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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Monetary policy update: A return to caution
CHILE · Report · 08 Sep 2023
The September Monetary Policy Report (IPOM) returns to the cautious tone that prevailed prior to July’s Monetary Policy Meeting (RPM). The June CPI led to accelerating cuts, but now the July CPI and the recent depreciation of the exchange rate have caused increased caution, and a slowdown in the ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Activity in CCA is still strong, but signs of a more pronounced slowdown emerge in 3Q
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Sep 2023
As summer draws to an end, we take a snapshot of economic activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia and update the country “cheat sheets” that we introduced in our initiation report in May. We focus on the key issues of growth, monetary and fiscal policy, external position, and political/geopolit...
Georgian Dream wants to impeach the president
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2023
On September 7 the EU asked Georgia to reduce polarization. Georgia applied for EU candidate membership but it might be rejected because of its fraught politics. The decision will be made in October 2023. On September 1 the ruling Georgian Dream Party said it wanted to impeach the president. Geor...
Russian missile kills 17 in Ukraine as US announces USD 1 billion more aid
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2023
On September 6 a missile hit a market in a town in east Ukraine. Ukraine says 17 civilians were killed. It came on the day that the US Secretary of Defense was on a surprise visit to Ukraine. He announced another USD 1 billion for Ukraine. However, this is a rather small amount given that Ukraine...
South Africa’s current account registers a deficit in Q2-2023 as the country’s terms of trade deteriorate
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Sep 2023
An unwelcome economic metric for South Africa came out today as data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) indicates that the country’s current account balance recorded its fifth consecutive deficit during the second quarter of 2023. The deficit on the current account widened further,...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Sep 2023
Aug 25 NBK: The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank has decided to lower the base rate by 25 bps to 16.5% with a corridor of plus or minus 1 pp NBK: The Bank has raised the forecast of the country's economic growth for 2024-2025 to 4-5% per year (vs 3.5-4.5% earlier). KMG: The Company and AD Po...
Good industry data, CPI tomorrow, reports going on holiday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2023 · 1 response
The July industrial output data, reported this morning, actually looks quite good. Output grew 2.8% from June, a nice upturn after a nearly one year long downtrend (chart in volume terms, December 2010 = 100, courtesy of KSH): In yoy terms, output was still down by 2.7% yoy, after -5.3% yoy in Q2...
Medium-term program announced
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2023 · 2 responses
The Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2024-26 was released today, which was presented by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, followed by remarks from President Erdogan.
In Q2-2023, the South African economy managed to record another positive growth result, yet households are struggling
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Sep 2023
South Africa’s quarter-on-quarter real GDP expanded by 0.6% during the second quarter of 2023, following the first quarter’s increase of 0.4% q/q. While the 2Q GDP figure shows another positive increase, in a similar manner to Q1-2023, the magnitude of increase was low, which indicates the South ...
When it rains, it pours
CHILE · In Brief · 06 Sep 2023
Since central Chile has been enduring decades of drought, when it rains the results can be catastrophic. And so they were in mid August, when some 200 mm fell in Santiago and the south-central region where agricultural exports come from. The damage, according to the National Farmers’ Association,...
Lula will try to finalize Ministerial Reform by the end of the day today, the House approved the Desenrola bill yesterday, and the House also approved the urgent status of the ICMS compensation bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2023
Ministerial reform remains stalled. The Ministry of Ports and Airports will be given to the Republicanos party. The PP, however, is reluctant to accept the Ministry of Sports. The party sees the offer as a consolation prize. Yesterday, the House approved a bill that creates the Desenrola program,...
A strong start for September: retail sales and ÁKK
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Sep 2023
To their credit, the government's various branches are not leaving much time for investors to feel bored about Hungary. First, July retail sales was reported this morning. In volume terms, on sda basis, sales fell by 0.2% mom and 7.8% yoy, after a 8.1% yoy drop in June. January-July was a rather ...
Kazakhstan to hold referendum on nuclear energy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023
On September 1 Tokayev delivered a keynote speech in which he said the country would decide whether or not to build nuclear energy. Nuclear energy is a controversial topic in former Soviet countries because of Chernobyl. Kazakhstan has plenty of oil, gas and coal so why does it need nuclear energ...
Firing across ceasefire line kills Armenians
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023
On September 1 the exchange of fire killed 3 Armenian soldiers. A blockade of an Armenian controlled area has been ongoing for months. This has led to several people dying due to a lack of medicine. Azerbaijan is blockading the area. Russia denies that it has lost interest in Armenia. Armenia is...
Russian macro: The new reality—looking at what kind of economy emerges in Russia
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Sep 2023
Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors grew by 3.6% y-o-y in 7M23, and in July alone it was up 7.1% y-o-y. There numbers don’t look extraordinary amid last year’s low base effects but rather indicate that the economy is doing relatively well despite some signs of a deceleratio...