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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 25
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Brazil Economics databank Jul 15
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Central America databank Jul 31
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Chile databank Jul 17
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Aug 1
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Ecuador databank Jul 22
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Gulf Countries databank Aug 8
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Hungary databank Jul 21
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Aug 6
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Jul 11
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Economics: Construction boosts GDP growth in the third quarter, while manufacturing stagnates
MEXICO · Report · 28 Nov 2023
Third quarter GDP data released Friday was closely in line with what Inegi estimated roughly a month earlier in the preliminary figures, with the economy growing an annual 3.3% and a cumulative 3.6% for the first nine months of the year. Growth continues to be driven, above all, by the constructi...
Peru: Attorney General under pressure to resign
PERU · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023 · 2 responses
This morning Attorney Marita Barreto, in charge of investigating corruption in the State, raided the homes of two close advisors of Attorney General Patricia Benavides. They found WhatsApp chats between these two advisors and several congress-members and offered evidence that Benavides had been p...
Growth remains solid
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Nov 2023
Indonesia's economy posted an encouraging result for Q3 2023, registering growth of 4.94%, only slightly lower than the 5.17% annual growth for Q2 2023. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy expanded by 1.60%, which followed the regular cycle. While the growth rate for the Q3 w...
Politics: General presidential campaigns de facto underway as FAM campaign struggles to gain traction and MC looks for opening opportunities
MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2023
According to the electoral authority’s calendar, each party’s campaign to choose its respective presidential candidate got underway November 20. But in the latest example of election law's distantly lagging political reality, those pre-campaigns have been unfolding for many months, with the two m...
Interest Rates in the USA, Term Premium and Reflections on Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023
Since Brazil is integrated in international capital flows, the Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions must consider what happens in the United States, and to clarify the importance of this fact, nothing is better than an example. In 2020, against the backdrop of the pandemic, the Federal Reserv...
Polls underscore challenges for the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023
President Lula travels to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany. Leaders in the House negotiate the Tax Reform voting schedule. The Federal Senate may vote on the offshore and sports betting bills. The National Congress may analyze presidential vetoes. This week's Talking ...
Budget deficits grow as FX sales from the National Fund appreciate the tenge and trim revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023
The Ministry of Finance reported that in 10M23, the republican budget deficit reached KZT 2.9trln, while the plan for this period was far smaller (KZT 2.355 trln) as the deficit for 2023, as a whole, assumed the KZT 3.209 total amount. In 10M23, the government financed 78.0% of annual planned exp...
Rates on hold with a loosening bias
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023
Rates on hold with a loosening bias Policy rates remained unchanged today at a level of 4.75%. Inflation has moderated but remains slightly above target, and the economy is recovering in some components of activity. During the press conference, Governor Yaron stressed that monetary loosening will...
Lula travels to Saudi Arabia this week, the president of the House will meet with party leaders to discuss Tax Reform, and a session of Congress is scheduled for Tuesday to analyze presidential vetoes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023
President Lula travels to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Germany this week. He will be accompanied by ministers, governors, and legislators. Participation in COP28 is scheduled for December 1 and 2. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Tax Reform rapporteur,...
OFZ: Temporary improvement
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2023
Recent weeks have been very successful for the OFZ market. Despite the CBR's key-rate hike to 15% at the end of October, the yield growth in government bonds turned out to be limited. At the same time, demand increased in the primary market, which allowed Minfin to boost borrowing. Apparently, in...
Rate stability expected today, with an easing bias
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Nov 2023
1. A rate-hold decision today is likely, with a strong easing bias. This could entail an unscheduled revised macro forecast for 2024, including a lower policy rate forecast. 2. “Broad” unemployment spiked to 10.4% in October; one quarter of all those usually employed were absent from work for ...
Too many “known unknowns”
TURKEY · Report · 26 Nov 2023
The politics section of the monthly raises many questions, but answers few, because “events are afoot”, which could significantly alter forecasts. A more definite local elections and 2024 policy scenario will only take shape in mid-January. This being said, foreign policy turns out to be a mix...
Rate stability expected today (Monday) with a loosening bias
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Nov 2023
Geopolitics: Israel’s operation in Gaza has been put on hold for several days in exchange for the return of hostages. The ceasefire is expected to be temporary although the hostage release priority could delay the renewal of the military operation for longer than initially expected. Low level hos...
Dozens of Russian drones attack Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Nov 2023
On the night of November 24 Russia launched its largest ever air attack on Kyiv. Ukraine said that it shot down 71 drones, which was almost all of them. They were said to be Shahed drones, which are Iranian designed. However, it is thought that Russia now has its own factory to make Shaheds. Ukra...
GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediates Gaza deal, China-Saudi currency swap, Qatar-Bahrain causeway revived
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Nov 2023 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The OPEC+ ministerial has been delayed for four days and shifted online, possibly indicating a lack of consensus. * A Qatar-mediated ceasefire began in Gaza and 24 hostages were released. * The war may have already killed...