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Russia says that the West is in effect fighting Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2023

On September 24 the Russian Foreign Minister made the claim and said, "They are fighting us.'' He cited the USD 100 billion Western countries have given in arms to Ukraine. He noted that the United Kingdom and the US are giving Ukraine intelligence and there are Western military advisors in Ukrai...

Zero deficit at risk and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2023

President Lula is expected to announce his appointments to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Prosecutor General's Office. Depending on whom he appoints, there may be changes to the ministerial team. On Friday, September 29, Lula will undergo surgery. In the House, the new guarantees framewo...

Transition government: Bridge over troubled waters
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Sep 2023 · 1 response

The president elected on October 15 will have to confront the problems of violence from organized crime and violence from nature. Experts have announced that El Niño this year will be stronger than in previous years, although not as extreme as those of 1982 and 1997. On the other hand, violenc...

Lula should announce appointments to the STF and PGR this week, the House may vote on the legal framework for guarantees, and the Senate Environment Committee may vote on the carbon credit market bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2023

President Lula should is expected to announce the appointment for the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR). Currently, the two strongest names to replace Justice Rosa Weber are the Minister of Justice, Flávio Dino (PSB), and the Attorney General of the Federal Gov...

COPOM, Neutral Interest Rate and Potential GDP
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Sep 2023

In the statement issued after the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank pledged to maintain cuts of 50 basis points per meeting until the end of the year, with the SELIC rate reaching 11.75%. It also warned of the effects of the increase of the neutral interest rate in the United States on Brazil’...

Nagorno Karabakh peace deal seems to be working
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2023

On September 23 the Armenian Forces in the region said they were implementing the terms of the ceasefire. Injured civilians are being evacuated to Armenia. Russian peacekeepers are assisting, and so is the Red Cross. The Armenian forces are handing over their arms to Russian peacekeepers. Aid is ...

Missed opportunities, improved reserves
TURKEY · Report · 24 Sep 2023 · 1 response

President Erdogan’s New York tour was not a failure, but as the politics author sees it, he missed three huge chances to change the way Turkey and the President himself are perceived. In the immediate term, Swedish membership to NATO and its price of selling Turkey F-16s is becoming convoluted, b...

European Commission considers opening accession talks with Ukraine: a major boost for the embattled nation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Sep 2023

Bloomberg has reported that the European Commission is likely to recommend opening accession negotiations with Ukraine by the end of 2023. If this information is confirmed, it will be exceptionally positive news and a significant boost for Ukraine. Although Ukraine was granted candidate status in...

Ukrainians strike Russian Black Sea Fleet HQ
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2023

On September 23 a Ukrainian missile struck the HQ in Sevastopol. Videos have shown the building burning. Storm Shadow missiles provided by France and the UK were used in the attack. Russia said it shot down some missiles over Crimea. Ukraine has been concentrating its attacks on Crimea. Ukraine i...

Zelensky in Canada
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2023

On September 22 the Ukrainian President went on an unannounced visit to Ottawa. He was recently in New York for the UN General Assembly. He will address the Canadian Parliament. Canada has provided over USD 6 billion worth of arms since 2022. This is a lot considering Canada's 33 million populati...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi and UAE raise debt, Bahrain’s H1 deficit at -4.7% of GDP, Oman’s non-oil GDP flat in Q2, Fox interviews MBS
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Sep 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The US-Iran prisoner swap took place in Qatar but there was no nuclear file breakthrough yet. * Saudi Arabia is raising a $11bn 10-year loan, coordinated by ICBC, at +100bp. * S&P affirmed Saudi Arabia and forecasts a sma...

Economics and the problems of India's foreign policy
INDIA · Report · 22 Sep 2023

Foreign policy has traditionally not been particularly important in thinking about India's economics. This has changed, however, as (a) the most important engine of Indian growth is now services exports; and (b) the world of the second globalization, of unrestrained access for poor countries into...

Monetary Council next Tuesday, and the ban on grain imports from Ukraine
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2023

This month's rate-setting meeting is set for Tuesday (September 26). The general expectation is another 100bps cut of the O/N deposit rate, to 13%, given that CPI-inflation is predicted to fall below 13% this month, and so one of the MNB's objectives, to reach a positive real interest rate, will ...

Webinar Replay: South Africa - Outlook from the world stage
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Sep 2023

What does the BRICS Summit mean for South Africa and its outlook? What are the early emerging scenarios for its 2024 National Elections? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Iraj Abedian as he discusses how South Africa's international and domestic politics affect ...

The STF decided that the so-called “time frame” is unconstitutional, Justice Rosa Weber will retire on October 2, and the Prosecutor General’s term ends next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2023

By 9 votes to 2, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) decided, on Thursday, September 21, that the limitations imposed by the so-called “time frame” on the demarcation of indigenous lands are unconstitutional. The topic will continue to be discussed in Congress. Today will be Rosa Weber's last session...

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