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The CBR hiked the key rate by 100 bps to 13%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2023

The Board of Directors of the Russian Central Bank decided to raise the key rate once again on September 15 and quoted the usual reasons behind this move. Among those are elevated inflation (i.e., above the 4% target), high inflation expectations (the CBR itself expects inflation to move from the...

Diplomatic setbacks and more
TURKEY · Report · 17 Sep 2023

President Erdogan has suffered a string of diplomatic setbacks over the past week, which might adversely affect his mood on the critical US trip. The politics author pays a lot of attention to Erdogan’s foreign policy initiatives, because they are the “icing on the cake” that Minister Simsek will...

Spending plan 2024: assuming a narrower deficit amid dominating uncertainty
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Sep 2023

On September 15, the Cabinet submitted the draft for the 2024 spending plan to the parliament. The design of the 2024 spending plan closely mirrors what we observed last year. The authorities anticipate active military action continuing until mid-2024, leading to a planned reduction in defense sp...

Central Asian countries discuss water shortages and trade
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2023

On September 14 the presidents of the 5 countries met in Tajikistan. This is the 5th summit for Central Asian presidents. They started in 2018. They also invited the President of Azerbaijan. His country is not considered part of Central Asia, but it has a maritime border on the Caspian Sea with T...

North Korean leader tours Russian defense installations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Sep 2023

On September 16 Kim Jong Un continued his tour of the Russian Far East. He went to an aircraft factory and visited a warship.  This is only Kim's 7th visit abroad in his 12 years in power. This underscores the importance he attaches to his relationship with Russia. This is his first trip abroad s...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises in tight market, Sharjah issues sukuk, Oman’s current account returns to surplus, Houthis talk peace in Riyadh
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Sep 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude rose to $94 as forecasts point to a potential Q4 supply gap of over 3m b/d. * The IEA and OPEC clashed over longer-term forecasts; the IEA expects demand to peak this decade. * Turkey criticized plans for an I...

President Lula will speak at the opening of the UN General Assembly next week, the CCJ continues discussions on Tax Reform, and the Central Bank will meet to decide on the basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2023

The presidents of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), will accompany President Lula on his trip to the United States next week. Next week, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) continues with the debate on Tax Reform. On Tuesday, there will be a public...

Webinar replay: China - How risky is shadow banking?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

What are the systemic risks in China’s shadow banking industry today? What constraints will this put on China's future growth? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Andrew Collier discussing the likely risks caused by Zhongrong and the shadow banking industry.

Webinar replay: Turkey and the Gulf - The impact of reconciliation
TURKEY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

How much financing have the Gulf States delivered or pledged to Turkey and to what extent did it stabilize the lira? What are the implications for regional geopolitics? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Justin Alexander (GCC), Atilla Yesilada (Turkey), and Murat...

Inflation in August surprises on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2023

Inflation in August surprises on the upside The CPI in August was up 0.5% m/m (expectations were in the 0.3%-0.4% range) accelerating to 4.1% y/y from 3.3% in July due to a strong base effect. Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) accelerated to 3.9% from 3.6%, and excluding...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Monetary policy gets into a more predictive easing mode
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Sep 2023

This past week was characterized by a host of monetary policy decisions in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The central banks of Armenia and Georgia cut policy rates as broadly expected while monetary authorities in Uzbekistan kept the policy rate unchanged. Next week it will be Azerbaijan’s turn t...

Slide Presentation: China - How risky is shadow banking?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

Get insight into the likely risks caused by Zhongrong and the shadow banking industry with the presentation from our webinar, "China - How risky is shadow banking?".

Signaling continuing pause?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Sep 2023

BSP Governor Eli Remolona told reporters yesterday that he does not see the need to hike policy rates based solely on the spike in prices last month. Markets took the Governor’s statement as a signal that the Monetary Board will leave policy rates untouched when it meets next week. This view like...

Congress approves 2024 budget number, ignoring CARF warning
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023 · 1 response

On September 13, the economic committees of Congress approved the size of the 2024 budget at COP 502.6 trillion (29.6% of GDP), leaving the amount submitted by the Finance Ministry back in July unchanged. From now until mid October, the plenaries of the House and the Senate will continue to discu...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

The ruble remains volatile as messages coming from different sources contradict each other. On the one hand, CBR officials last week directly indicated that it could hike the key rate again. The latter was a hawkish signal and caused some appreciation of the currency. On the other hand, top manag...

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