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S&P affirmed BBB-/Stable, but watch out for the details
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2023

On Friday, July 7, S&P did not change its Hungary sovereign credit rating, exactly as expected. This could be taken as completely market-neutral, but the agency's appraisal was not entirely innocent this time. S&P actually said that its Hungary macro forecast is based on the assumption that the E...

Russia bombards Ukraine as both sides face shortages
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jul 2023

On July 8 Ukraine said 8 or more people were killed when Russia struck a housing area in Donetsk with rockets. Russia maintains it only targets military sites. However, Russia's equipment is faulty, and it could simply be missing its target a lot. Ukraine's counter-offensive is in the south of th...

Zelensky visits Black Sea island to mark 500 days of war
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jul 2023

On July 8 he made a surprise to Snake Island. The 700 m by 700 m island is crucial in ensuring control of the eastern part of the Black Sea. A Russian warship famously asked its Ukrainian defenders to surrender on the first day of the war and they replied, ''Go F*** yourselves!'' Snake Island was...

Zelensky in Istanbul
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2023

On July 7 the Ukrainian President met his Turkish counterpart. Zelensky had been in the Czech Republic on July 6 to thank the Czech Republic for arming Ukraine. Putin's spokesman said that Russia shall follow the talks with a keen eye. He said that Russia really treasures its relationship with Tu...

The House approved the Tax Reform proposal, the votes on the CARF bill and the new fiscal framework were postponed to August, and some members of Congress have vacation trips planned for this weekend, reducing the quorum
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jul 2023

The first round of voting on the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) on Tax Reform was approved by a large margin. There were 382 votes in favor. In the second round of voting, there were 375 votes in favor. The approval of the proposal in the House is a defeat for former President Jair Bolso...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi extends "lollipop" oil cuts, KSA & UAE post strong PMIs, Qatar Airways hits record revenue
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Jul 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia extended its additional 1m b/d oil cut into August, and Russia pledged an extra 500k. * Oil has risen for a second week, with Brent touching $77, still below the Saudi fiscal breakeven. * Iran has attempted t...

South African forex reserves are out of sync with rising external vulnerabilities
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jul 2023

Amidst elevated volatility, including a marked weakening of the rand over the past months, it is clear that the South African Reserve Bank still has no intention of intervening by using the country’s reserves, which include gold and other foreign reserves, as a buffer against foreign exchange pre...

Uzbekistan Primer
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Jul 2023

As Uzbekistan heads into the Sun Preseidential Elections, we have taken this as an opportunity to provide a deep dive into the country. These are our key takeaways: Uzbekistan seems to find itself in a sweet spot as the opening of the commodity-exporting country in 2016/17 has started to bea...

Disinflation met positive expectations in June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2023

CPI-inflation for June was reported this morning exactly as private sector analysts expected, at 0.3% mom, 20.1% yoy, falling from 21.5% yoy in the previous month. In fact, this was also the figure expected by the MNB for June in its recently issued Q2 inflation report, and it was only moderately...

Russia political pandemic update: Perplex, perplex, perplex
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jul 2023

After nearly a year and a half since the start of the special military operation, it looks as though its timing and outcome are becoming less and less clear and obvious. Russia’s standoff with the West is set to last for generations, and what now happens in Ukraine might look secondary for histor...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jul 2023

The attempted military coup accompanied by a further escalation in Ukraine (with some media speculation about a potential “incident” at the nuclear plant) pushed the ruble exchange rate down. Ruble reached the R/$90 mark for the first time since March 2022. The narrowing of the current account su...

The House began analysis of the Tax Reform proposal yesterday, a series of tax changes should take place in 2026, and the Minister of Tourism is expected to resign today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jul 2023

The House began analysis of the Tax Reform proposal yesterday after reading the report of Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB). The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), said that the text could be changed by the time of the vote. The Social Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS) and the Tax...

Forint weakness is driven by EU report, budget, weak retail sales and industrial output
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jul 2023

The forint suddenly weakened by some ten units or close to 3% against both EUR and USD over the last 24 hours. In a longer term perspective, this is not surprising, as EURHUF has become increasingly contractionary over the recent months: in June, its daily average level of 370.72 meant a 6.6% yoy...

China sets up observation station in Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jul 2023

On June 16 Chinese media reported that the station is for climate and environmental monitoring. The Tajik media has not said anything about it, which indicates that the government does not want people to know about it. The station is thought to be part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The s...

On June inflation and a few other things
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jul 2023 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by a somewhat lower than expected 3.9%, m/m, in June, with the 12- rate thus easing to 38.2%, from 39.6% in May, largely owing to – once again -- last year’s elevated base. Producer prices, reflecting a quicker pass-through from TL weakness, rose by a more visible 6.5%, m/m, ...

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