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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Politics: Criminal violence continues largely unabated, at a heavy cost to individuals and entire swaths of the economy
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2023
Although the number of intentional homicides has been falling somewhat in recent years (from a peak daily average of 100.7 in 2020 to 94.8 at last count), the tally remains shockingly high. In fact, in the four and a half years since President López Obrador took office, and facing a little over a...
Pithy data commentary
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Sep 2023
We comment on key data and news events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Monthly economic indicator slows in Jul to 6.0 percent YoY, but remains consistent with our full-year 8.0 percent GDP forecast Armenia: S&P upgrades Armenia to BB- Armenia: Fresh tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh poi...
Cuba claims that Russia has recruited Cubans to fight in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023
On September 5 Cuba announced that it has uncovered a network that persuades Cubans in Russian to volunteer for combat in Ukraine in return for Russian citizenship. Cuba has launched a criminal investigation. Cuba considers this mercenary activity, which is unlawful. Russia has not responded to t...
Lula is expected to finalize Ministerial Reform by tomorrow, the House approved the urgent status of the CMN bill, and the deadline for submitting edits to the investments MP ended yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2023
President Lula is advancing in the negotiations on Ministerial Reform to give government positions to the PP and Republicanos parties. The PP should be given the Ministry of Sports and the Republicanos, the Ports and Airports Ministry. Yesterday, the House approved the urgent status of Bill 2685/...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Sep 2023
The approval of the fiscal framework and the first round of the tax reform have left “debts” that have been negotiated in a type of arm-wrestling match between Lula and Lira, with results increasingly favorable to the latter’s objectives, as expected. The retribution for the approvals has entaile...
Economics: GDP growth remained solid through 2Q, with robust secondary sector and GFI data
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2023
GDP growth remained solid through the first half of the year even as the second quarter expansion proved to be marginally less pronounced than analysts had projected and Inegi had calculated in the preliminary estimates it released at the beginning of August. First quarter GDP was also revised ma...
Musical chairs and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2023
The September 7 holiday will slow activity in Congress. The government submitted provisional measures on the taxation of exclusive funds and tax credits arising from the subsidy for the implementation or expansion of economic endeavors. President Lula travels to India for the G20 meeting. This...
Anemic Growth Outlook
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 05 Sep 2023
For all of 2023, the Venezuelan economy is heading for the anemic growth rate of just 3 percent. Although, after seven continuous years of decline, GDP grew 13 percent in 2022, it lost steam in the second half of 2022 and, at the start of 2023, it faced headwinds. In the second quarter of this ...
August inflation back above 5%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023
Analysts had expected a higher inflation rate for August but the actual number, 5.3%, exceeded the median 4.9% forecast. The relatively sharp 1.1% month-on-month increase in prices can be traced largely to the 2.4% rise in food prices, reflecting notably a 4.9% increase in rice prices, the first ...
Putin meets Turkish President
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023
On September 4 he met Erdogan in Sochi, Russia. The meeting had originally been planned to take place in Turkey but the Russians insisted on hosting it. Erdogan wants to convince Putin to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Russia said it will only revive the deal if sanctions on Russia...
Ukrainian Defense Minister resigned
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023
On September 3 the announcement was made. This jars with Kyiv's recent boasts that it has broken through the Russian frontline in Zaporizhzhia Region. Ukraine boasted that the second and third lines were less formidable and Russia lacked reserves to stop the Ukrainian breakthrough. If Ukraine wer...
Good news from the ECB: no MNB recapitalisation is needed in 2024
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023
Finance Minister Varga announced this morning that the ECB endorsed the government's intention not to carry out any recapitalisation of the MNB in 2024, despite the expected occurrence of about HUF2000bn negative capital in the Bank's balance sheet at end-2023. According to the announcement, the ...
CBRT’s unenviable uphill battle
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023
Consumer prices rose by a near-double digit monthly rate of 9.1% in August (August 2022: 1.5%), significantly higher than consensus forecasts and our own, atop a 9.5% increase in July. The twelve-month rate rose sharply to almost 60% -- 58.9%, to be precise -- from 47.8% in July. Monthly PPI infl...
President Zelenskiy Replaces Minister of Defense to Ease Tensions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023
The news about the replacement of Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov dominated the headlines yesterday. This serves as an excellent example of how the reputation of a corrupt country can have negative repercussions at the most inopportune times. Since the beginning of 2023, Oleksiy Reznikov has...
Rates remain on hold, but MPC concerned about further shekel depreciation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023
Rates remained steady at the September 4 meeting, with the BoI announcement noting that "Inflation is moderating, but is still above the target range, economic activity in Israel remains at a high level but a number of indicators point to some moderation in growth, the labor market remains tight ...