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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Next week Lira will meet with Haddad to discuss the ICMS subsidy, there will be a federal holiday on Thursday, and the Central Bank is expected to further reduce the basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Oct 2023

Next week, Lira will hold a meeting with Fernando Haddad to discuss the bill that deals with the ICMS subsidy. The text had been sent through a provisional measure but was poorly received by Congress. There continues to be resistance regarding the content of the article. We will have another holi...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan: Steady as it goes (for now)
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Oct 2023

This report on Tajikistan completes the task of providing detailed chart packs on individual countries in the CCA region. Tajikistan’s economy has performed better than anticipated this year with GDP growth having expanded by 8.2 percent over the first eight months of the year. While traditio...

Money, money, money…it´s not always sunny. The contract with Minera Panama approved by legislators and ratified by Cortizo, but the positive impact on public finances is overshadowed by nationwide protests against the contract
PANAMA · Report · 27 Oct 2023

The end of the year presents a challenge for Panama's public finances as the likelihood of meeting fiscal targets diminishes due to lower-than-expected revenue collection. The final quarter's performance, hinging on the Panama Canal, remains critical to closing this gap. Currently, the government...

Russian industry continues to expand, albeit still moderately
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

Rosstat reported that industrial production grew by 3.3% y-o-y in 9M23, and the figure appears not very impressive. However, it is still skewed by base effects. The more indicative could be a look at 3Q23 and September statistics. It grew by 5.3% and 5.6% (y-o-y in both cases) in these two period...

Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2023

Fiscal space, defined as the government’s flexibility in choosing to increase spending, is a concept closely tied to the sustainability of the public debt. Countries where the real interest rate is lower than the rate of economic expansion have greater fiscal space than countries in which the rea...

The MPC delivers the consensus again
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate by another 500 bps today to 35%, in line with the consensus forecast. As for the content of the statement, the paragraph on inflation presents a mixed – and a broadly agreeable -- picture on the inflation outlook, with “the “pass-through from tax regulations...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

In response to the recent excessive FX market volatility, the Russian authorities imposed some additional elements of capital controls. Since mid-October, the main 43 exporters are obliged to repatriate not less than 80% of their export revenues and then to sell on the local market not less than ...

Disinflation will slow substantially in 2024
HUNGARY · Forecast · 26 Oct 2023

Forecasting the rest of 2023 seems easy. CPI-inflation is safely set to fall well below 10% by December, and the MNB sterilization rate will be most likely reduced at similar speed, while remaining positive in real terms. With a substantially improving current account, this should be sufficient t...

Russia recruiting from prisons again
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

The Defense Ministry is seeking men in prison to volunteer for service in Ukraine. Previously it was Wagner Group that did this. The men are offered their freedom and the expungement of their criminal records if they survive 6 months at the front. Salaries are USD 2,000 a month. This is enormous ...

The House approved the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds, Senator Braga presented his report on Tax Reform, and the Senate approved the payroll tax exemption bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2023

The House approved the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds. The text will now go to the Senate for further analysis. This is an important victory for Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. Yesterday, another topic on the government's priority agenda made progress. Senator...

NBU slashes prime rate by 4 ppt to 16%, keeps "working" rates steady
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

Today, on October 26th, the NBU Board made an unexpected decision, slashing the prime rate by 4 ppt to 16%, effective from October 27th. While the market did anticipate a rate cut, analysts had predicted a more modest 2 ppt reduction. Despite the significant cut in the prime rate, the NBU essenti...

Trade deficit declines sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

September witnessed a sharp reduction in the headline trade deficit to 1.5bn from 3.2bn in both August 23 and September 2022. Industrial exports are up 8% m/m in October, while imports declined: consumer imports by 3.5% (sa), imports of raw materials by 1.4%, and imports of investment goods by 6....

Uzbekistan: Central Bank keeps rates unchanged, doubles down on hawkish message
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent. This is the fifth consecutive decision to keep the policy rate at this level since the last 100bpt cut in Mar 2023. After raising the refinancing rate by 300bpts to 17.0 percent in Mar 2022 due to elevated geopolitical...

Expect a BSP preemptive move...
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

Issue: Monetary policy does not have to act because Philippines inflation is supply driven We are bothered by the latest statement of one of the economic managers of the Philippine government, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan. He was quoted in the bro...

Russian Federal Council votes to end nuclear test ban treaty
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Oct 2023

On October 25 the Federal Council made the decision unanimously. The lower house of Parliament already voted for the same thing on October 20. It is almost certain that Putin will sign off on this decision. Russia will withdraw from the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). CTBT outlaws nuclear e...

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