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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: AMLO’s extended verbal onslaught against the Judiciary takes the form of budget cuts, cancelling trusts and the threat of a major constitutional reform
MEXICO · Report · 31 Oct 2023

Last week, Congress approved the administration’s proposal to cancel 13 out of 14 of the trusts of the Federal Judiciary, just the latest episode in the extended history of President López Obrador's offensive against this branch. However, the executive’s attacks on the judiciary have intensified ...

A rise in the political temperature
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Oct 2023 · 1 response

Indonesia has entered a period of rising political temperature in the run-up to the general elections. The registration for candidates for president and vice president began on October 19, 2023; the first two pairs, Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar, and Ganjar Pranowo and Machfud MD, register...

The current situation concerning the rejection of the approved concession contract with Minera Panama
PANAMA · Report · 31 Oct 2023

After a week of protests, President Cortizo announced a public consultation and the presentation of a mining moratorium bill in the National Assembly. In less than 24 hours, the Electoral Tribunal declared that there are no conditions to organize a public consultation. Protests and discontent con...

A polarized country and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Oct 2023

The offshore and exclusive funds bill begins analysis in the Senate. Fernando Haddad and Arthur Lira meet with party leaders to discuss the ICMS subsidy bill. The holiday on Thursday, November 2, reduces activity in the Legislature. In the economy, the highlight is the Central Bank meeting to dec...

Political and economic ups and downs
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Oct 2023

Costa Rica’s political conditions remain similar, characterized by confrontational relationships like those prevailing since the beginning of this administration. Positive appraisals of President Rodrigo Chaves have declined, and although more than half the population still approves of his perfor...

The earth is moving under the government’s feet
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Oct 2023

To everyone’s surprise, the October 22 opposition primary election drew a significant turnout. 2.4 million people voted, accounting for 12 percent of those registered in the electoral roll. María Corina Machado secured 92 percent of the votes. Her sweep came as no surprise. The clearest eviden...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Oct 2023

Fiscal discipline doesn’t sit well with either Lula or the Centrão parties. Without a government policy to put the country on the path to sustainable economic growth, with his popularity sinking and dependence growing on the Centrão to win approval of any measures in Congress, Lula has abandoned ...

Russian macro: the CBR turns increasingly hawkish amid an overheating economy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Oct 2023

On October 27, the CBR raised the key rate by a surprising 200 bps, which was well above market expectations (100 bps). The regulator explicitly mentioned that its monetary policy will remain tight, and the average annual key rate won’t change much in 2024. The CBR hinted that it may consider an ...

Lula said that the government is unlikely to reach the zero deficit target for 2024, the offshore bill begins analysis in the Senate, and there is a federal holiday on Thursday (November 2)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Oct 2023

President Lula's statement, last Friday, October 27, that the government is “unlikely” to meet the fiscal target of zero deficit in 2024 should continue to resonate throughout this week. Minister Fernando Haddad did not comment. The bill that deals with the taxation of exclusive and offshore fund...

Monetary loosening likely to be postponed until hostilities subside
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Oct 2023

1. Governor Yaron has strongly emphasized that monetary loosening will be postponed until after shekel stabilization. 2. The shekel could stabilize in the short run (or even appreciate), assuming more certainty regarding a limited scope of the conflict. 3. Recent data underline Israel’s pos...

Armenia ready to give Azerbaijan (and Turkey) what they want without a fight
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 30 Oct 2023

While the world is focused on the Middle East, there has been a flurry of events in the South Caucasus that continue to fire the imagination of those that still anticipate an imminent joint Azeri/Turkish invasion of sovereign Armenia to join Turkey and Azerbaijan by land. And why not? There were ...

Crowd storms Russian airport
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Oct 2023

On October 29 people in Dagestan burst onto the airport runway in a failed attempt to stop a flight from Israel landing at Makhachkala Airport. The people were protesting against Israel's attacks on Gaza. Dagestan is a Muslim majority republic of Russia. They were angry that Israelis can come to ...

Middle East controls our destiny
TURKEY · Report · 29 Oct 2023

This politics-only Weekly is dedicated to understanding President Erdogan’s motives. By sending the legislation on the ratification of Swedish membership in NATO, he looked like a good team player. He also remained comparatively composed in the early days of the Israel-HAMAS war, only to blow off...

Azerbaijan-Turkey military exercises
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2023

On October 23 the two countries began three days of joint drills. The two countries speak almost the same language and often boast of their fraternal relationship. 3,000 troops took part in the drills, which are named in honor of the founder of the Turkish Republic, Ataturk. Some of the drills to...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediation on Gaza progresses, PIF announced auto deals at FII, Eni signs LNG deal with Qatar, Egypt seeks another $5bn deposit
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Oct 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IEA revised down its 2050 oil & gas projections but sees the Middle East’s share growing. * The casualty count rose sharply in Gaza, including nearly 3,000 children, and supplies have run low. * Qatar mediated the rel...

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