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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
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COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The diplomatic crisis between the Dominican Republic and Haiti persists.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Sep 2023
It has now been one week since the onset of the diplomatic conflict between the Dominican Republic and Haiti. On Monday, September 11, 2023, the Dominican Government made the decision to close the land border with Haiti at the Dajabón pass. They formally requested the Government of Haiti to halt ...
Arthur Lira confirms that the government should receive more support in Congress, Pacheco says Brazil is fortunate to have a President who cares about the environment, and the Copom meets today to discuss the interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2023
The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), said that he trusts in a calm coalition and that the government can have a base of between 340 and 350 votes. In other words, this is a positive message for the Planalto Palace that the Ministerial Reform can improve the relationship between the Ex...
Economics: The 2024 budget proposal offers the same administration formula, although holes are increasingly apparent in the gov’t approach
MEXICO · Report · 19 Sep 2023
Earlier this month, as President López Obrador approaches his final year in office, his administration sent Congress a 2024 budget package that was very much true to the tenor of its four previous iterations. It served up the same combination of austerity in many areas of public administration an...
Armenia: Yerevan City Council elections point to rising Armenia risk premium amid already challenging NK backdrop
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 19 Sep 2023
The Sep 17th Citi Council elections signify a considerable loss for the ruling Civil Contract Party. The elections for the Yerevan City Council are in essence a competition for choosing the mayor of Yerevan for the next 5 years. The new 65-seat Council is due to take office on October 10 and mayo...
The last rate hold decision was unanimous, despite concern regarding shekel depreciation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Sep 2023
The last rate hold decision was unanimous but shekel depreciation is worrisome for the MPC. In the protocol of the decision: “the depreciation of the shekel continues to be a significant factor delaying the convergence of the inflation rate back to the target, the shekel depreciation in recent mo...
The surprising results of the 2023 Census and their implications for public policy
PANAMA · Report · 18 Sep 2023
Considering the latest census data, significant demographic trends are emerging in Panama, carrying implications for public policy. The population is exhibiting higher levels of education and is also aging. Women have progressed in terms of their socioeconomic condition, and there is a growing re...
The end of the CPIs favors the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Sep 2023
President Lula will give the opening speech at the UN General Assembly in New York. On Thursday, September 21, the deadline for sanctioning the CARF project ends. In the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the justices resume adjudication of the demarcation of indigenous lands. The Monetary Policy Commi...
Politics: The administration’s political use of public spending and its implications both today and for the next government
MEXICO · Report · 18 Sep 2023
The structure and distribution of the 2024 expenditure budget confirms a longstanding tradition of governments in Mexico and elsewhere of spending heavily for electoral purposes in the run-up to a major election year. The President's political priorities are perfectly expressed in the distributi...
Mixed feelings caused by the July BOP data, once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2023
The preliminary July BOP data has been reported. To make it user-friendly, we are presenting below a table with the key items in ratio-to-GDP terms below, for the first seven months of 2022 and 2023, and also for H1 2023. This format should allow the reader to see what important changes have take...
Fiscal Expansion and the Monetary Policy Error of 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Sep 2023
With the unemployment rate below 8% and strong expansion of household consumption, Brazil’s economy can only be classified as heated. But in light of the looming difficulties of meeting the primary result target for 2024, the government wants to maintain GDP growth, with a corresponding increase ...
President Lula will speak at the opening of the UN General Assembly tomorrow, the STF will resume adjudication of the demarcation of indigenous lands, and the Central Bank is expected to reduce the basic interest rate to 12.75%
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Sep 2023
On Tuesday, September 19, President Lula (PT) will deliver the opening speech of the UN General Assembly, in New York. The next day, he is expected to meet with the President of the United States, Joe Biden. On Wednesday, September 20, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will resume adjudication of t...
Pithy data commentary
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Sep 2023
We comment on the key data and news in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Aug marks third consecutive month of deflation. Armenia: Central bank cut the refinancing rate by 50bpts to 9.75 percent. Armenia: Seasonally adjusted GDP grew in 2Q23 on a QoQ basis. Armenia: IMF lookin...
Russian dry dock in Crimea damaged
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Sep 2023
On September 13 in Sevastopol two dry docks were damaged by Ukrainian drones. A ship and a submarine in it were also damaged. It could take months to repair them and remove the debris. Ukraine used 10 British cruise missiles for the strike. Cruise missiles are very expensive and in short supply. ...
A strong CPI print increases the likelihood of another hike
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Sep 2023
1. Inflation in August surprised on the upside as service price inflation remains elevated. 2. The CA surplus + net FDI fundamentals remain net positive but contracted compared to 2022. 3. Policy rates will most likely move higher in October.
Kazakh economy continued to expand in August
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Sep 2023
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term economic indicator (an aggregate measure of economic activity in six main sectors of the country’s economy) grew by 5.3% y-o-y in 8M23. This rate was the same as in 7M23 implying that in August alone the economy reproduced more or les...