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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Testing the new governor?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

We had barely made an end-year P55/$ call late last week[1] when the exchange rate shot past P54/$ early this week and closed at P54.7/$ in today's trading. From where we sit, it looks like the selldown of the peso is the market’s way of welcoming the incoming BSP governor, Felipe Medalla, after ...

Pacheco discusses the PEC on Fuels in the Senate, the arrest of former Minister of Education Milton Ribeiro reflects poorly on Bolsonaro, and two more presidential polls will be published today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2022

The PEC on Fuels provides for reimbursements from the federal government to states that reduce their Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) rate below 17%. According to the PEC, the total amount of reimbursements is up to R$ 29.6 billion. The arrest of former Minister of Education Mi...

CBRT meeting: nothing to say, really...
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept its policy rate at 14% (simple), in line with expectations. The statement has little new, other than stating that growth likely remained positive in Q2 (which is also what we see), and that the Bank could do more macro-prudential measures if need be (unsur...

Russian oil refinery attacked by Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2022

On June 22 a refinery 5 km from the Ukrainian Border was hit by a drone. This caused a huge fire but no reported deaths. Russian state media reported the attack, which it said was perpetrated by terrorists. Operations have been suspended pending an investigation at the refinery. It took 90 minute...

Fiscal adjustment is finally moving forward
HUNGARY · Report · 22 Jun 2022

Following nearly two months of apparent inaction, the government came forward with an almost complete fiscal adjustment plan in late May. This must have been prepared behind the scenes while PM Orbán was publicly preoccupied with setting up his new cabinet. To enforce the plan, the government is ...

The economic team opposes changing the law on SOEs, Bolsonaro is unhappy with how long it is taking Petrobras’s Board to approve company’s new president, and the latest poll shows an increase in Lula’s advantage in the election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2022

The economic team believes that a change in the law on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) would not be a good sign for investors and could open a huge legal gap to change other points of the law. Instead, the team supports the adoption of a truck drivers’ voucher and the expansion of the gas voucher....

Kazakhstan tightrope between Russia and the West
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jun 2022

Kazakhstan is in an invidious position as a CSTO and EAU ally of Russia that does not support Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In January 2022 President Tokayev availed himself of military support from CSTO in the face of massive protests. Tokayev attended the St Petersburg Economic Forum and shared...

Belarus engages with OSCE
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jun 2022

On June 22 Belarus announced it would cooperate with inspections by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Belarus has not engaged with OSCE since 2020. Minsk stopped cooperating during the pandemic. The OSCE will not be able to verify Belarus' arms stocks. These are consonant w...

Bold or ill-advised?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Jun 2022

President-elect Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., who will take office at the end of the month, made an unexpected announcement in a press conference Monday. He said that the country is facing a severe enough food supply problem that he has decided to take on the portfolio of the Secretary of Agriculture. H...

CFK calls to continue with the FdT alliance in 2023
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2022

In our last report[1], we interpreted the public reunion between President Alberto Fernández (AF) and Vice-president Cristina Fernández de Kircher (CFK), during the YPF centenary celebrations, earlier this month, as some sort of mutually convenient truce between them. While not representing a tru...

Colombia slide presentation: Colombia's new president
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Jun 2022

Access the pdf fil​e of the presentation​ from the GlobalSource Partners' webinar "Colombia - After the election". Following Gustavo Petro's victory in Colombia's second-round presidential election, GlobalSource Partners' analysts Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discussed the magnitude o...

Kazakhstan macro: Cross-currency rate swings to start reshaping Kazakh foreign trade
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Jun 2022

As in the past several weeks the Kazakh tenge continued to depreciate against the ruble and weakened to KZT/RUB 8.16 following the abnormal strength of the Russian currency, the KZT remained relatively stable against the dollar relative to levels seen before the period of high volatility caused b...

Lithuania blocks some Russian goods going to Kaliningrad
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jun 2022

On June 20 Lithuania said it will not allow certain cargo to go by train through its territory to Kaliningrad which is a Russian exclave. Moscow has vowed that there will be repercussions. Lithuania said it is abiding by European Union sanctions. The EU supports Lithuania's stance. Many goods are...

President Cortizo announced that he suffers from a critical condition that requires specialized medical treatment in the US
PANAMA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2022

A communique published yesterday by the Presidency of the Republic stated that Laurentino Cortizo suffers a condition known as myelodysplastic syndrome of intermediate-range, a type of bone-marrow cancer. Cortizo will continue the treatment of this disease after July 1 in Houston once he complies...

Loosening of the Commitment to the Inflation Target and Risk of Recession in 2023
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jun 2022

In making the projections that follow, we had to overcome several obstacles. The first was the “data blackout” caused by the strike of the Central Bank’s staff. The second was the explicit manifestation of populism by which the presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and Senate have colluded with P...

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