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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Monetary Policy, Inflation and Effects on Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Oct 2022

At its last meeting, the COPOM kept the SELIC rate at 13.75% a year. In the communiqué about this decision, the committee members repeated the alerts expressed after the meeting in September, regarding the uncertainties over the fiscal framework, the high likelihood that the output gap was narrow...

Another rate hike
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Oct 2022 · 1 response

For the past several months, Indonesia's economy has been hit by rising inflation. The Central Board of Statistics reported early this month on the Consumers Price Index for the month of September 2022, which registered inflation of 1.17%, a relatively high monthly rate. Inflation was broad based...

EU chief tells Central Asia he wants better relations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2022

On October 27 the President of the European Council was in Kazakhstan. He said the EU wants to cooperate more with Central Asia. He used his visit to lacerate the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Charles Michel praised Kazakhstan as a partner. It was Michel's first visit to the country. Michel said t...

Russia ends mobilization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2022

On October 28 Russia said it was no longer calling up reservists. In September 2022 Russia called up 460,000 reservists. The Defense Ministry said its target has been reached. The mobilization was supposed to be of men aged 18-35 who had undergone military training already. Even Putin admitted th...

Lula was elected the next President of Brazil, Bolsonaro has not yet addressed the results, and truck drivers organize a blockade of the highways to protest Bolsonaro’s defeat
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Oct 2022

With the tightest result in the history of Brazil, former President Lula will return to the Presidency of the Republic after beating President Jair Bolsonaro by a margin of 2.1 million votes. Now, the market is anxious to find out who will comprise Lula's ministerial team, especially the Minister...

Israel goes to elections tomorrow
ISRAEL · Report · 31 Oct 2022

* Despite political instability in Israel, fiscal responsibility is expected to be maintained. * Growth in Q3 appears to be slowing as exports declined and private consumption growth moderated. * The labor market remains tight, but unemployment ticked higher in September.

Israel goes to elections tomorrow
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Oct 2022

Labor market remains tight, but slightly less  Unemployment increased in September slightly to 3.7% (sa) from 3.5% with the number of employed down nearly 28k.  On the other hand, the number of job vacancies ticked slightly higher. Growth appears to be decelerating modestly Credit card purchases ...

Just another manic week
TURKEY · Report · 30 Oct 2022 · 1 response

The governing alliance seems to have lost the momentum it enjoyed over the summer months, as a key MP defected from AKP, while President Erdogan’s heavily promoted “Independence Day Vision Statement” failed to excite. AKP might be in more trouble, if the opposition claims -- of more defections fr...

Russia suspends grain deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2022

On October 29 suspended its involvement in the grain agreement that allowed Ukrainian foodstuffs to be shipped out via the Black Sea. Moscow ended the agreement it said because of drone attacks on Russian ships in Crimea on October 29. Russia said this was the biggest drone attack thus far. Russi...

Growth and inflation trends mixed
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Oct 2022

The Costa Rican economy is evolving better than expected, despite the adverse external conditions. Recent reversal signals in the downward trend of economic activity during H1 2022 suggest that real GDP growth could be higher than projected. The main driver relates to FTZ exports, including a new...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF announces MENA funds, S&P hikes Sharjah deficits, Shell invests in Qatar LNG
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IEA forecasts lower long-term oil and gas demand because of green investments post-Ukraine. * Saudi Arabia repurchased $1.3bn in bonds but will wait until Q1 to fully allocate its fiscal surplus. * The “Davos in the D...

Today is the last day for electoral advertising on radio and TV, the final presidential debate will be held tonight at 9:30 p.m., and we should have the result of the election on October 30 around 8 p.m.
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2022

Today is the last day of electoral advertising on TV and radio. And tonight, at 9:30 p.m., the last debate between Lula and Bolsonaro is scheduled. It will be held on TV Globo. The debate is unlikely to bring about major changes in the intended votes. Bolsonaro will go into the debate with more p...

The CBR keeps the key rate unchanged
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2022

The Central bank decided to keep the key rate at 7.5% but acknowledged that inflationary pressure remains low. In reality, Russia had m-o-m deflation for three consecutive months in the summer. In September, deflation ended, and CPI grew by 0.05% m-o-m. Inflation y-o-y fell to 13.7%. Rosstat repo...

The National Congress won’t matter to economic prospects as much as many think
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Oct 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The leadership choreography of the National Congress left many people – both Chinese and foreign – increasingly worried about the economic outlook for China. While I have always expected a sharp slowdown in the years ahead and a very difficult adjus...

Webinar replay: Turkey - The election of our discontent
TURKEY · Report · 28 Oct 2022

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar, "Turkey - The election of our discontent" for an analysis of the country's political reality and the likely economic ramifications of the coming events.

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