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Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Jul 2023

Jul 17 KazTransOil: The company increased oil transportation by 7% y-o-y in 1H23 to 21.4 mln tons Bureau of National Statistics: Industrial production in Kazakhstan in 1H23 grew by 3.8% y-o-y Bureau of National Statistics: Investments in fixed assets increased by 13.1% y-o-y in 1H23 to KZT6.7 trl...

Inflation report presentation: some quick reactions
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jul 2023

The CBRT released the year’s third Inflation Report today, which corresponded with Governor Erkan’s first public appearance. The Bank revised the yearend inflation forecast up substantially to 58% (mid-point), from 22.3% previously, citing several reasons like increases in food and administered p...

Fitch raised Brazil's credit rating to "BB", the Ministry of Finance announced a series of measures to increase access to credit, and Márcio Pochmann will become the president of the IBGE
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2023

The credit rating agency Fitch raised Brazil's credit rating from "BB-" to "BB". The agency took into account that Brazil's macroeconomic and fiscal performance was better than expected. The autonomy of the Central Bank, the pension reform, and especially, the Tax Reform and new fiscal framework ...

The NBU starts easing cycle, cuts prime rate by 3 ppt to 22%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Jul 2023

The recovering economy, slowing inflation, and stabilized FX market have prompted the NBU Board to initiate an easing cycle, beginning with a prime rate cut of 3 ppt, down to 22%. This marks the first rate cut since the large-scale invasion began. The NBU also indicates that further easing is exp...

Pessimistic Western views of the Ukrainian counter-offensive
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jul 2023

Secret German government documents were leaked to the media on July 26. They make depressing reading from a Ukrainian perspective. They gloomily assess that the counter-offensive is making minimal progress but at a high cost and with little chance of a breakthrough. The German military believes t...

Uzbekistan: Central Bank leaves policy rate unchanged, keeps open prospects for rate cuts into year-end
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 27 Jul 2023

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent on Jul 27th. Policy rates have already been reduced and there will be more room for the central bank to cut further this year. After raising the refinancing rate by 300bpts to 17.0 percent in Mar 2022 due to elevated ge...

Moldova expels 45 Russian diplomats and embassy staffers
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2023

On July 26 Moldova made the announcement, saying it was due to unfriendly acts. They have been given until August 15 to leave, which is generous and suggest that they are not suspected of spying; seven days would be the usual time frame to depart under those circumstances. Notably it did not say ...

Does Colombia need to be a superpower in anything?
COLOMBIA · Report · 26 Jul 2023

Economic downturn has implications for the health of supervised credit institutions. Delinquency ratios are on the rise, already resulting in higher provisions, and likely to keep doing so. Profits of some lenders have been affected, especially those more focused on consumer lending; these losses...

The government issued a provisional measure on sports betting, it also submitted a bill on this topic to Congress, and the government continues to negotiate positions to increase support in Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jul 2023

Yesterday, the government published a provisional measure (MP) that regulates sports betting. Companies will have a tax of 18% on revenues, and there will be a 30% income tax charge on premiums that are above the exemption range (R$ 2,112 in 2023). The government also sent a bill to Congress on t...

Russia raises draft age limit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jul 2023

On July 25 the State Duma passed the law. It also forbids draftees from going abroad. Previously males aged 18-27 were obliged to do a year of military service. Now this upper age has been raised to 30. There has been talk of raising the lower age to 21. The co-author of the bill said that the dr...

Azerbaijan: Central bank offers no surprises, keeps policy rate constant, but modifies message
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jul 2023

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan kept the policy rate constant at 9.0 percent on Jul 26th. There was little uncertainty about this decision given the broader message that the central bank has been sending to markets in recent months. While it had signaled the end of the rate-hiking cycle already at...

Building plans amid the fog of war
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Jul 2023

The counteroffensive did not yield significant gains in terrain for two months, sparking discussions about the operation's lackluster progress. However, measuring the progress of the counteroffensive solely in terms of square kilometers of liberated land is not the right approach. The Russians ha...

No surprise from the Monetary Council today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

Fully in line with analysts' widespread expectation, the Council decided to reduce the O/N deposit rate by 100 bps, to 15% today. Simultaneously, the repo rate was cut to 17.5%. The base rate remained unchanged at 13%. By meeting the unanimous analyst expectation, the Council actually met two of ...

Discussions on Tax Reform continue, Lira called for support for Administrative Reform, and Haddad confirmed that the government is looking into ending the Interest on Own Capital (JCP)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jul 2023

Despite the congressional recess, the discussions on Tax Reform continue behind the scenes. Yesterday, at the Business Leadership Group (Lide) event in São Paulo, the president of the House, Arthur Lira, said that he plans to discuss the complementary bills provided for by the Tax Reform Constitu...

Armenia: June GDP data consistent with our upgraded 9.0 percent GDP forecast for the year
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 25 Jul 2023

The June short-term economic indicator has lost some vigor. The June short-term economic indicator, released by the Statistical Office today, grew by 6.8 percent YoY (Graph 1). This is sizably lower than its May read of 13.7 percent YoY, although the 2Q23 GDP print, calculated as the average of t...

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