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Pro-Putin party wins Russian regional elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

On September 14 all the results were in. The United Russia won a handsome victory. It controls the great majority of regional legislatures and governorships. This includes Russian-controlled Ukraine. But United Russia is less popular in the Far East than elsewhere. This is a relatively poor area....

The new members of the ministerial team took office yesterday, the House approved the sports betting regulation bill, and a new schedule for Tax Reform was released yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2023

Yesterday, President Lula inaugurated the new ministers: André Fufuca (Sports), Silvio Costa Filho (Ports and Airports), and Márcio França (Entrepreneurship, Micro-enterprise and Small Business). The PP and Republicanos parties are still looking for more second-tier positions. Yesterday, the Hous...

The NBU cuts the prime rate by an extra 2 ppt down to 20%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

In August, with inflation easing to +8.6% y/y, strong gross international reserves at $40.4 billion (equivalent to 5.4 months of future imports), and a relatively stable FX market, all signs indicated that the NBU Board would cut the prime rate again in September. Experts had anticipated a 2 ppt ...

Macro fundamentals remain shekel positive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

Macro fundamentals remain shekel positive The current account surplus declined slightly in Q2 to 4.2bn USD (sa) from 5.0bn in Q1, but more importantly, the goods/services account surplus increased slightly to 3.1bn from 3.0bn (excluding the primary income which has less of a direct impact on FX f...

Uzbekistan: Central bank keeps policy rate unchanged, adds hawkishness to message
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent. This is the fourth consecutive decision to keep the policy rate at this level since the last 100bpt cut in Mar. After raising the refinancing rate by 300bpts to 17.0 percent in Mar 2022 due to elevated geopolitical ris...

Strong defense exports and weak imports reduce the trade deficit
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Sep 2023

Industrial exports continue to expand parallel to weak import growth. In June-August, industrial exports expanded by 8.2% saar (trend) following growth of 7.5% in the previous three months. Most of this expansion is centered around defense exports (transportation equipment, electronic products) a...

Challenges to taming inflation grow steeper still
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Sep 2023

Inflation trends in Venezuela reflect our country’s challenging dynamics. Various factors are sparking changes in relative prices that in turn are fueling inflationary inertia and hardening the inflation floor, while consumer demand weakness is serving as a ceiling. We’ve been picking up signs...

The new members of the ministerial team should take office today, the government was forced to remove the urgent status of two bills in Congress, and the government is negotiating the vote on the bill on the ICMS compensation payment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2023

The new ministers of Ports and Airports, Silvio Costa Filho (Republicanos), and Sports, André Fufuca (PP), take office today. The parties continue to seek other positions in the government. Yesterday, the government was forced to withdraw the constitutional urgent status of two bills that were bl...

Putin meets North Korean leader
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Sep 2023

On September 13 the leaders met at a space center in the Russian Far East. Putin said they met there because Russia wishes to help North Korea build satellites. He noted that North Korea wants to develop its rocket technology. The US speculates that North Korea will offer Russia shells and missil...

The run-up to the presidential elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Sep 2023 · 1 response

Today, the government will publish August CPI inflation data, which will be an interesting indicator of the current speed that a nominal devaluation of the official FX rate, without a convincing macroeconomic plan, translates into inflation. Expectations for monthly CPI inflation are close to 11%...

Georgia: NBG continues with gradual exit from its tight monetary policy
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 13 Sep 2023

The National Bank of Georgia cut the refinancing rate by 25bpts to 10.0%. This is the third rate reduction since the transition to an easing mode that was initiated in May. The rate cut was anticipated, although there was some uncertainty about the size of the step. The accompanying statement is ...

The Dominican Government announces expiration of offer to purchase and issues USD 1.25 b bond.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Sep 2023

Last Sep 5, 2023, the Dominican Government opened the purchase offer for bonds USP3579ECD78/P3579E CD7 (Reg S) and US25714PEA21/25714P EA2 (144A). These bonds were originally issued for DOP 68,023,000,000 at an annual interest rate of 9.75% and are set to mature in June 2026. Today, the Governmen...

Boluarte still vulnerable; economic risk rises; sticky inflation likely to delay rate cuts until November
PERU · Forecast · 12 Sep 2023

In this forecast report, we discuss different potential scenarios for politics, the economy and the markets. In politics, we focus on the possible outcomes of the efforts of President Dina Boluarte to increase her support. We argue that, rather than developing policy to tackle the problems affect...

Primary in danger?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2023

María Carolina Uzcátegui, former vice-president of the opposition's National Primary Commission (CNP), returned to the public arena on September 7 after having publicly resigned on July 26, 2023. She reiterated her July statement: logistical and operational conditions for the primary election are...

Putin addresses Russian Far East Forum
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2023

On September 12 he was in Vladivostok. He said that Russia has a new generation of weapons. The main state news agency said this alluded to lasers and ultra-sonic weapons. He said that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is failing. He claimed that Ukraine has lost 72,000 soldiers since June 2023. Th...

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