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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

External Accounts – The Bright Spot of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Feb 2023

The environment is fraught with uncertainties, but in these turbulent waters, the outlook for the external account remains favorable. Although in 2022 the country’s balance of payments was in the red by US$ 7.3 billion (versus a surplus of US$ 14 billion in 2021), the trade balance was positive a...

The cost of the war to Russia one year on
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2023

In February 2022 about 190,000 Russians invaded Ukraine. Later mobilizations and Wagner fighters often recruited from prisons boosted these numbers. Western officials have estimated 180,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian military casualties. Russia gave its death toll as 6,000 in September 2022. O...

MPC responds to the EQ, says it's one-off
TURKEY · Report · 23 Feb 2023

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate by 50 bps to 8.5%, exercising somewhat of a restraint, compared with expectations of 100, in some cases 200 bps reduction -- and our admittedly somewhat loosely formulated, “we would not be surprised if the Bank reduced the policy rate by another 100 bps or so”. ...

Lula will meet with Jean Paul Prates today, the possibility of updating the Mining Code is causing noise in the market, and Lula reacted well to the heavy rains in São Paulo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Feb 2023

On Tuesday, February 28, the PIS and Cofins tax exemptions on gasoline will end. This issue will be discussed in today's meeting. The probability is that the exemption will not be extended. The PIS and Cofins tax exemption on diesel and cooking gas, on the other hand, will run until the end of th...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Feb 2023

Feb 10 NBK: Easing monetary policy in Kazakhstan in the current conditions is impractical said NBK Chairman Mr. Pirmatov Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ): The company and the Arab Abu Dhabi Ports Group discussed the creation of trade hubs in the Kazakh cities of Astana, Alma-Ata and Aktobe Feb 13 KMG...

Industrial output was down y-o-y in January, but less so than in 4Q22
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Feb 2023

Rosstat reported that in January, industrial output contracted by 2.4% y-o-y as the mining segment fell by 4.3% and the manufacturing by 3.0% (also y-o-y). According to Rosstat's estimates, seasonally adjusted industrial output in January decreased by 0.6% m-o-m (though, one can raise questions a...

A quick follow-up on reserves
TURKEY · Report · 22 Feb 2023 · 5 responses

My colleague Atilla has just sent out a piece laying out his thoughts on the currency market and the stock exchange, with some references to our joint work/estimates. I thought, for the sake of completeness and consistency, I should follow up very briefly regarding the reserve numbers and a coupl...

South Africa's Budget Speech 2023 Delivers on Some Key National Priorities- but a Few Thorny Issues Remain Unresolved
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 22 Feb 2023

The much anticipated Budget Speech 2023 was delivered by Minister Enoch Godongwana, highlighting the positive and better than anticipated tax revenue receipts due to better collection capability on the part of the SA Revenue Services (SARS), and sustained by rising corporate income tax largely bu...

Russian macro: decent economic performance in 2022 to increase chances for growth in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Feb 2023

Rosstat reported that nominal Russian GDP reached R151.5 trln in 2022 (over $2.2 trln). It contracted by 2.1% in real terms but gained significantly in dollar terms as, on one hand, high inflation pushed up the nominal GDP figure by nearly 12%, and, on the other hand, the ruble appreciated agains...

Commentary on the exchange rate and Borsa Istanbul
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Feb 2023

I usually express my market views under the alias of Cosmic Strategist in our Weekly Reports. These are not investment advice in any shape or form, but the product of my desire to distill our work on politics and economy to the price discovery efforts for markets. Lately, Cosmic Strategist has be...

Putin and Biden give speeches on the war
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Feb 2023

On February 21 Putin addressed the Russian Federal Assembly. He said that the war was forced on Russia by NATO expansion and a neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine, which is historically Russian. He announced that Russia is suspending START. This is a nuclear arms treaty. Putin said Western sanctions have ...

Economics: Manufacturing exports face complicated prospects with a strong MX peso and a stalling economy
MEXICO · Report · 21 Feb 2023

The peso has performed strongly since last July, rallying almost 23% from its weakest pandemic level to an average 18.7/USD pesos in the first half of February. While the government has claimed credit for this relative strengthening and tried to position the currency as an indicator of economic s...

Politics: Glaring design flaws allow government and many others to disregard court rulings
MEXICO · Report · 21 Feb 2023

When a Yucatan judge recently ordered a halt to all felling of trees and clearing of land to accommodate an especially controversial leg of the federal government’s Maya Train line, the government quickly made it clear that it would continue to plow through the jungle. It was not the first time t...

Special Report: Economic Priorities in Post-war Ukraine
UKRAINE · Report · 21 Feb 2023

The CASE Center for Social and Economic Research has just finished a report “Economic Priorities in Post-war Ukraine”. A group consisting of ourselves and other economists has been working on this over the last 8 months, and it is fundamental research on the issue of post-war recovery. Unlike ot...

BAHRAIN: Finances improve in 2022 but still fall short of a surplus
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Feb 2023 · 1 response

Bahrain's deficit narrowed to -1.1% of GDP as expenditure rose by less than inflation and oil revenue surged 36% y/y. However, oil revenue growth was held back by lower production, and non-oil revenue continues to undershoot fiscal balance plan targets. The deficit is likely to widen in 2023, and...

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