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 31 Oct 2023

We briefly comment on the key macro and news events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 25bps to 9.25 percent Armenia: Pace of economic activity drops meaningfully in Sep Armenia: Yield curve becomes (almost) inverted Armenia: PM Nikol Pashinyan sends...

Economics: October indicators show internal demand components remain strong, while non petroleum exports decelerate
MEXICO · Report · 31 Oct 2023

As we await this week’s preliminary report on third quarter GDP, economic news from the past month has painted a picture of an economy that continues to expand largely thanks to growth in fixed asset investments and private consumption. But continuing strength in industrial output has become incr...

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