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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The impact of the war in the Middle East on Brazil and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2023

This week, the government is working toward voting on the bill that deals with the taxation of exclusive and offshore funds. Lula has until October 20 to sanction or veto the so-called "Time Frame". In the STF, the adjudication of the correction of the FGTS stands out. And, at the TSE, new cases ...

Politics: Bereft of a coherent foreign policy, Mexico stumbles on the world stage and reverts to policy stances of the 1970s
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2023

The disdain that President López Obrador has displayed toward the issues involved in Mexico's relationship with the world is summarized in his frequently used phrase to justify his indifference on the subject: "The best foreign policy is domestic policy." The consequences of the absence of any pl...

What do the Yield Curves Say?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Oct 2023

In the past four weeks, the nominal yield curve (based on the DI rate) has shifted steadily upward. That movement can be partly attributed to the continuous upward shift of the real yield curve, combined with the same upward movement of the implicit inflation rates. We attribute the rising real i...

The government is trying to vote on the bill that institutes a tax on closed-end and offshore funds, the STF may vote on the FGTS correction case this week, and Friday is the deadline for Lula to veto the Time Frame bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2023

This week, the government is working toward voting on a bill in the House that deals with the taxation of closed-end and offshore funds (PL nº 4,173/23). Another important topic for the market is the adjudication of the correction of the FGTS accounts. The case will be on the Supreme Federal Cour...

A rate cut appears imminent
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Oct 2023

1. We expect rates to decline by 0.5%-0.75% by next week in an effort to support the economy due to the sharp decline in activity. 2. Inflation in September surprised on the downside, declining to 3.8% y/y from 4.1%, and will facilitate monetary easing. 3. The recent outbreak of hostilities...

Russians attack Avdiivka
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2023

Russia is attacking the city in East Ukraine. Putin has made statements about it. He usually does not make a statement about a battle unless it is particularly important. Russia has troops on three sides of the city. Ukraine claims to have destroyed a lot of Russian tanks and artillery pieces nea...

Maharlika Investment Fund critics—are they right?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Oct 2023

This In-Brief is a follow-up to our previous In-Brief of October 14, 2023. The two government financial institutions (GFIs), Land Bank of the Philippines (Landbank) and Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP) were reported to be seeking regulatory relief from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BS...

Keep calm and carry on
TURKEY · Report · 15 Oct 2023 · 2 responses

Industrial production and retail sales were both weak in August, with the latter shrinking sharply, m/m, and the ongoing divergence between the two thus reversing somewhat. Whether this signals the beginning of a sharp downturn remains to be seen, however. The current account balance posted a ...

Ukraine evacuates its citizens from Israel and strongly backs Israel
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Oct 2023

On October 15 a plane took 207 Ukrainians to Kyiv. Ukraine has unequivocally supported Israel and any military action that Israel feels compelled to take in Gaza.  Putin has still not phoned the Israeli Prime Minister since the October 8 attacks nor has he expressed his condolences. Moscow has ca...

A follow-up to yesterday's note: Bulgaria's extra tax on Russian gas shipment is now effective
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Oct 2023

Just a brief update on the subject. In yesterday's note, we wrote of Bulgaria's new €10.2/MWh extraordinary tax on the transit of Russian gas shipments to Serbia and Hungary as a draft approved by the Bulgarian parliament in first reading only. Meanwhile, parliament has given its final approval t...

Bad news on gas transit: the pirates of the Turk Stream pipeline
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Oct 2023

Sorting out the gas supply problem for the landlocked members of the EU (Austria, Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia) seemed to be relatively easy in theory last year: the solution would be cutting consumption, extending pipelines, importing more LNG to Europe and setting up new re-gasification units ...

Good news on fiscal policy: a small monthly budget surplus in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Oct 2023

Just as a reminder, the general government's accrual-method deficit, the main fiscal indicator, was 6.8% of GDP in H1, and that figure was derived from an 8.1% of GDP cash deficit of the central government in the same period. Since then, the monthly records of the latter indicator have shown furt...

Maharlika Investment Fund, ahead of its time?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Oct 2023

It is safe to say everybody in the Philippines recognizes that the economy needs foreign investments to help sustain the momentum of growth and upgrade its likelihood to escape the so-called "lower middle-income trap". But not too many would share the view that the Philippines’ Maharlika Investme...

Stubborn inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Oct 2023

Inflation gathered strength in September, accelerating to 8.7 percent from its August 7.4 percent. Year-on-year inflation came to 318 percent. We see it declining in quarter four to close the year at 274 percent. Shaping the September inflation path were lagged effects from strong August boliv...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC hikes oil forecasts, IMF forecasts surpluses for most, Qatar-France LNG deal, Gulf diplomacy continues on Gaza war
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Oct 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were heavily involved in diplomacy related to the Hamas-Israel war. * OPEC hiked its baseline 2045 oil demand forecast to 116m b/d, above its previous bull scenario. * The IMF forecasts fis...

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