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Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 Jun 2023

Jun 16 Bureau of National Statistics: Industrial production in Kazakhstan in Jan-May grew by 2.4% y-o-y Ministry of Agriculture: Kazakhstan allocated over $220 mln from the State budget for the creation of 65 dairy farms in 2023 Qazaqgaz: The company and Gazprom signed an agreement on the transpo...

Economy continued to recover in May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jun 2023

Recent statistics published by Rosstat suggest that the Russian economy keeps recovering from the groundbreaking 2022 shock and multiple aftershocks that keep coming in the form of regular sanctions. The new data suggest that the output of the five basic sectors grew y-o-y by 2.1% in 5M23 and 8.7...

Russian bombardment of Ukraine allegedly hits restaurant
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jun 2023

On June 28 Ukraine said that 10 people were killed in the attack on Kramatorsk and 61 wounded. Russia said once again that it only ever hits miliary targets. The restaurant serves many soldiers so Russia might consider it military.  Through the weekend of turmoil in Russia, June 24-25, the bombar...

Full-on campaign mode
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jun 2023

At first glance, it seems encouraging that political actors across the spectrum are focused on preparing for the 2024–2025 electoral cycle. But the electoral conditions are such that the elections are unlikely to help resolve the political conflict. The Maduro government is driving the pace of...

The first vote in the TSE was in favor of prosecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro, political pressure on the Central Bank increases, and today is the deadline for changing the new fiscal framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jun 2023

Yesterday, Superior Electoral Court (TSE) Justice Benedito Gonçalves cast his first vote in the trial that could lead to former President Jair Bolsonaro's (PL) ineligibility for future elections. He voted in favor of prosecuting Bolsonaro. Pressure from the political sphere on the Central Bank i...

Revised figures out for Q1; the cumulative BOP picture looks better
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jun 2023

The difference between preliminary and final (revised) BOP data tends to be significant, the main difference being that in the final (quarterly) data, much of the (normally big) errors and omissions balance (deficit) gets distributed between various parts of the BOP. And so it happened this time ...

On your marks, get set…
CHILE · Report · 27 Jun 2023 · 1 response

The April Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) shows that the economic slowdown trend unfortunately continues. The weakness primarily stems from underperforming commerce and stagnant services. Nor is the manufacturing production index offering much reason to celebrate. Consumption continue...

The TSE will adjudicate the case against former President Bolsonaro, Minister Haddad met with the Minister of Labor to discuss the FGTS issue, and President Lula launches the new Harvest Plan
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jun 2023

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will adjudicate a case against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) that could render him ineligible for future elections. He is accused of abuse of political power and misuse of the media due to a meeting he held in July of last year with ambassadors, at the Al...

How will Beijing respond in the second half of 2023?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 27 Jun 2023 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Growth will probably surprise on the upside in the second half of 2023 as Beijing, worried about a disappointing first half of the year, does all it can do to boost economic activity. * But what can it do? Consumption doesn’t seem to be revivin...

Kazakhstan Macro: Public finances remain in good shape
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Jun 2023 · 1 response

Despite recent budgetary amendments, Kazakhstan’s fiscal situation looks stable as the country has enough reserves in the National Fund and runs the 2023 budget with an easily manageable deficit. The authorities have also a theoretical option to increase domestic borrowing in the case of unexpect...

The Copom’s Decision and Definition of the Inflation Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jun 2023

At its last meeting, the COPOM kept the Selic rate at 13.75%, and besides making it clear that “The current context, characterized by a stage in which the disinflationary process tends to be slower and in an environment of de-anchored inflation expectations continues to require caution and parsim...

Economics: Private consumption sustains momentum through April and May
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jun 2023

Last week saw the release of aggregate supply and demand figures showing that private consumption increased 4.5% in the first quarter, a result congruent with the firm GDP growth reported for the same period (3.7%). Even greater increases were reported in consumption of durable and semi-durable g...

Politics: Opposition coalition party leaders poised to announce presidential candidate primary contest
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jun 2023

Following the success of massive demonstrations called by civil society groups last November and February in defense of the INE and democracy, the leaders of the PAN and PRI spent many months stonewalling calls by those same organizers and many others for them to throw open their presidential can...

Best moment of the Lula III government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2023

This will be a slow week in Congress. The National Monetary Council will discuss the inflation target. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is expected to conclude the judgment that could lead to the ineligibility of Jair Bolsonaro for future elections. Lula launches the 2023-2024 Crop Plan and may...

A slow week in Congress, state finance secretaries will meet to discuss the Tax Reform text, and the TSE may adjudicate the case against former President Jair Bolsonaro and render him ineligible for 8 years
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2023

Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), the rapporteur for Tax Reform, presented his report on Thursday, June 22. Today, state finance secretaries will meet to discuss the text. Arthur Lira wants to vote on the proposal before the recess, which starts on July 18. On Tuesday, June 27, the Superior Elect...

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