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New Mining and Energy Minister could just be more of the same
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 03 Aug 2023 · 1 response

President Petro has appointed Andrés Camacho as the new Mining and Energy Minister. He replaces Irene Vélez, forced to resign after allegedly abusing her position as Minister to bypass a requirement to let her son leave the country on a trip abroad; Ms. Vélez was heavily criticized throughout her...

The PP and Republicanos continue to press for space in the ministerial team, the Central Bank reduced the basic interest rate by 0.50%, and the Federal Police wants to hear from Bolsonaro about his alleged intention to hack electronic ballot boxes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Aug 2023

The PP and Republicanos are pressing for space on the ministerial team. Even though the government does not want to give up the Ministry of Social Development, which is responsible for the Bolsa Família program, the PP is insisting on it. In any event, the PT will likely lose space on the ministe...

Forget holistic, let's get simplistic
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2023

Consumer prices rose by a near double-digit 9.5% in July over a month ago, “broadly” in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate markedly rising to 47.8% from 38.2% in June, after 8 consecutive months of decline, as myriad factors, most notably currency weakness and tax hikes took their tol...

Tourism and the housing market: further signs of weakness
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Aug 2023

Before the June data for industrial output and retail sales, due tomorrow, it may be worthwhile to take a look at two areas of somewhat minor importance: tourism and the  housing market. The monthly available indicator for tourism is the number of guests and nights spent at 'touristic accommodati...

Kazakhstan Macro: The too strong tenge is undesirable for the budget and the economy
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 03 Aug 2023 · 1 response

Even though Kazakhstan’s multi-level budgetary system may look a bit complicated, it proved to be resilient to external shocks as in the previous two decades the authorities were able to accumulate enough cash to keep public finances stable at times of financial storms. As the tenge stayed mostly...

Commander of Russian paratroopers said 8,500 paratroopers wounded in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Aug 2023

On August 2 the head of the airborne forces made the statement on Paratroopers' Day. He said that 5,000 paratroopers came back to Russia from Ukraine for medical care but 3,500 chose not to. Presumably those 3,500 were less seriously wounded. He did not give any indication about the number killed...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Aug 2023

In the past two weeks, the ruble has continued to depreciate against major global currencies. On the first days of August, a month which is traditionally associated with greater volatility on Russia's financial markets, it at some point surpassed the R/$94 level, which was last observed in March ...

Russia attacks Ukraine's grain facilities 3 km from Romania
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Aug 2023

On August 2 Izmail on the River Danube was struck by Russia. Exporting Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea now seems impossible. Ukraine wants to export more along the River Danube, which flows all the way from Germany. Russia has already attacked the Port of Odessa. Ukraine said the grain faci...

Argentina’s political and economic landscape in the days before the primaries
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Aug 2023

After becoming the pre-candidate of the government for the presidency, Minister of the Economy Sergio Massa concentrated his efforts on avoiding entering into arrears with the IMF. He did this despite the rhetoric in favor of disengaging from the supervision of that institution by the Kirchnerist...

Kazakhstan’s current account deficit in 2Q23 was a bit deeper than expected
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 Aug 2023

The current account turned deeply negative in 2Q23 ($2.7 bn), which brought the 1H23 deficit to $3.6 bn. Exports were down y-o-y by 12.3% in 1Q23 and 8.8% in 2Q23. Imports grew y-o-y by 41.3% and 24.7% in 1Q23 and 2Q23. The trade surplus shrank from $5.6bn in 1Q23 to $4.1bn in 2Q23. Generally, th...

The economy looks decent in 1H23, albeit inflation accelerates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Aug 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors grew y-o-y by 8.9% and 3.3% in June and 1H23. Earlier Rosstat reported that industry was up by 6.5% and 2.6% over the same periods (also y-o-y). Agricultural output grew by 2.6% and 2.9% (same periods, also y-o-y). These numbers don’t loo...

Public budget amendment bill will increase the deficit for 2023
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 Aug 2023

Yesterday, the Government sent to the National Congress a public budget amendment bill for 2023. According to the Ministry of Finance, the “modifications in the Budget respond to the slowdown in economic growth, which has accentuated in 2023, attributed to various factors such as the decrease in ...

Boric's tax proposal: One more try
CHILE · In Brief · 02 Aug 2023

Recognizing that he lacks the political support to get a major tax reform through the Senate, President Gabriel Boric announced on Tuesday, August 1, a "Fiscal Pact". The first question is, in what way is this a pact, rather than just another tax proposal? With whom did the government pact? Judgi...

The vote on the new fiscal framework was postponed, the rapporteur for the Desenrola bill meets with the Ministry of Finance, and the Copom meets to decide on the basic interest rate (Selic)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Aug 2023

With no decision on the timing of the Ministerial Reform, the vote on the new fiscal framework is no longer expected to take place this week. The postponement of the vote makes it clear that the government needs to include the PP and the Republicanos in the ministerial team. Today, the rapporteur...

Russia hit by more drones
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Aug 2023

On August 1 drones attacked Moscow and hit an office in the financial center. Vnukovo Airport was forced to stop take offs and landings for hours because of the presence of drones. Russia said it brought down 3 drones by shooting them or by electronic warfare. There were also attempted drone atta...

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