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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Georgia: 1H23 growth performance in line with our more constructive outlook for the year
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2023

The Statistical Office reported today that the rapid estimate of economic growth expanded by 7.7 percent YoY in June. The monthly indicator is calculated using administrative data on VAT taxpayers’ turnover, fiscal and monetary statistics. For those sectors, where preliminary monthly data do not ...

Tajikistan: Inflation reaches a bottom in June, set to inch up over 2H23
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2023

Headline inflation rose by 2.4 percent YoY in June, on par with the May print, but core inflation increased slightly to 2.2 percent YoY from 2.1 percent YoY in May. The National Bank of Tajikistan reported the Jun breakdown of inflation, as usual with significant delay. Headline inflation expande...

Armenia: Fitch upgrades Armenia to BB-
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2023

Fitch upgraded Armenia from B+ to BB- citing improved growth prospects and lower public debt levels. The decision was not a surprise for two reasons. First, Armenia was the only country in our CCA coverage where there was some difference in the rating among rating agencies, with Moody's having Ar...

Turkmen population thought to have fallen dramatically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jul 2023

On July 14 the government published census data claiming that there are 7 million people in the Central Asian country. This is up from 6.7 million in 2026. There was a census in 2012 but the data remains a secret possibly because it was so embarrassing. Between 2008 and 2018 about 2 million peopl...

Market volatility in reaction to judicial legislation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2023

The passing of the reasonableness cancellation law impacts markets Last week, markets reacted to the passing of the law cancelling the ability of the Supreme court to overturn government policy if deemed “unreasonable”. Following the decision, the shekel sold off and then stabilized (down 2.3% ag...

The state of the nation (and macro)
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2023

In this last weekly report before the summer recess, the politics author briefly discusses the “state of the nation”. In foreign relations, President Erdogan’s U-turn looks more permanent than his experimentation with quasi-orthodoxy in economic policy. In terms of Gulf funds, there is very visib...

Russian macro: industry to grow steadily in 2023, but capacity issues may hamper future growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jul 2023

Rosstat reported that Russia’s industrial output increased by 2.6% y-o-y in 1H23, by 6.3% in 2Q23 and by 6.5% y-o-y in June alone. Recall that industrial output contracted by 0.9% y-o-y in 1Q23. There are still strong base effects associated with last year's 1H22 shock caused by the special milit...

Kazakhstan's debt market: no change
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Jul 2023

Kazakhstan's debt market remains relatively calm. The growth of interest rates in the US and the EU apparently stopped the government from entering the foreign market in 1H23, even though the CDS spread has decreased by almost 100 bps since the beginning of the year, creating a favorable opportun...

Peru: Boluarte vows for consensus
PERU · In Brief · 28 Jul 2023 · 1 response

Today President Boluarte went to Congress and delivered her annual speech. Being highly unpopular, the speech was an attempt to reach out the opposition and the population at large. Left-wing parties are demanding her resignation, although they do not have the votes in Congress to force an impeac...

Outlook mixed, with traditional politicians contenders
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jul 2023

Costa Rica´s economy presented a mixed balance during H1. On the positive side, the country displayed good momentum in real sector accounts, inflation dropped faster than expected and international reserves increased. On the negative side, economic activity in the definitive regime remained low, ...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s fiscal surplus tops GCC, rates hiked with Fed, Qatar appoints UAE ambassador
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Jul 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The GCC’s aggregate fiscal surplus in 2022 was 5.9% of GDP, the most since 2013. * Kuwait was the last to publish its outturn data, with the largest surplus, about 12% of GDP. * Brent crude touched $84, the highest since ...

Russia offers free grain to six African countries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2023

On July 27 the Russia-Africa Summit took place. Putin promised grain to 6 countries. This came after Russia ended the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Russia will provide up to 50,000 tons to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Eritrea, Somalia and the Central African Republic. Eritrea was the only one of t...

Minister Tebet said she was not informed of Lula’s intention to appoint Márcio Pochmann as the new president of the IBGE, legislative activity will resume on Monday, and pressure for ministerial reform will continue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2023

The Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet, who is responsible for the IBGE, confirmed that she was not informed in advance that economist Márcio Pochmann would be appointed. But she did say she was aware that the position would eventually be filled by the president. This was the last week before the...

Disinflation and the BOP are on track, but fiscal adjustment remains a problem
HUNGARY · Forecast · 28 Jul 2023

The current year is clearly devoted to macroeconomic adjustment, as the government is concentrating heavily on restoring price stability and putting the external and fiscal balances in order, following the serious damage caused by high energy prices and the election-year loosening of spending pol...

The latest cabinet reshuffle
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Jul 2023

A few months ago, the Indonesian government suffered a blow after one of its Cabinet Ministers was detained for a corruption case. The amount involved in the case was more than 8 trillion rupiahs, or slightly more than 500 million USD. The accused minister held the portfolio of Communication and ...

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