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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Gearing up for an eventful autumn
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2023

Putin finally granted Erdogan a summit in September, which bodes well for the future of “frenemy” relationship, but Erdogan’s hopes of midwifing a second grain deal are probably dead. At home, both alliances are negotiating already about local election alliances, which will be held in March 20...

Top Ukrainian oligarch arrested
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2023

On September 2 Ihor Kolomoisky was arrested on suspicion of fraud and money laundering. He will be held in pre-trial detention for two months. He allegedly illegally sent USD 14 million abroad to other countries. Ukraine is eager to prove that it is cracking down on corruption. There is disquiet ...

A follow up to our monthly report: GDP and Moody's
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Sep 2023

Detailed GDP data for Q2 data was published and Moody's sovereign rating review took place on September 1, Friday. Two days earlier, we said in our monthly report that Moody's might move Hungary to Negative from Stable outlook, both attached to a Baa2 rating. We also said the Q2 GDP data may have...

Russia moving more arms to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2023

On August 31 it was announced by the Russian Space Agency that the Sarmat strategic next generation missile was deployed for combat. Putin described it as invincible. Russian state media avidly reported the deployment. Putin said in June 2023 that the missile would soon be ready. It was supposedl...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises despite Iranian surge, Qatar has Q2 fiscal surplus, Qatar’s GDP strong in Q1 (bar construction), Bahrain prison hunger strike continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Sep 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude rose to $88, despite a surge in Iranian output, on expectations of longer Saudi cuts. * Another Saudi gigaproject was announced, Marafy, a waterfront redevelopment in Jeddah. * The Saudi industry minister visi...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2023

* Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner top brass were killed in a plane crash. * Ukraine’s counter-offensive has made little progress, and Russia is pushing back in NE Ukraine. * BRICS Summit closes with ambitions to rival G7. * Drones forced Moscow airports to suspend flight...

The 2024 Federal Budget was submitted to Congress yesterday, September 7 is a federal holiday, and President Lula will participate in the G20 meeting next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2023

Yesterday, the proposal for the Federal Budget for 2024 was submitted to the National Congress. The bill, prepared based on the new fiscal framework, follows the goal of a zero primary deficit next year as a proportion of GDP. Next week, with the September 7 holiday, we will have a relatively emp...

The Central Bank reduces the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Sep 2023

Yesterday the Central Bank decided to reduce the monetary policy rate from 7.75% per year to 7.50% per year. The rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility was also reduced by 25 basis points, going from 8.25% per year to 8.00% per year. However, the Central Bank opted for a greater reduc...

Growth deceleration and fiscal headaches
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Sep 2023 · 1 response

The three main healthcare insurers wrote a letter to the Minister of Health, and made it public, claiming that they see severe difficulties for their short-term financial viability. The argued that the money transferred by the system was insufficient to meet their costs; that the distribution of ...

Rate-hold decision expected, at least for now
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Sep 2023

1. We expect a rate-hold decision on Monday, with inflation moderation the overwhelming consideration. 2. Much uncertainty remains regarding who the next Governor will be, and we could see Deputy Governor Abir fill the position for quite some time. 3. Private consumption indicators point ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan—The Last MohiKhan and His Successor
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Sep 2023 · 1 response

Rustam Rahmon, Chairman of the Upper House of the Tajikistan Parliament (Majlisi Milli) and son of the President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, paid his first official visit to China in his formal capacity on Aug 21-23. While there were deals signed for a good US$400mn, the focus of Tajikistan wa...

Rate-hold decision expected, at least for now
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Sep 2023

Rate-hold decision expected next week The main factor for the MPC will be recent inflation moderation. Both headline and core have moderated, including goods and services. Growth indicators point to steady but soft growth, relative to 2022. Private consumption growth remains weak and actually neg...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Aug 2023

The CBR's decision to hike the key rate to 12% in mid-August immediately moved the ruble from about R/$101 to R/$93. Markets expected a more moderate CBR move (+200-250 bps), and some overshooting was understandable. By the end of the month, the ruble moved to above R/$ 95. A significant increase...

Growth accelerates in Q2, remains unbalanced
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2023

The Turkish economy expanded by 3.8%, y/y, and 3.5%, q/q, in the second quarter of the year. While GDP growth has been broadly stable in the past few quarters in annual terms (i.e., over the same quarter of the previous year; Graph 1), it has been rather volatile in sequential terms (q/q), postin...

The Senate approved the CARF bill, the House approved the payroll tax exemption bill with some changes to the contribution by municipalities, and the STF will resume adjudication of the demarcation of indigenous lands
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2023

The Senate approved the bill that reinstates the tie-breaking vote in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (CARF). There were 34 votes in favor and 27 against. The text will now be sent to President Lula for sanctioning. The deputies approved the extension of the payroll tax exemption for 17...

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