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Senator Braga will submit his report on Tax Reform on October 24, the House may vote on the offshore and exclusive funds bill, and Congress will analyze presidential vetoes on October 26
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2023

Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), rapporteur of the Tax Reform Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) at the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Senate, will submit his report on Tuesday, October 24. According to the agenda, the vote in the CCJ is scheduled for November 7. This week, t...

Proposed 2024 budget includes more interest payments, and less investment
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 23 Oct 2023

A first look at the proposed 2024 budget does not seem to show substantial changes from the budgets adopted since 2021, with a deficit target of 3.1% of GDP. But with an expected reduction in the tax burden for 2024, to 15% from 15.8%, fiscal space to address higher debt interest payments (3.6% o...

Yet another surprise in the presidential election
ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Oct 2023

Although, as expected, no presidential candidate won the election in the first round, and the two contenders will be Sergio Massa and Javier Milei, the fact that Massa managed to lead the electoral results by a significant margin was unexpected. While Bullrich and Milei signaled a potential elect...

Weakening shekel due to escalation concerns is the main BoI consideration
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Oct 2023

This report was written prior to the Bank of Israel’s October 23, 2023 rate-hold decision, which we forecast in the report. Geopolitics: Last week witnessed further skirmishes in Israel’s North against Hizballah, with mortar fire into Israel and attempts to penetrate Israel so far resulting i...

Analysts lowered rate cut expectations ahead of tomorrow's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2023

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting is due tomorrow. Following a five-month long series of uniform 100bps cuts, analysts now have a median expectation of only 50bps for the monthly reduction of the sterilisation rate, which is now the base rate. So, the rate would go to 12.5%. This is the re...

Weakening shekel due to escalation concerns is main BoI consideration
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Oct 2023

Geopolitics: Last week witnessed further skirmishes in Israel’s North against Hizballah with mortar fire into Israel and attempts to penetrate Israel so far resulting in the killing of nearly 20 Hizballah terrorists and a few Israeli casualties as well. On Sunday, Israel bombed two airports in Sy...

In the midst of fire
TURKEY · Report · 22 Oct 2023

The politics author reports back to work after an unfortunate sports accident, claiming that although Turkey is in the middle of a circle of fire, not much harm will come out of it. Yet, Turkey’s brief flirtation with the US is over as the Grand Assembly is yet to debate Swedish accession and ...

Kazakhstan bans sales of dual use goods to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2023

On October 19 Astana announced that 106 items can no longer be exported to Russia. Western countries had repeatedly accused Kazakhstan of knowingly selling goods to Russia that had a military application. Russia found it easy to get around sanctions. The items now forbidden for sale to Russia inc...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF debut sukuk, S&P Positive on RAK, Qatar-Shell LNG deal, Dubai Q2 GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Oct 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil is back to $93 as the war risk premium offsets global economic concerns. * The UAE and Saudi leaders had a rare meeting on the sidelines of the GCC-ASEAN summit. * Qatar remained active in hostage mediation effo...

Kazakhstan economics: Economic growth to moderate as domestic credit growth is set to decelerate
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 20 Oct 2023

The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan reported that the short-term economic indicator (the Bureau’s monthly measure of overall economic activity in the country) grew by 4.6% y-o-y in 9M23. The growth rate was higher in 7M23 and 8M23—5.3% y-o-y. In 1H23, this indicator grew even faster—b...

Webinar replay - Ecuador: What to expect from the new government amid constraints
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Oct 2023

Get insight into how President-elect Daniel Noboa will attempt to solve Ecuador's current severe problems of insecurity, fiscal pressure, and the threat of a strong El Niño—all with the replay of our webinar, "Ecuador: What to expect from the new government amid constraints".

Today is the deadline for President Lula to sanction the Time Frame bill, Senator Braga may submit his report on Tax Reform on October 24, and the Senate will discuss the bill that deals with the payroll tax exemption
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2023

Today is the deadline for President Lula to sanction or veto the proposal that addresses the so-called “Time Frame” bill, which sets the day of the promulgation of the Federal Constitution on October 5, 1988, as the “Time Frame” for the demarcation of indigenous lands. On Tuesday, October 24, Sen...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan: Are we complacent about macroeconomic risks? - A slide presentation
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Oct 2023

Uzbekistan is, without a doubt, our preferred investment opportunity in the region, and we discussed in detail the reasons for that in our recent Uzbekistan Primer. In this week's report, which is a slide presentation, we discuss some emerging macro risks that could derail economic performance in...

Georgian Parliament decides not to remove president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Oct 2023

On October 19 the impeachment vote was held. As we predicted, President Zurabashvili survived. The ruling party (Georgian Dream) had wanted her removed from office for allegedly breaching the constitution. The motion secured 86 out of 150 votes but required 100 to pass. However, the motion might ...

Russia bans Japanese seafood
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2023

On October 16 Moscow announced the move. China did so a few days earlier.  The ostensible reason is that Japan released waste water from the Fukushima Nuclear Plant into the sea. The plant was the scene of a disaster in 2011. Japan is very safety conscious and insists that releasing the water int...

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